Democrats will lose in 2020

[Person Man]

Didn't we think Obama has 0% shot at winning re-election in 2012 because i mean the economy so bad and he's so unpopular folks? Let's wait and see how 2018 turns out before we cry our eyes out.

Well, he was elected at the start of a business cycle. He was elected at the end. I think the only reason W kept Congress was because of 9/11. I think he still would have won without but probably by not as much.

[Person Man]

if trump is able to push through his infra-trillion, a recession would be postponed anyway.

The big risk for him is a commodities bubble due to tariffs that pops and lets Dems rebound in the farm states and swing Texas for good.  I doubt it would pop within 4 years, though.  

A reccesion cost the Rs in 1982, but the recovery was already under way by 1984. We almo must remeber that we have been expanding for 7.5 years.


If Trump turns out to be a typical modern President, he will lose Congress. The last one to hold on to all of the Government was FDR and the last Republican, Grant. It seems the key for the GOP in the past was to keep changing guys.

[Person Man]

I'm not necessarily saying that Sanders would win, but "His Economic score is less than -5, therefore he can't win!" is a terrible argument.

I always wanted to know at what score, certain controversial positions would exceed 50% support...but that seems a fool's errand.

[Person Man]

Pick a pro-life, tax cuts, pro business and anti illegal immigration Democrat, I will vote for him/her.

OK, here:

Yeah. That is pretty much what Trump is. Outside of personhood, unions, the environment, taxes, and civil rights, he is a Democrat.

Though who knows what he will do with personhood. He probably has participated in abortion and used the excuse of a friend developing a good relationship with an accidental child as the reasons of him supporting personhood. He claimed this just two years before his first contemplated run in 2012.
The other things are pretty much set in stone, though. And who knows about the war thing. He has nominated a neocon cabinet and talks about colonizing our enemies after theoretical wars by "taking their oil" but was elected through the rigging of the election by foreign powers in exchange of promises of a policy of appeasement towards them. 

However, he is a Democrat through and through on tariffs, globalization, LBGTQ issues, and still says things good things about PP even during the primaries.