2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

1 million people? do you have the data? I don't think it is such many people work there.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218787/true-battleground-us-china-cold-war-will-be-europe

It's not like they indicate a source but the SCMP article just released came out with a claim that it is 1.2 million

Although most Taiwanese wish to maintain the status quo, the process of cross-strait integration has begun. An estimated 1.2 million Taiwanese, or 5 per cent of Taiwan’s population, lived and worked on the mainland in 2020. So long as mainland China continues to open up, this process won’t stop.

[jaichind]

The KMT will likely begin its internal polls within the week to be used to decide who among Hou and Guo to draft.  Guo has been running around meeting with key local KMT office holders as well as public events to push up his media coverage.  It seems to be working.  There are rumors that he is catching up with Hou both direct matchups as well as relative to Lai and Ko matchups.  If true that creates a headache for KMT Chairperson Chu who will need to persuade the losing candidate to accept the result and back the nominee.  If the polls has it very close between the two that might be hard to pull off.

[jaichind]

KMT says it would announce its 2024 Prez candidate on May 17th.  The KMT office holders clearly prefer Hou while polling most likely favor Hou over Gou but that margin is most likely coming down. Gou doing all sorts of media events and rallies to push up his poll numbers while Hou is focused on working out deals between rival KMT contenders for MP nominations. In other words Hou is focused on KMT insiders. 

Separately, Hou came out against Taiwan Independence and PRC's "one country two systems" formula but was evasive on if he supported eventual reunification through a different formula. 

[jaichind]

Hou and Guo had an unplanned meeting at an event in a major New Taipei City temple.  Guo is well known as a believer in the Chinese traditional folk religion like Matsu and Hou was there due to him being the mayor.  It seems they got along well despite being in an intense behind the scenes battle for the KMT nomination.

[jaichind]

To try to win support from the rural Southern Hoklo areas Guo has started to give speeches in Hoklo.  Main problem is that his Hoklo is even worse than DPP Prez Tsai.  Guo has a mainlander background and does most of his business in the North, PRC or USA so he really never had a chance to learn fluent Hoklo.  It is already pretty cringe watching DPP Prez Tsai giving a speech in Hoklo but it is even worse for Guo.  Like DPP Prez Tsai, Guo usually have to give up in the middle of the speech to switch back to Mandarin.

[jaichind]

To try to win support from the rural Southern Hoklo areas Guo has started to give speeches in Hoklo.  Main problem is that his Hoklo is even worse than DPP Prez Tsai.  Guo has a mainlander background and does most of his business in the North, PRC or USA so he really never had a chance to learn fluent Hoklo.  It is already pretty cringe watching DPP Prez Tsai giving a speech in Hoklo but it is even worse for Guo.  Like DPP Prez Tsai, Guo usually have to give up in the middle of the speech to switch back to Mandarin.

Do you still feel that Hou is the weaker candidate to win the election? Seems like Guo isn't quite catching on.

Hou will be the stronger candidate than Guo.  Guo has a large amount of business on PRC.  Once he is the candidate the DPP will spend the entire campaign going after Guo's "connections" with the CCP.

[jaichind]

Renegade DPP poller TPOF which has a youth, TPP, and slight DPP bias as Hou vs Gou head-to-head at

Hou    42.1
Gou    29.4



           Hou     Gou
KMT      49       38
TPP       39       48
DPP       42       24
Ind       31       18

Gou slightly ahead in the North minus New Taipei city where Hou is the mayor while Hou sweeps the rest by large margins

[jaichind]

There are unofficial and unconfirmed rumors from KMT that KMT Chairperson Chu has decided to draft Hou to be the 2024 KMT Prez candidate. If true how Gou reacts will be critical for if the KMT will have a real shot at winning

[jaichind]

KMT Chairperson Chu met with Hou and Gou separately last night.  This is most likely for Chu to tell Hou and Gou his decision as well as KMT polling data.  After these meetings, various pro-Guo activities planned by pro-Guo forces in the KMT were canceled for today.  Most likely an announcement is coming soon that it will be Hou.

[jaichind]

Guo's main mistake was that he did not go all out to back the KMT campaign in the 2022 local elections.  Hou clearly did and got a lot of support from people who then will become "super delegates" in the KMT nomination process that KMT Chairperson Chu has to take into account.  Gou tried to hedge himself and only decided that he wanted to get the KMT nomination after the KMT sweep in the 2022 local elections and that the KMT had a chance at winning in 2024.  The KMT officeholders clearly remember this.

