GA : Trump leads everybody according to Mason Dixon

[Frenchrepublican]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/477491-trump-tops-leading-2020-democrats-in-georgia-poll

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump leads Biden 51/44
Trump leads Buttigieg 52/43
Trump leads Sanders 52/42
Trump leads Warren 54/40

So much talk for Blue Georgia......

[Queen Isuelt]

Democrats don't want to believe it but there in for a massive shock in 2020.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

these numbers are horrible for democrats,

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Mason-Dixon is a god awful pollster and has been for years, people.  Jesus...

JUNK IT

[Sir Mohamed]

GA will be competitive in this election with a slight Trump advantage. These numbers shown here are an outlier unless confirmed by more polls.

[Gass3268]

Remember when Mason-Dixon stopped polling Virginia in Fall of 2012 because they said that it was lock that Romeny would win and it wasn't worth their resources? Good times!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA was never a Lean D state

[Zaybay]

Why does Mason-Dixon get numbers that seem to have been shifted 7 points to the right?

[wbrocks67]

It would make no sense for Democrats to lose worse than Hillary did, so yeah... no

[Frenchrepublican]

Mason-Dixon is a god awful pollster and has been for years, people.  Jesus...

JUNK IT

They were pretty accurate in the 2019 gov races as their numbers tracked closely the results in all the three states, now I agree that these numbers are clearly too rozy for Trump who will win GA by ''only'' 4 to 6 points, but still the ''gEoRgIa iS A sWiNg sTatE'' folks should try to be a bit less arrogant when talking about GA politics

[Cinemark]

Yeah, Arizona is primed to flip. Georgia might take a few more cycles.

[Gracile]

There is no way the Democratic nominee will lose GA by ~10 points.

[Frenchrepublican]

Crosstabs :
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Mason-Dixon_GA.pdf

[DrScholl]

Mason Dixon has been horrible since they screwed up Florida in 2012. Considering that every statewide race was decided by single digits in 2018 included the SoS runoff it's incredibly unlike that Trump will win the state by more than 2016. And their Virginia poll is really suspect too.

[Pollster]

A few signs of a right-skewed sample here, and my guess is it has something to do with the educational attainment breakdown of the sample, which is not detailed in the report.

This poll has Trump doing about the same with independents as he did against Hillary when he won the state by a narrower margin than every head to head shows here. Abrams won independents by 10 points.

This poll has Trump keeping it fairly close among women and even leads Warren among women, which is a huge stretch. Clinton won women by 11, Abrams by 2 (the ÇNN numbers for gender in this race are a bit of a headscratcher all around) but regardless this type of performance would be a major deviation from national trends. A sign that college-educated voters (college-educated women perhaps especially) are underrepresented here.

I would guess Trump is ahead here by a handful of points, but not to the extent this poll posits. Ålso, if this sample is as skewed to the right as it seems, its an even bigger warning sign for Loeffler against Collins than originally though.

[MT Treasurer]

cxs018/Assemblyman Smith: This poll confirms my 2016 was a one-off narrative, so Trump +14 in Georgia is a totally believable result.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, Arizona is primed to flip. Georgia might take a few more cycles.

I mean, this is literally the only poll showing Trump winning GA decisively, but okay...

[swords]

A few signs of a right-skewed sample here, and my guess is it has something to do with the educational attainment breakdown of the sample, which is not detailed in the report.

This poll has Trump doing about the same with independents as he did against Hillary when he won the state by a narrower margin than every head to head shows here. Abrams won independents by 10 points.

This poll has Trump keeping it fairly close among women and even leads Warren among women, which is a huge stretch. Clinton won women by 11, Abrams by 2 (the ÇNN numbers for gender in this race are a bit of a headscratcher all around) but regardless this type of performance would be a major deviation from national trends. A sign that college-educated voters (college-educated women perhaps especially) are underrepresented here.

I would guess Trump is ahead here by a handful of points, but not to the extent this poll posits. Ålso, if this sample is as skewed to the right as it seems, its an even bigger warning sign for Loeffler against Collins than originally though.

A sign of a left-skewed sample here

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Mason-Dixon_GA.pdf
DEMOGRAPHICSPARTY IDENTIFICATION:
Democrat    212 (34%) Republican   217 (35%) Independent or Other 196 (31%)

According to 2018 GA Governor Exit Poll, it was Democrat 33% Republican 38% Independent 28%

[😥]

Obviously Georgia isn't Lean D and isn't Tossup. Democrat nominee will be very lucky to win it. I can see Georgia flipping only if Biden is nominee and only if 2020 is massive Democratic wave

Trump has some advantage here. In next few cycles, Georgia will flip
For now, Lean R. Also, more likely to flip than TX

But Trump isn'f going to win GA by 10%. He would win it by 4-6% against Sanders and by 1-3% against Biden

[Pollster]

A few signs of a right-skewed sample here, and my guess is it has something to do with the educational attainment breakdown of the sample, which is not detailed in the report.

