Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

Pauta Politica projects that AMLO bloc will win 70 out of 128 Senate Seats and 310 of 500 House seats.  I think this projection assumes PANAL does not make it past 3% but PES does.

[Bacon King]

I thought a party could only win a max of 300 seats in the lower chamber?

[jaichind]

I thought a party could only win a max of 300 seats in the lower chamber?

Well AMLO bloc is 3 parties (MORENA,PT,PES).   There is also the 8% rule which says you cannot get a seat share more than 8% greater than your PR vote share.  Of course AMLO divided up the 300 FPTP seats into 150 MORENA 75 PT 75 PES which de facto worked around this rule.

[jaichind]

Mexico's 'AMLO' offers migration cuts in Trump call

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexicos-amlo-offers-migration-cuts-trump-call-192528451.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

I thought a party could only win a max of 300 seats in the lower chamber?

Well AMLO bloc is 3 parties (MORENA,PT,PES).   There is also the 8% rule which says you cannot get a seat share more than 8% greater than your PR vote share.  Of course AMLO divided up the 300 FPTP seats into 150 MORENA 75 PT 75 PES which de facto worked around this rule.

I assume MORENA got most of the safe seats while PT and PES got those that were harder to flip?

[jaichind]

I thought a party could only win a max of 300 seats in the lower chamber?

Well AMLO bloc is 3 parties (MORENA,PT,PES).   There is also the 8% rule which says you cannot get a seat share more than 8% greater than your PR vote share.  Of course AMLO divided up the 300 FPTP seats into 150 MORENA 75 PT 75 PES which de facto worked around this rule.

I assume MORENA got most of the safe seats while PT and PES got those that were harder to flip?

I do not believe this is true.  See

A glance at the MORENA-PT-PES agreement http://repositoriodocumental.ine.mx/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/94367/CG2ex201712-22-rp-5-2-a1.pdf

seems to indcate that this was not the case.  It seems MORENA-PT-PES mostly divided up the seats on a 2-1-1 basis pro rated across the board. 

If one takes the 2015 MORENA vote share performance and look at large states where MORENA did well (Mexico City, Oaxaca, and Veracruz) it seems the breakdown are

Mexico City - MORENA 11, PT 7, PES 6
Oaxaca - MORENA 4, PT 3, PES 3
Veracruz - MORENA 10, PT 4, PES 6

If then we look at the state that MORENA did poorly in 2015 (Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacán, and Nuevo León) the breakdown are

Guanajuato - MORENA 10, PT 2, PES 3
Jalisco - MORENA 10, PT 4, PES 6
Michoacán - MORENA 6, PT 4, PES 2
Nuevo León - MORENA 3, PT 5, PES 4

So other than Nuevo León  there seems little correlation between strong MORENA states vs weak MORENA states.   In fact I am very surprised at the distribution in Mexico City where MORENA-PT-PES is poised to sweep the state and yet MORENA yield 13 out of 24 seats to PT-PES.  One argue that MORENA perhaps gave away seats within each of these states where MORENA are weaker in.  A superfical glance does not seem to indicate this and one can argue that Mexico City MORENA is strong across the board and yet gave away 13 out of 24 seats whereas in Guanajuato MORENA is weak across the board yet MORENA took on 10 out of 15 seats all of which seems unwinnable for MORENA-PT-PES.

I think what is going on is AMLO got to pick the 75 PT and 75 PES candidates so it really does not matter which party label they ran under.

[jaichind]

Prez vote, with 75% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    54.73%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        23.20%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  16.72%
El Bronco                           5.35%


Senate vote, with 72% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms) (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                        District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.64%        55            15             70
PAN-PRD-MC                    28.91%        28              9             37
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              23.40%        13              8             21
IND                                   2.05%


House vote with 72% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)  (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                       District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.46%       218           92            310
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.03%         67           59            126
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              24.52%         15           49             64
IND                                   0.99%

If PES and PANAL goes below 3% then MORENA-PT-PES will be flat in terms of seats while PAN-PRD-MC will gain a 1 seat from PRI-PVEM-PANAL in Senate and 3 seats from PRI-PVEM-PANAL in the House.

