Is it just me, or does Trump seem untouchable?

[Republican Michigander]

As a GOP County chair (population 180,000) with a large tea party base and a large "traditional conservative" base, I don't see Trump making it. He's not trusted. Some like that he's blunt, tells off the media, tells off the media's favorite McCain, and gives the DC political class heartburn, but when push comes to shove, they aren't voting for him.

He may be "leading" in a meaningless August poll, but he also has the highest negatives among "R's" in that same poll. He also has 99% name recognition, compared to a Scott Walker for example.

His base of support is disaffecteds who don't always vote, and who rarely are active on the ground supporting a candidate. They usually don't donate. They usually don't volunteer. They post online. That's it. People confuse them with "Tea party." That's not the case and is due to media laziness. The only Trump supporters I see that are super active outside of disaffecteds are single issue borders types.

The moderates I've talked to tend to support Kasich, Jeb, or Walker (gets things done), sometimes Rubio. Not Huckabee, who is probably the most liberal Republican running. Trump offends them.

The traditional conservatives  tend to support Walker, Rubio, or Kasich (with reservations on a couple of issues). They don't trust Trump.

The religious conservatives love Cruz. Trump's mouth offends them. Some of them like Ben Carson as well.

Libertarian Republicans like Rand Paul.

2nd Amendment folks want to defeat Hillary (or O'Malley). They don't trust Trump on past statements.

The tea party conservatives tend to be split between Cruz, Rand Paul, and Walker (strongly dislike Jeb and Karl Rove) based on which area of issues is most important to them. A couple are Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina fans. They are extremely rigid on a lot of issues, but do their homework. Trump's donations are a major concern to them. Every tea party is different, but the ones in my area aren't Trump folks.

I could be wrong, but I'll be stunned (and disappointed) if Trump's the nominee.

[Republican Michigander]

I would vote for Trump in the GOP primary if the primary were held today.  I confess to being something of a RINO, but I'm still a Republican primary voter, and I am a social conservative.

I, too, would be stunned if Trump were the nominee.  I can't say I'd be disappointed, because the political establishment has provided the kind of free trade policies that caused the loss of manufacturing jobs in Michigan.  (My wife is from Michigan and I'm from New York, so we know about disappearing manufacturing jobs.)  Yes, we can bad-mouth unions, but it was the greed of the investor class, coupled with free trade agreements that took jobs that the Southern states stole from Michigan and New York and shipped to Mexico and China, courtesy of NAFTA and GATT.  And the bulk of the GOP candidates were OK with this.

You're a local party chair.  So you must see how the national GOP, over time, gave its corporate donors everything they wanted in exchange for rivers of campaign cash.  Part of that the corporate donors wanted was free trade so they could export jobs (which they did, and do).  You've seen what Pat Buchanan observed; the GOP gave their corporate donors everything they wanted, and they got the campaign cash, but it cost them the voters that gave them their landslides.  They lost Middle America for the GOP.  They lost Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and the industrial Midwest. 

You probably know that you can't win elections in Michigan without getting the votes of at least SOME unionized workers, and not just the ones that go to church.  Trump is talking to THOSE people, people who once delivered Michigan to the GOP 5 Presidential elections in a row.  They left in 1992 and they aren't back.  Some have died, but the younger ones like them aren't back, either.  Trump has the gumption to let these people know that their own party has screwed them.  As a registered Republican, I would like to know where the grass roots pushback is against free trade, which has ruined Michigan.

I'm from a union family. I don't support those trade agreements. If you took a poll of the grassroots in my party, you'd find a lot more opposition to those that people would think (not a majority, but significant minority).

That also said, the unions haven't done a damn thing for us in 25 years when they sold us out to back their democrat corporate masters (you read that correctly). Clinton signed NAFTA and GATT. The union leadership continued to back them to go to the correct cocktail parties. They sold out on outsourcing contract time as well. Unions became about politics instead of contracts. A lot of us with ties to non government unions know that.

These days, the big union strength in Michigan are as much about government unions instead of auto unions. The MEA is the big one these days.  A lot of people gave up on trade. I couldn't vote when NAFTA was signed. Granholm also hurt the democrats here as much as the two President Bushes (W's second term esp, along with his dad) hurt the Republicans here.
 
I agree there's openings for a "jobs" candidate in the Midwest. A lot of things have changed, but Michigan is still a pocketbook state first that is center-left economically and center-right socially. The "do ones job" issues matter the most. I think Kasich may be the most electable candidate here. I wouldn't bet against Walker either.