538 model & poll tracker thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

They are doing the absolute most though to still say that Trump has a chance. Yes, does he have a chance? of course. But Biden has a +9 lead in the polls right now, which is major. And yet we're still hearing the takes of "BUT TRUMP CAN STILL WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!!!"

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1273594200014102530

He can, though.  It's still four months and change until Election Day. 

Things can change and it does the Democrats no favors to be complacent. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out by Nate Silver

Take what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the election is going to be held today. It spits out that Biden has a 93 percent chance of winning.

I think the problem that the pundits are encountering is them all assuming the "race will tighten" towards Trump by Election Day.

Yes, that *COULD* happen. But I'm not sure why that is the sure-fire CW, when it could easily go both ways.

I think it's generally based on the statement: "Since and including 1976, polling averages rarely trend in the direction of the candidate leading at this stage in the cycle".  

https://mobile.twitter.com/baseballot/status/1293214167231594496?ref_src=twsrc%5...

In all but two election cycles since 1976 (Obama in 2008 & 2012), the nat'l polling average at this point in the race tightened in the direction of the trailing candidate.  In some cases, the swing from the 11th of August to Election Day was quite dramatic (such as Carter in 1976 - - he experienced around a 20 pt. swing).  In others though - - such as Reagan in 1984 & 1988, it wasn't nearly enough to matter.

It *is* worth noting that the leading candidate at this stage has gone on to win in the general in ~73% (8/11) election cycles.

And before anybody hits the panic button or starts gloating about "the polls are wrong again/shy Trump voters/Trump bump incoming!!!", it's imperative to restate that this is not a normal election cycle (and that also goes for anybody who believes Biden is a shoo-in, too).  Neither candidate has been able to campaign in a conventional manner and a US Presidential election has never been run during a pandemic of this scale.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

20% Polling
30% Voting patterns
50% BS

Wait...wait, I'm confused.  Is your signature a part of the post or...?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The reckoning has begun

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1293593884677877761

Silver vs. Morris -- now THIS is something that I didn't see coming in 2020. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I will never...EVER get tired of that meme template, Crumpets.  Well done!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

.

Maybe the model briefly became self aware, decided that Nate had added way too much uncertainty this year, and tried to assert itself.

I'd like to think it's the former. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Biden up a % point to 78% today.

We did it, fellas!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Georgia sits at a tie (49.6 all, though it's red on the snake-chart); ME-02 has flipped blue (Biden 49.4-49.0). 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520

South Carolina dragged it's northern brother back across the red-state line.

"Oh no no, we're in this together."