[jaichind]

All 9 governor race status (all non-null)  (Guanajuato‎ and Yucatan PREP now down)

Yucatan (78% in)
PAN-MC               40.39%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  37.11%
MORENA-PT-PES   20.60%
PRD                       1.90%


Tabasco (100% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   64.28%
PAN-PRD-MC        20.24%
PRI                      12.30%
PRI rebel                2.08%
PANAL                   1.11%


Puebla (98% in)
PAN-PRD-MC       39.75%
MORENA-PT-PES  35.64%
PRI                     19.31%
PVEM                   5.30%


Chiapas(79% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   42.33%
PVEM                   22.95%
PRI-PANAL           21.71%
PAN-PRD-MC        10.21%
PRI Rebel               2.80%


CDMX (89% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   48.08%
PRD-PAN-MC        31.76%
PRI                      13.30%
PVEM                     3.97%
IND                       1.23%
PH                         0.98%
PANAL                   0.68%


Jalisco(78% in)
MC                        40.42%
MORENA-PT-PES     25.23%
PRI                        17.27%
PAN                       11.09%
PVEM                      2.87%
PANAL                     2.04%
PRD                        1.08%


Veracruz (92% in)
MORENA-PT-PES    44.94%
PAN-PRD-MC         39.34%
PRI-PVEM              14.57%
PANAL                    1.15%


Morelos (95% in)
MORENA-PT-PES    54.38%
PAN-MC                14.47%
PRD                      12.15%
PRI                        6.18%
PRD rebel               4.98%
PVEM                     3.83%
PANAL                    2.44%
PH                         1.58%


Guanajuato‎ (87% in)
PAN-PRD-MC        51.41%
MORENA-PT-PES   25.23%
PRI                      13.26%
PVEM                     7.14%
PANAL                   2.95%

[jaichind]

I can see AMLO calling fraud in the Puebla Governor race which so far is (non-null)
PAN-PRD-MC       39.75%
MORENA-PT-PES  35.64%
PRI                     19.31%
PVEM                   5.30%

In the Prez race in Puebla so far it is (non-NULL)
AMLO                 59.73%
Anaya                 20.43%
Meade                15.88%
El Bronco              3.97%


In the Lower House vote it is (non-null)
MORENA-PT-PES  48.52%
PAN-PRD-PT        27.60%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  23.88%


In the Senate vote it is (non-null)
MORENA-PT-PES  50.72%
PAN-PRD-PT        26.35%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  22.93%

Where the PRI-PVEM-PANAL Congressional vote seems fairly aligned with the PRI/PVEM performance  in the Governor race but there seems to be massive vote splitting by the Congressional MORENA-PT-PES  vote for the PAN governor candidate which happens to be the PAN incumbent's wife.

[Skye]

Anyone with a link to the results of the overseas vote by country? I can't seem so find it at the Prep page.

[Antonio the Sixth]

MORENA lost another Senate seat.

[Republican Left]

Why didn't "El Bronco's" campaign get a lot of traction, it appears that even the North was sweep up by the ALMO "revolution" but I thought that the more developed North is more "conservative" or at least PAN affiliated than the South, could El Bronco have ran a regionalist campaign which could have exploited a possible North-South divide within the country? It appears that ALMO fever is everywhere. Or did the Anti-Amloites really shoot themselves in the foot?

[jaichind]

Why didn't "El Bronco's" campaign get a lot of traction, it appears that even the North was sweep up by the ALMO "revolution" but I thought that the more developed North is more "conservative" or at least PAN affiliated than the South, could El Bronco have ran a regionalist campaign which could have exploited a possible North-South divide within the country? It appears that ALMO fever is everywhere. Or did the Anti-Amloites really shoot themselves in the foot?

I view AMLO 2018 as Willie Stark's second election campaign in All the King's Men.  AMLO 2006 established him as the anti-system candidate like Willie Stark's first close but failed campaign.  But this election it seems he made all sorts of deals with those he claims to oppose and got the old PRI machine vote to come to him in addition to the anti-establishment vote.  El Bronco ultimately is a Right Wing anti-establishment force and most of what could go El Bronco went AMLO.  This is the power of AMLO this election. He got the anti-establishment vote in an anti-incumbency year  PLUS a good part of the establishment Old PRI vote.

[jaichind]

Nuevo Leon has flipped to AMLO. Anaya now only leading in Guanajuato

I suspect when all the votes are counted NL will flip back to Anaya.

[jaichind]

Prez vote, with 89% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    54.59%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        23.22%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  16.89%
El Bronco                           5.30%


Senate vote, with 85% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms) (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                        District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.57%        54            15             69
PAN-PRD-MC                    28.87%        29              9             38
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              23.54%        13              8             21
IND                                   2.01%


House vote with 85% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)  (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                       District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.40%       218           92            310
PAN-PRD-MC                    29.00%         67           58            125
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              24.64%         15           50             65
IND                                   0.96%

If PES and PANAL goes below 3% then MORENA-PT-PES will be flat in terms of seats while PAN-PRD-MC will gain a 1 seat from PRI-PVEM-PANAL in Senate and 3 seats from PRI-PVEM-PANAL in the House.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So, Obrador is the first President elected with actual majority since 1988 (or 1982, since 1988 results are in question to say the least).

