NH-Gov 2024: If You Knew Sununu Like I Knew Sununu

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D

It's Lean D Ayotte is old News

[President Johnson]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly Ayotte runs.

Supposedly, she wanted to run for governor in 2022 if Sununu ran for senate, but had no interest in returning to the senate.

Not sure if she would win a primary in todays GOP.

Agreed, it seems like Ayotte is gearing up to run if Sununu doesn’t. Ayotte would probably be the GOP’s best candidate for the general election if Sununu declines to run, but I’m also not confident she’d win the primary.

Agreed as well. If she wins the primary though, I'd start out with a Lean Republican rating.

Why? As senator she didn't have any kind of crossover appeal and she ended up losing by 0.1 point, not overperforming Trump in the slightest

Senate election are still somewhat different from gubermatorial elections. Ayotte is definitely not a far-right wacko and I could easily see her appealing to enough Biden for president voters to be elected governor. Sununu's election results didn't come out of nowhere and New Englanders still seems to like moderate Republicans in the governor's chair.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is no blue wave right now but everyone knows that NH is the Gov we are gonna flip next Nov, Ayotte has been out of office for 7 yrs now and if Brown is already ahead in OH and we are competing in NC, KY, LA and MS G there is a blue wave brewing as I always say wait for the wave

If there was a red wave Rs should be leading by 60% in LA and leading by +10 in NC, KY and LA, it's not a blk state like MT but white females in competetive races vote 55/45D there are more females in this country than men that's why Harris not Newsom will be Prez in 28

[Morning in Atlas]

Lean D

It's Lean D Ayotte is old News

But with Craig, essentially this

[Duke of York]

What are the odds Sununu declines reelection?

[Morning in Atlas]

What are the odds Sununu declines reelection?

70%? Sununu is pretty clearly leaning one way but the guy has always talked out of both sides of his mouth. I would not be surprised if he waited another year.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/JamesPindell/status/1681701039769001984

[Roll Roons]

Expected. Obviously the Republicans' chances in this race are much tougher without him, but I'm not counting them out just yet.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/NewHampJournal/status/1681702546904084480

[Devils30]

Most organizations will rank it as tossup but its more like Lean Dem now.

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/JamesPindell/status/1681701039769001984

I cannot say I’m surprised in the least.

Likely D, especially given it’s also a Presidential year

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Huge W for NH Dems if they can flip this one.

[Zedonathin2020]

fmr. Senator Kelly Ayotte IN

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1681709075116195840?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo...

[2016]

Expected. Obviously the Republicans' chances in this race are much tougher without him, but I'm not counting them out just yet.

Former U. S. Senator Kelly Ayotte is IN and it has already been mentioned that Voters seem to be pretty happy having Moderate Republicans running New England States like Governor Sununu, Governor Baker and Governor Scott + Larry Hogan.

[JMT]

fmr. Senator Kelly Ayotte IN

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1681709075116195840?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo...

Hmm, why does her statement say she “seeks to challenge incumbent Governor Joyce Craig?” Is this supposed to be a 2026 announcement lol

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1681712076308217859?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/adamsextonwmur/status/1681712607110258690?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

[Holmes]

Big pickup opportunity for Dems. Ayotte is really the only person Republicans have left in New Hampshire that can compete statewide. If Dems pick this one up, they might be entering a wilderness period.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1681723174776389640?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

[Oryxslayer]

Big pickup opportunity for Dems. Ayotte is really the only person Republicans have left in New Hampshire that can compete statewide. If Dems pick this one up, they might be entering a wilderness period.

Given how the Executive Council and State Senate district maps are gerrymandered as much as the states partisanship will allow, the NH GOP losing everything would be a hard albeit not impossible occurrence.

- The State House may flip in a few weeks via special election. But the reality is that unwieldy chambers functioning won't dramatically change until 2024 gives someone more than a 1 seat majority.

- The Gov seat is now open and competitive.

- Senate and executive council likely require the current partisan gerrymandering case Brown v. Scanlan before the NH Supreme Court (argued on State Constitutional grounds similar to recent cases in NC/WI/PA/KS/NM/UT) to rule in favor of the plaintiffs. Given the state's partisanship and geography, any normal map will have more Biden seats on both than necessary to flip the chamber.

If this does not occur, the state would require a system shock similar to the NY Senate in 2018 to lurches local partisanship in line with national, something that I doubt can occur in a presidential year.

[Spectator]

Starts as Lean D even with Ayotte. She seems overrated and couldn’t hold on even as Clinton and Trump were effectively tied.

[Nyvin]

Last I knew Ayotte was hardcore anti-abortion and New Hampshire is one of the most pro-choice states in the country.   I really don't see her winning governor.

[DaleCooper]

Kelly Ayotte won a Senate seat nearly 14 years ago and lost it in a favorable year for her almost 8 years ago. I feel like this happens every 2 years where a legacy candidate comes back to try and win a state that has passed them by and they pretty much always lose. I don't know the state too well so I won't commit to a bold prediction, but I don't see why Ayotte would be anything better than a tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is up 12 52/40 and NH 1/2 are Safe D compared to 22 why do you think Sununu is retiring because he doesn't want to run in a Prez yr

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Kelly Ayotte won a Senate seat nearly 14 years ago and lost it in a favorable year for her almost 8 years ago. I feel like this happens every 2 years where a legacy candidate comes back to try and win a state that has passed them by and they pretty much always lose. I don't know the state too well so I won't commit to a bold prediction, but I don't see why Ayotte would be anything better than a tossup.

Women are perceived as more liberal/moderate then men