Were Clinton/Trump voters more common than Trump/Biden voters?
E-Dawg:
The swing from Trump to Biden is usually attributed to 2016 non voters & 3rd party voters voting for Biden. So although there was a consistent Biden swing among most places in the country that lead to his victory, they rarely ever exceeded over about 15 points. There doesn't seem to be evidence of Trump/Biden voters really affecting the 2020 election results (outside of maybe New England and Delaware).
On the other hand, in the Rio Grande and Miami-Dade, they were massive Clinton/Trump swings that easily exceeded swings Biden got anywhere in the country, with many obvious Clinton/Trump voters. So I am wondering if there were actually more Clinton/Trump voters than their were Trump/Biden voters, mainly due to Trump flipping a decent amount of Cubans and rural Hispanices. I just can't think of any equivalent demographic group that had a non-negliable amount of Trump/Biden voters. Do you guys think it is likely that Trump flipped more raw voters from Clinton than Biden did from Trump?
South Dakota Democrat:
How would Biden have won, then, if there weren't more Trump/Biden voters? Higher turnout actually seems to have benefited the GOP, so I don't think a turnout differential is the explanation.
Pres Mike:
The swift in the RGV was from first time voters. Hispanic men who never voted before. Miami-Dade and Arkansas was the only place with noticable Clinton-Trump swing.
kwabbit:
Quote from: Pres Mike on August 21, 2023, 10:17:14 PM
The swift in the RGV was from first time voters. Hispanic men who never voted before. Miami-Dade and Arkansas was the only place with noticable Clinton-Trump swing.
The former is a myth created by people who cannot fathom why Hispanic voters in the RGV would've swung to Trump. Were new voters more strongly Trump than established voters? Yes. But that kind of swing almost certainly involved a swing among existing voters stronger than anywhere in the country.
In Starr County it's not like the 9,000 Clinton voters stayed put and all 6,000 new voters went for Trump. It's more likely that the 9k Clinton voters went 6.5k-2.5k Biden/Trump and the new voters were 2.5k Biden 5.5k Trump.
Pres Mike:
Quote from: kwabbit on August 22, 2023, 09:45:13 AM
Quote from: Pres Mike on August 21, 2023, 10:17:14 PM
The swift in the RGV was from first time voters. Hispanic men who never voted before. Miami-Dade and Arkansas was the only place with noticable Clinton-Trump swing.
The former is a myth created by people who cannot fathom why Hispanic voters in the RGV would've swung to Trump. Were new voters more strongly Trump than established voters? Yes. But that kind of swing almost certainly involved a swing among existing voters stronger than anywhere in the country.
In Starr County it's not like the 9,000 Clinton voters stayed put and all 6,000 new voters went for Trump. It's more likely that the 9k Clinton voters went 6.5k-2.5k Biden/Trump and the new voters were 2.5k Biden 5.5k Trump.
I’m not sure what the disagreement is. Your numbers sound right. In the end, the huge increase in turnout of new voters definitely benefit Trump in the RGV. They probably was slight movement of Clinton-Trump voters, but not as pronounced as first time Hispanic voters who support oil/gas or were anti locked down
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