[jaichind]

Looks like PREP is done.  PREP seems much worse this year with a lot of outstanding votes and being very slow.  Wed night they will start the real official count

Prez vote, with 94% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)    54.60%
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)        23.20%
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  16.91%
El Bronco                           5.29%


Senate vote, with 92% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms) (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                        District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.60%        54            15             69
PAN-PRD-MC                    28.85%        29              9             38
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              23.55%        13              8             21
IND                                   2.00%


House vote with 92% of the vote it is (in non-NULL terms)  (current seat guesses assuming all parties cross 3%)

                                                       District        PR           Total
MORENA-PT-PES               45.40%       218           92            310
PAN-PRD-MC                    28.98%         67           58            125
PRI-PVEM-PANAL              24.66%         15           50             65
IND                                   0.96%

If PES and PANAL goes below 3% then MORENA-PT-PES will be flat in terms of seats while PAN-PRD-MC will gain a 1 seat from PRI-PVEM-PANAL in Senate and 3 seats from PRI-PVEM-PANAL in the House.


For a party to be registered and not be disbanded, it must win 3% of the "PR" vote in one of the 3 races (Prez, Senate, House).  The "PR" vote is calculated (I think) by removing all NULL and Independent vote and then calculating the vote share of each party.  If we go with that then the "PR" vote for each race are

Prez
 PAN         PRI       PRD     PVEM      PT       MC    PANAL   MORENA  PES
19.43%  14.71%  3.12%  1.96%  6.39%  1.94%  1.18%  48.34%  2.92%

Senate
 PAN         PRI       PRD     PVEM      PT       MC    PANAL   MORENA  PES
18.87%  16.82%  5.72%  4.71%  4.04%  4.85%  2.51%  39.98%  2.51%

House
 PAN         PRI       PRD     PVEM      PT       MC    PANAL   MORENA  PES
19.02% 17.24%  5.63%  4.99%  4.10%  4.61%  2.66%  39.20%  2.54%

As one can see PANAL and PES are in trouble with both not going above 3% in any of the 3 races.  PES at 2.92% in the Prez race could potentially get above 3% there in the real count as that would still be in the margin of error.  Unless PREP vote count are very skewed against PANAL there does not seem to much hope for it to cross 3% and will end up being de-registered. 

[jaichind]

PREP seems to be "done" in all 9 governor race status (all non-null)   

Yucatan and Guanajuato‎ PREP both crashed and it seems never came back.  Yucatan claimed that its problem was due to a hack.
https://www.proceso.com.mx/541322/falla-el-prep-en-guanajuato-y-yucatan-verificado-2018

Yucatan (81% in)
PAN-MC               40.08%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  37.03%
MORENA-PT-PES   20.95%
PRD                       1.95%


Tabasco (100% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   64.28%
PAN-PRD-MC        20.24%
PRI                      12.30%
PRI rebel                2.08%
PANAL                   1.11%


Puebla (98% in)
PAN-PRD-MC       39.70%
MORENA-PT-PES  35.71%
PRI                     19.30%
PVEM                   5.29%


Chiapas(91% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   42.28%
PVEM                   23.21%
PRI-PANAL           21.42%
PAN-PRD-MC        10.33%
PRI Rebel               2.76%


CDMX (97% in)
MORENA-PT-PES   48.20%
PRD-PAN-MC        31.69%
PRI                      13.24%
PVEM                     3.96%
IND                       1.24%
PH                         0.99%
PANAL                   0.68%


Jalisco(79% in)
MC                        40.42%
MORENA-PT-PES     25.26%
PRI                        17.24%
PAN                       11.09%
PVEM                      2.86%
PANAL                     2.04%
PRD                        1.09%


Veracruz (94% in)
MORENA-PT-PES    44.88%
PAN-PRD-MC         39.38%
PRI-PVEM              14.59%
PANAL                    1.15%


Morelos (95% in)
MORENA-PT-PES    54.38%
PAN-MC                14.47%
PRD                      12.15%
PRI                        6.18%
PRD rebel               4.98%
PVEM                     3.83%
PANAL                    2.44%
PH                         1.58%


Guanajuato‎ (87% in)
PAN-PRD-MC        51.41%
MORENA-PT-PES   25.23%
PRI                      13.26%
PVEM                     7.14%
PANAL                   2.95%

