538 model & poll tracker thread

[Horus]

The model looks a shade too Biden friendly but unlike most, Silver realizes Minnesota is more gop than Michigan.

[Horus]

The Emerson poll dropped the average *0.6 points*.

Remember the HarrisX poll that was +9 this morning? literally didn't move the average at all, not even 0.1.

How does that work?

Emerson has an A- rating

[Horus]

Today we had three national polls which showed Biden ahead by 12, 10, and 9 points.
And yet 538's aggregate remains stuck at 7.5. I don't know about you but this starts to look absurd to me.

Silver is accounting for the shy Trump vote.

[Horus]

Idk if this is just me but I feel like ever since the conventions, the majority of blue bubbles are above Biden's actual % in the tracker and most the the red bubbles are below Trumps %. It kinda seems like there tracker is more reactive to polls that show "good news" for Trump, even if they aren't the most reputable pollsters. If you take out the lines and just look at the bubbles you would think Biden would be at more like 51.5% and Trump would be 42%.

Better quality polls are showing a closer race and once again, Silver adjusts for shy Trump voters.

[Horus]

Biden up a % point to 78% today.

"good polling day for the president"

I mean, it was. Biden's chances edged up because time is running out, not because polls were super favorable for him.

[Horus]

With the addition of today's USC tracker, Trump has reached a new low. He now has just an 18/100 chance of winning.

[Horus]

Trump is now down to 12.

[Horus]

Trump continues to hover around 12%-13% on their model. I would have thought that it would have started to drop by now, given that early voting is surging and time is running out.

He has improved by maybe a point this past week so the forecast is steady.

[Horus]

Trump continues to hover around 12%-13% on their model. I would have thought that it would have started to drop by now, given that early voting is surging and time is running out.

He has improved by maybe a point this past week so the forecast is steady.

What good does one point do when he's behind by almost ten points nationally though?

I don't think 538 should try and speculate who is winning based on the early vote, but the fact that it is happening is significant, because it underscores how little time remains for Trump. Since they factor in weird things like newspaper headlines, you'd think they'd factor this in too.

A point can mean a lot, and I don't think Trump is down ten. The shy Trump vote is real. And it's probably not factored in because outside of NV the EV really just tells us about enthusiasm and little else.

[Horus]

Biden is now up to 89 in the model with the addition of the ABC WI and MI polls.

This is the highest he has been yet.

[Horus]

Trump has dropped to 10 in the model.

[Horus]

With a little under a day and half to go until polls begin to close in Kentucky and Indiana, Trump has, for the first time this election, reached the single digits. His chances in the model sit at 9.

[Horus]

With a little under a day and half to go until polls begin to close in Kentucky and Indiana, Trump has, for the first time this election, reached the single digits. His chances in the model sit at 9.

Donald Trump has a 100% chance of winning, especially when Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Clarence Thomas, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett rule that all mail-in ballots are unconstitutional and violate the 14th Amendment Equal Protection Clause on November 20.

This is also true.