Intrade opens 2016 presidential markets

[Mr. Morden]

Hooraaaaayyyyy!

https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch

Intrade now has a "winning party" market for 2016, as well as nomination markets for both parties.  All the major 2016ers are listed there.

There were doubts for a while about whether Intrade would open 2016 markets any time soon, seeing as how they've banned Americans from participating (because of the court cases in the USA).  But they've come through for us.  We'll see if the volume ends up being way down from last time, because of the lack of US participation.

At present, only a few shares have traded on winning party, though the Dems have the edge.

A single share of Clinton to win the Dem. nomination has sold at 22.0, and a single share of Rubio to win the GOP nomination has sold at 17.7, but it's way too early to read anything into that.  Have to wait for more volume before making further commentary.

2014 House and Senate markets have also gone up.

[Mr. Morden]

So these markets have been open for a few weeks now, but trading has been slow.  We do have "Dems to win the 2016 presidential election" trading at 55.0, with 33 shares traded so far.  The most heavily traded market is "Hillary Clinton to win the 2016 Democratic nomination", which has 67 shares traded, now at a price of 37.5.

Not much action on the GOP side yet.  One share of "Rubio to win the 2016 GOP nomination" has been traded at 17.7, and Rubio will probably still be ahead of the rest of the field when we get more volume, but it'll be a pretty wide open race on the GOP side.

[Mr. Morden]

Still low trading volume on Intrade.  Highest volume market in the 2016 category is Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination, which is now all the way up to 50.0.  Not enough volume on any of the other Dem. candidates to get much of a read of things, but based on bid/ask, and the prices in other markets like Betfair, it looks like the collective wisdom of the market would put Cuomo as a distant second for the Dem. nomination, with Biden third, and Gillibrand and O'Malley as fourth and fifth.

Rubio is the "frontrunner" on the GOP side, by which I mean that his price is higher than that of anyone else to win the GOP nomination.....but only at 14.9.  Christie and Ryan will likely end up as 2nd and 3rd place in share price (though not sure on the order).  Betfair, OTOH, is showing something like:

Rubio 20.2
Christie 14.4
Ryan 12.7
Jindal 10.2
J. Bush 9.5

Intrade still has Dems leading "winning party" with a price of 55.0.