[jaichind]

If you look at the vote by non-null vote by party in each race you get

Office     PAN         PRI       PRD     PVEM      PT       MC    PANAL   MORENA  PES       IND
Prez      18.40%  13.93%  2.96%  1.86%  6.05%  1.83%  1.12%  45.78%  2.77%  5.29%
Senate  18.49%  16.48%  5.60%  4.62%  3.96%  4.76%  2.46%  39.18%  2.46%  2.00%
House   18.83%  17.08%  5.58%  4.94%  4.06%  4.57%  2.64%   38.82%  2.52%  0.96%

Which tells you that the Congressional PAN voter mostly held firm and voted Anaya.  There were large scale defections of PRD and MC Congressional voters for AMLO either under the MORENA or PT line but not for the PES line.  There we also significant defections from the PRI PVEM and PANAL Congressional voters to either AMLO or El Bronco.  The levels of defections from the PVEM MC and PANAL Congressional voter were especially large as more than half of those voters defected in the Prez vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like PREP is done.  PREP seems much worse this year with a lot of outstanding votes and being very slow.  Wed night they will start the real official count

Wait, you mean Sunday and yesterday's count was just for show, and they have to start over and count all the votes again?? And that the process will be even slower?? what the christ

When can we hope to actually have semi-official results?

[jaichind]

Looks like PREP is done.  PREP seems much worse this year with a lot of outstanding votes and being very slow.  Wed night they will start the real official count

Wait, you mean Sunday and yesterday's count was just for show, and they have to start over and count all the votes again?? And that the process will be even slower?? what the christ

When can we hope to actually have semi-official results?

Yes.  What PREP does is to take in all the unofficial counts and then add them up and show them to the public.  There will be tons of mistakes along the way in terms of double counting and missed votes.  The goal of PREP is to prevent mass rigging of results since PREP will store all the images of unofficial results from each voting booth.  

On Wed night there will be an "official count" which to be fair is to make sure the unofficial count was counted and tallied up correctly.   In fact most of the "fraud" AMLO claimed took place in 2006 was a misunderstanding by the public that PREP was not meant to be authoritative or even that accurate but to have an ASAP unofficial count.  AMLO knows this put keeps on pointing out PREP mistakes/problem as "proof" of fraud just to continue his narrative.

Historically Mexico INE has a lot of problems of "math" where they have poor QC of data leading to clear and obvious mistakes they they do not even catch.  So a two phased approach might be best.

[Lord Halifax]

Wed night they will start the real official count

How long is that expected to take?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like PREP is done.  PREP seems much worse this year with a lot of outstanding votes and being very slow.  Wed night they will start the real official count

Wait, you mean Sunday and yesterday's count was just for show, and they have to start over and count all the votes again?? And that the process will be even slower?? what the christ

When can we hope to actually have semi-official results?

Yes.  What PREP does is to take in all the unofficial counts and then add them up and show them to the public.  There will be tons of mistakes along the way in terms of double counting and missed votes.  The goal of PREP is to prevent mass rigging of results since PREP will store all the images of unofficial results from each voting booth. 

On Wed night there will be an "official count" which to be fair is to make sure the unofficial count was counted and tallied up correctly.   In fact most of the "fraud" AMLO claimed took place in 2006 was a misunderstanding by the public that PREP was not meant to be authoritative or even that accurate but to have an ASAP unofficial count.  AMLO knows this put keeps on pointing out PREP mistakes/problem as "proof" of fraud just to continue his narrative.

Historically Mexico INE has a lot of problems of "math" where they have poor QC of data leading to clear and obvious mistakes they they do not even catch.  So a two phased approach might be best.

I see. That does make sense, yeah.

[jaichind]

Wed night they will start the real official count

How long is that expected to take?

Going by history that process will take 24 hours from starting Wed night.  Of course it does not matter that much.  The results for almost all major races are clear.

[jaichind]

Something I wrote last year related to so called "fraud" in the Mexico State governor election.  PREP had some data which were clearly wrong but in the official count that was corrected. 

There are all sorts of stories on the pro-MORENA social media about PRI rigging the vote count in Edomex.  While I am certain there are all sorts of PRI vote buying so far I do not see any evidence of mass rigging.   One example comes from the vote count a certain section.



Where MORENA got 112 votes but on PREP website has them getting zero votes.



Of course now the official result are out, I download the results by section and found that this section, LERMA-2387-C01, had, indeed 112 votes for MORENA.  Sure on election counting night there will be typos but when all the certified results are tabulated it seems the count does not seem to contain any mistakes on a mass basis.