This poll has Trump doing about the same with independents as he did against Hillary when he won the state by a narrower margin than every head to head shows here. Abrams won independents by 10 points.

This poll has Trump keeping it fairly close among women and even leads Warren among women, which is a huge stretch. Clinton won women by 11, Abrams by 2 (the ÇNN numbers for gender in this race are a bit of a headscratcher all around) but regardless this type of performance would be a major deviation from national trends. A sign that college-educated voters (college-educated women perhaps especially) are underrepresented here.

I would guess Trump is ahead here by a handful of points, but not to the extent this poll posits. Ålso, if this sample is as skewed to the right as it seems, its an even bigger warning sign for Loeffler against Collins than originally though.

A sign of a left-skewed sample here

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Mason-Dixon_GA.pdf
DEMOGRAPHICSPARTY IDENTIFICATION:
Democrat    212 (34%) Republican   217 (35%) Independent or Other 196 (31%)

According to 2018 GA Governor Exit Poll, it was Democrat 33% Republican 38% Independent 28%

None of these are significant enough deviations - 33/38/28 D/R/I is well within the poll's margin of error.

Topline numbers also don't matter if the subsample is the problem, as it appears to be with independents.

[ON Progressive]

Interesting to see Mason Dixon releasing a poll from 2004 in 2020.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

A few signs of a right-skewed sample here, and my guess is it has something to do with the educational attainment breakdown of the sample, which is not detailed in the report.

This poll has Trump doing about the same with independents as he did against Hillary when he won the state by a narrower margin than every head to head shows here. Abrams won independents by 10 points.

This poll has Trump keeping it fairly close among women and even leads Warren among women, which is a huge stretch. Clinton won women by 11, Abrams by 2 (the ÇNN numbers for gender in this race are a bit of a headscratcher all around) but regardless this type of performance would be a major deviation from national trends. A sign that college-educated voters (college-educated women perhaps especially) are underrepresented here.

I would guess Trump is ahead here by a handful of points, but not to the extent this poll posits. Ålso, if this sample is as skewed to the right as it seems, its an even bigger warning sign for Loeffler against Collins than originally though.

To add on to this, the racial crosstabs are interesting because they have a much lower undecided rate for white voters than for black voters (only 3-4% undecided among white voters).

They have 30% of the sample as being black voters (which would be about right), 62% as white. To get the overall outcomes though, that implies that "other" race either is split between D and R by about 50-50 (they don't show this crosstab), or else they are weighting the black vote at lower than the 30% sample.

So basically, this poll appears to show Trump having consolidated the white vote and white voters all having made up their minds, while they have non-white voters are more up-in-the-air (or else they are underweighting the AfAm vote).

[Xing]

I mean, Trump is favored in GA, but I seriously doubt he's up by that much unless he's winning decisively. I also doubt that he'd win 10% or more of Democrats.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

To add on to this, the racial crosstabs are interesting because they have a much lower undecided rate for white voters than for black voters (only 3-4% undecided among white voters).

They have 30% of the sample as being black voters (which would be about right), 62% as white. To get the overall outcomes though, that implies that "other" race either is split between D and R by about 50-50 (they don't show this crosstab), or else they are weighting the black vote at lower than the 30% sample.

So basically, this poll appears to show Trump having consolidated the white vote and white voters all having made up their minds, while they have non-white voters are more up-in-the-air (or else they are underweighting the AfAm vote).

And to add on a bit further, the racial crosstabs here are actually surprisingly consistent with 2016, given the toplines, and actually have Dems doing a bit better with White voters than Clinton did in 2016.

In 2016, Trump won white voters in GA by about 75-21 or 74-21 or so.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/georgia/president

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12vkVEn1pzqHfUmNGu8PDmdU70a8PSpWRhuY0Zlq8Pjk/edit#gid=996890142

But in the crosstabs for whites, Trump is winning whites by a few points less/Dems doing a few points better than Clinton in 2016 among white voters.

So if one is willing to assume that the Dems consolidate the black/non-white vote, even this Mason-Dixon poll is actually entirely consistent with GA being at least as competitive as it was in 2016, and probably a bit more so.