The Minnesota gay marriage showdown

[Torie]

Gotta love that instate/outstate split!

Yeah, that's a cool and fairly predictable map.

Challenge for you (well for anyone, but Lewis is more likely than most people to get it), can you identify the only dark blue State Senate seat on that map that voted for Romney? Or in other words the only blue x that sits in the upper right quandrant on the Senate scatterplot below.

Depending on the exact borders, that Rice/Scott/LeSueur district might be it - should be closeish anyways. If not that, one one the edge of the Twin City Blue area.

Yes, pretty obvious that. Scott is very Pub.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Could use a bit more undulation, but otherwise nice.

But "kugelrund"? This guy('s gut) is kugelrund:

I think Mozart would qualify him as kugelrund... but he's not very g'sund.  (He wrote a song I believe where the words are "sei g'sund und bleib recht kugelrund".. that's where I got the word.  Tender and his Salzburgischness could probably corroborate this.

I looked it up.. it's Bona nox

And the ending is "schlaf fei g'sund und bleib recht kugelrund"... and that's the safe for kids version.  The real version was basically.. "take a sh**t in your bed until it bursts and then sleep well with your ass stuck to your mouth"... what is it with Austrians and toilet humor?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So now a Republican legislator (who actually opposed the marriage amendment) is trying to push a civil unions bill, with the backing of some other Republicans and at least one Moderate Hero Democrat: http://politicsinminnesota.com/2013/04/civil-unions-bill-draws-sharp-reaction

The bill is opposed by the DFL leadership and unsurprisingly the right flank of the Republicans, but it'll be interesting to see how it changes things. Unfortunately as the article notes it likely decreases the possibility of crossover Republican support. The DFL leadership might change their mind if they aren't able to get marriage through, but many are upset because it might make that more difficult.

(I don't have a clue what's up with the Democrat mentioned in the article by the way, her district voted against the amendment and is definitely not an anti-gay place.)

Oh yeah here's a real gem:

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Franson is known for being as crazy as Bachmann, won by only 12 votes in a district Romney won by 17 points, and is currently the second most controversial member of the State House (the most being a guy who came under fire from his own party's leadership for inviting an "ex-gay" to speak at a hearing on the gay marriage bill.) And now she's one of the leaders in pushing for civil unions.

Even the Pope tried using civil unions to stop gay marriage. Argentina went with gay marriage anyways.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FWIW Franson's support might actually be sincere. She's only 36 and belongs to a relatively moderate evangelical church (even though she's tweeted ridiculous stuff like after that DNC voice vote and booing controversy comparing Democrats to denying Jesus mentions in the Gospel and asking how any Christian Americans could support this party...and comparing an obviously Christian prayer by the House chaplain to pagan nature worship because it mentioned Earth Day and the Gulf oil spill) so she might be a bit more gay tolerant than most of her ideological persuasion (unlike Bachmann who was fervently against even civil unions.) It's just kind of shocking to see someone like her take this stand, and telling of how things have come, though it seems like a majority of Republicans are against even civil unions. One justifying his position with the killer unbreakable logic of basically "I believe marriage is between a man and a woman and we should just keep it that way, no need to mess with the state's marriage laws."

[greenforest32]

bump

http://www.twincities.com/politics/ci_23166131/swing-vote-minnesota-gay-marriage-support-bill

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The state house has 134 seats, meaning that 68 votes is needed for a simple majority. Democrats have 73 seats so there is 63 votes in favor at this point (assuming no Democrats aside from the remaining 10 "swing Democrats" oppose it). So it looks like passage of the bill is five votes away in the state house right now.

How many Republicans do you think will support the bill in the state house, BRTD? Last I read there was only one in support but I think that was the state senator you mentioned.

[Ban my account ffs!]

It's clear they're probably gonna need Republican support to get this passed.  Some of those DFLers just won't do it.  I'd hope some suburban Republicans whose districts voted down the amendment would support legalizing gay marriage.  But in the end, more DFLers will oppose than GOPers support.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah I think the Senate is a done deal. The leaders there are confident enough.

The House is kind of tricky. But here's some Republicans to watch:

-Tim Kelly (Red Wing): He's the only Republican who voted against the Amendment still in the House. However he declined to support gay marriage and jumped behind a Moderate Hero civil unions bill instead. I get the impression he doesn't want to be the deciding vote and have to face a mid-term caucus electorate for the endorsement. He's refusing to commit either way to a vote on marriage. His district isn't particularly socially conservative or socially liberal, voted for the amendment but not overwhelmingly, also voted narrowly for Obama while he won by fairly wide margin.

