Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[Diouf]

It's Minister of Culture Hadia Tajik from Ap. The first Muslim minister in Norway, and the youngest ever as well. She's only 30 years old so probably a bit too young for Stoltenberg

The two others are the leaders of the other government parties. Audun Lysbakken from Sv and Liv Signe Navarsete from Sp

[Diouf]

H 42 %
Frp 40 %
V 35 %
Ap 31 %
KrF 29 %
Sp 25 %
MDG 17 %
R 14 %
SV 14 %

Pretty much as expected, but thought that the two first ones on my list would be the other way around. However, there were not really that many questions about immigration, law and order etc which I think might be the explanation. That would also explain why Venstre was somewhat higher than expected

[Diouf]

The Norwegian FRP is in my opinion the least right-wing off the Scandinavian far right parties. FRP started as a tax protest/populist party in the seventies as the Danish FRP did. The danish FRP became the more nationalist and anti muslim. The swedish SD however grew out of the racist and extreme right BSS and Sverigepartiet. They call themseleves social conservatvie but many off the grassroots are still nationalist and there is a conflict there. The finnish PS is populist and somewhat nationalist but not that hardcore. Both PS and DF are memmbers off the Euroskpetic EFD but the Swedish SD is cooperting with the French FN and would join a far right group in EP.

From left to right
FRP (Norway) PS (Finland) DF (Denmark) SD (Sweden)

Very well explained. Though I'd probably list DF to the right of SD, despite SD's more racist roots.

You could argue that way; it will be completely dependent on which criteria you choose. If you talk about general status with the other parties; i.e. if they are considered "toxic" for the other parties, then DF is probably the most left wing. If you look at the current state in the societies and what policies they are actually proposing, then you might be right in saying that DF is the most right-wing as Denmark has the tighest immigration rules of those countries currently. But then again, even the Danish Socialist People's Party would probably be regarded as racist and to the right of every non-SD Swedish party on immigration so I'm not sure how appropiate the latter method is.

[Diouf]

My prediction:

29% Ap (-6%)
26% H (+9%)
15% FrP (-8%)
  7% KrF (+1%)   
  6% V (+2%)
  5% Sp (-1%)
  5% SV (-1%)
  3% MdG (+3%)
  2% R (+1%)
  2% Others

Turnout: 78% (+2%)

Government: 39%
Opposition: 54%

BTW: Would MdG and R enter a coalition with the current left-wing government if they passed the 4% barrier, or would they remain out of a coalition ?

R would support a left-wing government from the outside, quite similar to Enhedslisten in Denmark. However, Rødt seems quite more dogmatic than Enhedslisten, so it will be a less stable supporting party although a socialist party will always be quite reluctant to withdraw support completely.

MdG has said that they don't support any of the blocs, but that they will choose the side where they can get the most influence, especially on environmental policy. They have, however, said that they do not want to cooperate with FrP. Whether they would join a goverment or support it from the outside probably depends on the specific negotations after an election.

[Diouf]

SV is falling closer and closer to the threshold. They will probably only get a district mandate in Oslo, and perhaps one in Akershus, so a result below 4 % will be a catastrophe. That will also mean that a couple of ministers will not even make it into parliament. Also party leader Audun Lysbakken will miss out on a seat if they get below the threshold.

The early voting from Oslo shows that Miljøpartiet de Grønne will definitely get a seat; it looks more doubtful for Rødt.

[Diouf]

If possible, will the Progress Party, Conservative Party, and Christian Dems try to form a coalition without the Centre Party?

Do you mean without the Liberal Party? The Centre Party is a part of the centre-left government. It is quite hard to predict what the new government will look like; the most likely is perhaps a Conservative-Progress government supported by the Christians and the Liberals.

[Diouf]

TV2 just had SV down at 3.9 % which will mean 2 seats. One in Oslo for Minister of International Development Heikki Holmås, and a bit surprisingly one for party leader Audun Lysbakken in Hordaland.

[Diouf]

They're stronger in Oslo than the rest of the country; does that mean they'll probably make it?

Most of the prognosis count in that they are stronger in Oslo than in the rest of the country, so it will be important whether their losses are lower there than elsewhere. Perhaps it could be to their disadvantage if MdG has gained much more in Oslo than elsewhere

[Diouf]

The Venstre leader seems quite purposeful in going for government posts. She said in the party leader round that "she didn't campaign for others to go into government, and that she believes that you get more influence within a government". The KrF-leader was not as clear but the two parties will probably follow each other. This points more towards a four party government; will be some exciting weeks

[Diouf]

The turnout is now reported as being at least 77,6 % which is an increase since 2009 where it was 76,4.

[Diouf]

After a few weeks of exploratory negotiations, Høyre has now decided to continue concrete government negotiations with only Fremskrittspartiet. Kristelig Folkeparti og Venstre have committed itself to backing the government, but have opted out of joining the government.