[jaichind]

KMT nominates Hou.  Guo came out to support this decision and promises to support Hou in the general election.  There are still some disgruntled pro-Guo elements in the KMT.  A pro-Guo member of the KMT Central Committee complained that the KMT polls had Hou with a 2%-3% lead which is within the margin of error.  The pro-Guo KMT Nantou Speaker of the County Assembly threatened to quit the KMT and become pro-KMT independent.  But overall the Guo blowback failed to materialize, unlike 2020.

[jaichind]

From what I understand, Hou is a lot more electable than Gou, as he can appeal to more people outside of the KMT base.

Correct.  But Guo has more money.  If Guo can appeal to the same number of voters as Hou then clearly Gou is the better choice.  Just like in the USA, in ROC one can spend as much of his/her own money on his/her campaign.  That includes spending for the party he/she is running for.  So if KMT nominates Guo then Guo pretty much pays for the entire 2024 KMT campaign.  Guo's ability and desire to pay for the 2024 KMT campaign now will diminish but will for sure be significant.

[jaichind]

It was expected but the ROC Fraternity of Retired Police Officers (which traditionally leans Blue anyway) came out to say they will go all out to back Hou.  Hou was the head of the New Taipei City police before entering politics and used to be the head of the ROC Fraternity of Retired Police Officers.

On the ROC, especially in rural areas, the police and retired police have the broadest grassroots network.  Hou now has at his disposal a very large local network for intelligence gathering on top of the KMT organization.

[jaichind]

Now that KMT has nominated Hou with no blowback from Gou and Ko will run for TPP my guess right now would be something like

KMT Hou     40
DPP Lai       38
TPP Ko        22

The race is really neck-to-neck and could go either way

Ko will either be >20 or <10.  For now, I will assume that Ko will stay about 20.  If Ko falls below 10 I expect that Hou will win by at least 5 as Lai has a high floor but a low ceiling.

If Ko stays about above 20 then I expect the legislative race to be


PR (34)                         KMT       DPP      TPP      NPP      TSP
                                     14          13         7         0         0

TPP surge cuts into NPP vote while pro-independence  PR vote shifts to DPP undermining TSP.   


District(73)                   KMT+     DPP

Special municipalities
Taipei City (臺北市)           6            2 <- DPP only retains Taipei 2nd and 4th
New Taipei City (新北市)    7            5 <- KMT Hou will lead to small KMT overperformance
Taoyuan City (桃園市)       6            0 <- A couple will be very close
Taichung City(臺中市)        5            3 <- most of them will be very close
Tainan City (臺南市)          0            6
Kaohsiung City (高雄市)     0            8 <- KMT will fall short of flipping back Kaohsiung 3rd

Taiwan Province
Keelung City (基隆市)        1            0
Hsinchu City(新竹市)         1            0 <- will be a fun 3-way or 4-way battle again
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)   2             0
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2            0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  3            1  <- all 4 might end up close
Nanto County(南投縣)        2            0  <- I assume KMT can flip back Nanto 2nd
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        1            1 <- KMT Chang faction will make their mark
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0            1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0            2
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0            2
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          0            1 <- KMT could spring a surprise
Penghu County(澎湖縣)       1           0  <- lot of local factors at play but for now KMT flip
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      1            0
Taidong County(臺東縣)      1            0 <- local factors might allow DPP to hold this seat

Fujian Province
Kinmen County(金門縣)      1            0
Lianjiang County(連江縣)   1             0
 
Total District                   41           32

                                    KMT+        DPP
Aborigine seats(6)     
Plains                             2              1  <- DPP retains their seat
Mountains                       2              1  <- DPP retains their seat
 
Total Aborigine                4               2

                                 KMT+        DPP       TPP       NPP       TSP
Total                             59           47          7          0          0

Narrow KMT+ majority.  If DPP Lai pulls off a victory, then flip around 7-8 seats from KMT to DPP which  would be a hung legislature with TPP holding the balance of power.

[jaichind]

PRC-ROC positions of the 2024 candidates

First, DPP Tsai's position would be anti-PRC "Two China" position.

KMT Hou - anti-Independence but also anti-"One Country Two System"  and dodges the "92 Consensus" (which rules him out as a pure One China position like Guo) => this maps to a hybrid One China Two China position similar to the 1996 KMT Lee and 2000 KMT Lien campaigns.

DPP Lai - Oppose 92 Consensus and Taiwan is de facto independent so no need for independence.  Anti-CCP but not anti-China.  Want independent Taiwan to be a fraternal state (like between UK and USA) to PRC.    In theory "One China One Taiwan" but slowly shifting to DPP Tsai's anti-PRC "Two China" position.