-Jenifer Loon (Eden Prairie): She won big, but the amendment barely broke 40% in her district. Also voted for Romney by about 5 points. You can probably figure out what type of place Eden Prairie is. From I understand she intends to send out 10,000 surveys (that's actually a substantial portion of the district considering Minnesota State House district sizes), and vote based on that, probably figuring opponents will be more likely to fill it out and return it and then use that as an excuse. But this is also a seat where a straight yes/no vote on gay marriage would pass it easily.

-Matt Dean (Dellwood): He's the former Majority Leader. But he also barely got re-elected in a district where the amendment went down. Mind you Romney still won his district, so it's probably just a case that he personally is not popular (considering how much of a train wreck the GOP led House was this isn't a shocker.) So worth watching.

-Tim Sanders (Blaine): Won by a not all that impressive margin in a very swingy district. It voted for Romney, but quite narrowly, and also narrowly voted against the amendment. It's a very swing prone seat though, so if Sanders gets a tough opponent he might consider switching to yes to win over some DFL-leaning Moderate Hero swing voters.

[Holmes]

They have until the 20th to pass this? Heh. Good luck.

[Gass3268]

House vote is coming on Thursday:

http://www.twincities.com/politics/ci_23188690/minnesota-gay-marriage-bill-set-thursday-vote-house

[Ban my account ffs!]

I was very happy to read this.  I have to say.. I like it when the DFL controls everything at the state level.  There haven't been controversies and they've been getting sh**t done.

Of course there is disagreement among them about exactly what path to take... but it's constructive disagreement.

And I have to say I've been more impressed with the GOP.  Rather than being dogmatic and purist, they have criticized the DFL in areas that actually make sense.  For example, rather than just blasting any and all tax increases and moving on... they actually criticized the regressive nature of Dayton's sales tax proposal... instead saying "if we're gonna raise taxes, let's do so fairly."

Almost makes me want to hug a Republican.

[ilikeverin]

Almost makes me want to hug a Republican.

Well is it any coincidence that I, *hughughug*er extraordinaire, am a Minnesotan?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

House vote is coming on Thursday:

http://www.twincities.com/politics/ci_23188690/minnesota-gay-marriage-bill-set-thursday-vote-house

Good sign. I doubt Thissen would bring this up if he didn't have the votes.

[Gass3268]

There will be a live stream here when the debate starts at 1pm ET.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/206728511.html

[Benj]

House vote is coming on Thursday:

http://www.twincities.com/politics/ci_23188690/minnesota-gay-marriage-bill-set-thursday-vote-house

Good sign. I doubt Thissen would bring this up if he didn't have the votes.

Apparently he thinks he does, even without any Republican defectors:

http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2013/05/07/minn-senate-committee-to-review-gay-marriage-bill/

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Why did I think MN was going to pass this without a showdown?  They seem on the lib side to me.

[Brittain33]

All these other states zooming past Illinois which was going to be the "next state" how many times?

[Benj]

They're currently debating an amendment to eliminate all civil marriage in Minnesota and replace it with civil unions. This is amusing.

Edit: The amendment fails, predictably, 22-111, and now to the third reading and final debate.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

All these other states zooming past Illinois which was going to be the "next state" how many times?

We're never going to know how muon2 voted, because the delays look like it's never getting to a vote.

[Marokai Backbeat]

One of the pro-gay marriage representatives looks terrifyingly similar to Stephen Tobolowsky.

[Gass3268]

Based on what I've seen/heard Representative John Persell (DFL) seems like a badass.

[Benj]

Voting now.

Edit: Passes 75-59!

Some Republicans (at least two, if no Democrats defected) voted yes, not sure who. That's despite no House Republicans having publicly stated their support before the vote. There is a public Republican supporter in the Senate, though, and the Senate was generally considered the easier battle. So, yay!

[windjammer]

I'm surprised by the margin

[Hifly]

I saw on the board that Rep Loon voted yes, after hesitating for a bit.

[Benj]

Republicans Loon, Garofalo, Kieffer and Fitzsimmons voted yes. Democrats Fritz and Sawatzky voted no. All others voted with their parties.

[Marokai Backbeat]