2007 Gubernatorial Races

[Adlai Stevenson]

Is it more or less fair to say that both Governors Kathleen Blanco (D-LA) and Ernie Fletcher (R-KY) are likely to be defeated in 2007 as Governor Haley Barbour (R-MS) is re-elected?

In the recent SurveyUSA - 50 State Gov Approval, Blanco ranked 47th in approval 63% Disaproval to 33% Approval while Fletcher ranked at 48th - 63% Disapproval to 31% Approval. By contrast, Barbour's ratings in Mississippi are 55%-38% in his favour. Thus it seems likely that Democrats and Republicans switch the Louisiana and Kentucky Governor's Mansions in 2007 while the GOP holds Mississippi.

Then, who do you think will be the likely winners in these contests in the two states? I guess in Louisiana a Democrat could challenge Blanco in the primary - Congressman Jefferson, Melancon or Lieutenant Governor Landrieu? In LA for the Republicans, both Senator David Vitter and Bobby Jindal would be the favourites. Jindal lost to Landrieu in 2003 and now serves in the District Vitter represented before he was elected in 2004. But both Landrieu and Vitter have only served since January 2005, which appears to be a very short amount of time before you decide to run for something else.

In Kentucky, like in Jindal, Representative Chandler, who lost to him in 2003 could challenge Fletcher. I think the Democratic bench in Kentucky is quite shallow, apart from Daniel Mongiardo or Ken Lucas who else is there with the statewide recognition?

What do you think?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Landrieu is a Senator, not a governor.

But I pretty much agree with you. Blanco and Fletcher are likely to be defeated and Barbour is likely to be re-elected (although there's also a good chance he'll run for president).

Sorry. Duh! I thought that might have gone wrong somewhere.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I did mention Mitch Landrieu in my post.