TPP Ko - Oppose '92 Consensus" but insists that Mainland China and Taiwan are part of the same family.  Insist on dialogue and compromise with PRC as the only way out of the logjam.  This maps to a pro-PRC "Two China" position

If Lai continues his shift toward a DPP Prez Tsai anti-PRC "Two China" position (nudged by DPP Prez Tsai and USA) then this election might see the narrowest spectrum of top candidates on the PRC-ROC issue.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko is uniquely optimized to capture pro-Green urban progressive youth from DPP Lai which has his base in the rural South.  KMT Hou is uniquely optimized to capture older light Green voters from DPP Lai.  The problem for KMT Hou is that TPP Ko is also taking some light blue your urban voters as well.

If Ko's support declines to below 10% which removes any chances at victory then the pro-Green urban progressive your most likely will not vote but the light blue urban youth will likely tactically vote for KMT Hou.   This is why I rate this race as neck-to-neck if TPP Ko stays about 20% but clearly lean toward KMT Hou if TPP Ko falls below 10%

The campaign will become a battle for the KMT to marginalize TPP Ko without angering his supporters.

[jaichind]

How to accommodate Gou becomes the new problem for the KMT.  There are ideas like having Guo be VP candidate or having Guo head the KMT list on the PR slate and in case of a KMT legislative majority have Guo become Speaker.  None of these ideas sound that good and does not play to Guo's strengths. 

[jaichind]

First post-Hou nomination poll from TVBS

KMT Hou   30
DPP Lai     27
TPP Ko      22

Frankly, the Hou lead is less than I expected.  I would have expected Hou to get a 5-7 point lead which over the next couple of months will fall to a virtual tie with Lai.  We might need some time for the Hou bounce to build so have to look at some of the other polls like Ettoady or UDN when they come out.  But if this is the Hou bounce then I would say that Lai might be the slight favorite to win right now unless Ko has some sort of implosion.  TPP Ko still above 20 during the KMT Hou bounce is a very ominous sign for the KMT.

[jaichind]

A really fishy poll from Deep Green SNTN.  They do polling rarely and most of them are usually during election season and always have DPP within the margin of error in races that it is obviously way behind.  Anyway they have

DPP Lai       29.8
KMT  Hou    29.2
TPP Ko        20.8

This is actually pretty reasonable for a poll with a very strong DPP house effect.  But they then asked about a Hou-Guo ticket and got

KMT Hou-Guo    38.5
DPP Lai             29.6
TPP Ko              16.1

which has the message that getting Guo on the ticket will eat a lot of TPP votes.  I am skeptical of this assertion and seem like a trick poll from SNTN to get the KMT to put Guo as the VP candidate.  That way the DPP can attack Guo the entire campaign over his money and connections to CPP with his business on the Mainland.  There are DPP renegade sources that say that the DPP has a massive "file" on Guo to attack him with and I guess SNTN wants to try to make sure that the DPP gets to use that file.

[jaichind]

Crosstabs for the TVBS poll which was

KMT Hou   30
DPP Lai     27
TPP Ko      22
              
                        Men    Women
KMT Hou   30      31         29
DPP Lai     27      30         24
TPP Ko      22      25         20

Old pan-Blue edge with women voters remain


                         20s      30s       40s      50s       60+
KMT Hou   30      26       19         29        36        35
DPP Lai     27      22       28         25        34        27
TPP Ko      22      43       36         31        17         6

Ko is the youth candidate while Hou is the candidate of the elderly.  Given turnout patterns Ko would want a super high turnout election while Hou would want a low turnout election.


                      no high      high        technical                   graduate
                      school      school         school      college      school
KMT Hou   30     26          35               43            27             22
DPP Lai     27     30          31               17            26             24
TPP Ko      22       5          21              24             33             39

Ko is the high education candidate

 
                         Greater     Greater       Greater         Greater        Greater
                          Taipei       Taoyuan      Taichung        Tainan        Kaoshiung
KMT Hou   30        31            35                29                28               20
DPP Lai     27        28            25                20                30               38
TPP Ko      22        24            23                24                23               21

Interesting that Ko is cutting into Hou's home area of Greater Taipei but also cutting into Lai's home base of Greater Tainan.


                          KMT        DPP       TPP      NPP        TSP        Neutral        Other
KMT Hou   30        80           8          13        5           3              23             19
DPP Lai     27          3         77            4       45         78             18               8
TPP Ko      22        11           8          79       30         14             23              14

Ko cuts into Lai's vote with NPP but cuts into Hou with Neutral and Other voter IDs which traditionally lean toward KMT





2-way

KMT Hou   48
DPP Lai     37


                          Men      Women
KMT Hou   48       50           45
DPP Lai     37       38           35

KMT's traditional gender gap edge with women disappears in a 2-way race.  I guess more progressive youth women that are with Ko would go to Lai if Ko did not run.


                         20s        30s        40s        50s       60+
KMT Hou   48      54         45          55          48        42
DPP Lai     37      38         43          34          41        32

Without Ko in the race age as a factor mostly disappears.  In 2020 Han was a very poor fit for youth voters and Tsai was a very good fit for youth voters.  In 2024 these factors seem to have inverted mostly because of the poor perception of Lai with the youth.


                      no high      high        technical                   graduate
                      school      school         school      college      school      
KMT Hou   48     32          50               67            51            48
DPP Lai     37     36          39               26            37            43

Without Ko in the race, the old pattern of DPP being stronger with those with the lowest and those with the highest education reasserts itself.


                         Greater     Greater       Greater         Greater        Greater
                          Taipei       Taoyuan      Taichung        Tainan        Kaoshiung
KMT Hou   48        48             52               51                46                 39
DPP Lai     37        39             35               29                41                 45

Hou's clear overperformance in the Deep South but underperformance in Greater Taipei is part of his appeal to light green voters but has issues with part of the core KMT base.  In many ways, Hou is KMT's Tsai.  In 2016 and 2020 DPP Tsai clearly appealed to many light blue voters.
                    
                          KMT        DPP       TPP      NPP        TSP        Neutral        Other
KMT Hou   48        94          11         70       17           13           43              32
DPP Lai     37          4          86         21       75           83           28              19

TPP breaking 70-21 for Hou speaks to the fact that TPP is now a de facto light blue party but also speaks to the poot fit Lai is for youth voters.  Hou has no special appeal to youth voters and with Ko in the race most of the large lead with youth voters most of which are light blue and/or TPP voters disappears when they go over to Ko.

[jaichind]

KMT nominating Hou means that for the first time since 1996, the KMT would have nominated a Hoklo vs a Mainlander.  In theory, Lien of 2000 and 2004 is a Hoklo but he was born on the Mainland and had a mainlander mother.  Lien's grandfather was a famous Chinese nationalist and historian of Taiwan.  He got fed up with the Japanese occupation and moved to the Mainland where his son, Lien's father, became a general in the ROC armed forces.  In a similar war in theory Tsai is a Hakka but if you talked to her in the 1990s before she became famous one would be certain that she came from a wealthy Mainland family.    In 2024 for the first time, all 3 major party candidates are Hoklo.  Given the fact that Hoklos form over 70% of the population of Taiwan province, this fact shows the enduring power of Mainlanders in ROC politics.

[jaichind]

Given how much then-famous doctor Ko was involved in Deep Green politics in the mid-2000s it is a shock to have him run as a de facto light blue candidate for Prez leading a de facto light blue party in 2024.  It would be like saying to someone today that in 2040 Ben Shapiro will lead a moderate socially liberal and moderate fiscally liberal third party as the Prez candidate and run a campaign to the Right of the Dems but well to the Left of the GOP.  The response would be "What?!"

[jaichind]

It seems Hou's strategy for dealing with the One China Two China "92 Consensus" issue is to bypass it by saying that he will base his decisions "on the ROC Constitution."    That will take care of Deep Blue since the ROC Constitution is clearly a "One China" Constitution but avoiding saying that is for "92 Consensus" saves him from the DPP attack that "92 Conesusu" is the gateway and is the same as "One Country, Two Systems" which they effectively used in 2016 and 2020.

[jaichind]

The latest UDN poll is ominous for Hou.  He lost ground after being drafted by the KMT.  Chang from April poll

DPP Lai   28 (+1)
KMT Hou 24 (-5)
TPP Ko    22 (-1)

Hou has only 70% of the KMT vote.  Other demographics are pretty consistent with other polls with Hou stronger with the elderly and Ko stronger with youth.  The only saving grace for Hou is that Lai did not go up and Hou's fall is mostly about the pro-Guo vote shifting to undecided.

We will have to see if Guo rallies around Hou.  If so then we should see a Hou bounce.  If Guo does not rally around Hou or if there is no Hou bounce after that then he is in trouble. 

Frankly, these last 2 weeks were not that good for Lai with more DPP scandals. The sitting DPP MP for Yilan had to call off his run for re-election over his being involved in a scam and there are other blowups. For Hou to lose ground during this last mouth is not a good sign for him.

[jaichind]

So there's a real change that Ko can win?

I doubt it but there is a stronger and stronger chance that he will stay above 20% and make this a real 3-way race.

Ko's goal should be to poll above 25% over the next 3-4 months.  I said this before.  If Ko goes below 20% he will fall quickly to below 10%.  Polling above 25% minimizes this risk.

Hou's goal should be to poll above 30% in 1-2 months and he has to poll above 35% by late 2023.  If not more likely than not Ko will for sure go above 25% and most likely sink Hou's chances.