What will Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush do in the next presidential election?

[Mister Mets]

An interesting aspect of the 2016 Republican field is that two potential contenders had a close relationship. When Jeb Bush was Governor of Florida, Marco Rubio was a member of the state legislature, and got along with him quite well. Both backed the other for Veep in 2012.

Chris Christie and Paul Ryan are likely to run, but the rest of the top-tier may be defined by a decision made by these two guys. And it's entirely possible that things change in the next two years, before anyone officially decides to run for President.

But how likely do you think the following situations are in 2016?
Jeb Bush decides to run for President, and Marco Rubio does not.
Marco Rubio decides to run for President, and Jeb Bush does not.
Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio both run for President.
Neither Jeb Bush nor Marco Rubio runs for President.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think if one runs, the other will not.  Its kinda like the Clinton/Cuomo rumored scenario, if one runs, the other will not.  I think Rubio is more likely to run than Bush.  I just don't see Jeb Bush really that interested in hopping back into the arena any time soon.  Plus, just 8 years after his brother left office, he may find it is still too soon.  I could possibly see Jeb in 2020, but 2016 I doubt.

[Mr. Morden]

Most likely scenario is Rubio runs and Bush doesn't.  Bush seems like he's keeping the door just open enough to stay in the conversation, so that he can run if he sees a clear victory path.  But I don't think he is going to see a clear victory path, so he won't run.

He doesn't really seem that interested in electoral politics anymore, and his wife doesn't want him to run.  He'll support his political protege, Marco Rubio, even though Bush isn't as conservative as he used to be, and would probably line up better with someone like Jon Huntsman on the issues.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I doubt Bush runs.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

From what I've read, most political circles make it seem that Rubio won't run if Bush does, but Rubio is the more likely one to take the plunge. Both camps believe Bush is the stronger candidate at this moment in time, surprisingly.

[bballrox4717]

From what I've read, most political circles make it seem that Rubio won't run if Bush does, but Rubio is the more likely one to take the plunge. Both camps believe Bush is the stronger candidate at this moment in time, surprisingly.

Because Rubio hasn't really done anything to warrant presidential speculation other than being incredibly telegenic. Once he actually passes through immigration reform he can show that he has some skillsets needed for the presidency.

[Likely Voter]

I agree that they may not want to run against eachother, but Bush seems to be enjoying the role of elder statesman, I dont see him running. If George never ran, he probably would but he knows that he has to deal with W's baggage.

[sg0508]

Rubio should worry more about being re-elected to the Senate first.  Then again, that's part of the reason Edwards ran in '04; it was likely he would be defeated in NC.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio should worry more about being re-elected to the Senate first.  Then again, that's part of the reason Edwards ran in '04; it was likely he would be defeated in NC.

I don't think Rubio cares about his Senate seat as such.  Like Obama, the point of running for Senate was to set himself up for a presidential run.

The only reason I'm not putting him in the top category of most likely to run here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=168823.msg3611987#msg3611987

is because there is a small chance that Bush decides to run and blocks Rubio.  But like I said above, I don't think that's all that likely.

[Liberalrocks]

Rubio runs,

Bush doesn't.

I think that 8 years after the disaster that was his brother. I believe he realize its too soon even if he did harbor presidential ambitions which I dont believe he does. I think George Sr and Barbara want him to run more then he does.

[Mister Mets]

My guesses.

There's a 10% chance both run. They do seem to be going in different directions politically.

There's a 45% chance only Rubio runs. He does have to worry about reelection, and he's still less likely to run against Jeb than not. But he has a lot of support from the base.

There's a 25% chance only Jeb runs. He has support and name recognition. And he's an ambitious man who won't get another shot at it. But he has to recognize that many in the party don't want another Bush, or another sixty-something white guy. Still, it may be an advantage that he'll have essentially been out of politics since 2006, so he can't be blamed for the excesses of the tea party.

There's a 20% chance neither runs. Rubio may decide to wait, and Jeb may come to the conclusion that there's a new generation of Republican leaders.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think the chances of both running are vanishingly small. It is unlikely that Jeb Bush will run. If he does, Rubio almost certainly will not. What's far more likely is that Rubio will run - there's basically no downside for him.

[TxChristianDude]

I think Jeb Bush is thinking about running, but I think he will decide not to.  Jeb Bush's son, George P. Bush wants to eventually run for Governor of Texas (maybe 2014, depends on what Rick Perry decide to do.)

It is believed here in TX that George P Bush wants to eventually run for president in the 2020's or 2030's.  Think about it... if Jeb runs and wins in 2016, That means that there will be a 3rd President Bush.  And if there is a 3rd Bush, there is NO WAY there will be a 4th President Bush. But it is possible that the Bush family has a plan to be in office every 8 years.  Here's a possible scenario:

George Bush Sr.  - 1989-1993
Bill Clinton - 1993-2001
George W. Bush - 2001-2009
Barak Obama - 2009-2017
Jeb Bush - 2017-2025
Democrat president - 2025 - 2033
George P. Bush - 2033- 2041
Democrat president - 2041-2049
Jeb Bush Jr. - 2049-2057

But how long could this scenario paly out until people figure it out.  Basicly the Bushes would be a royal family that takes a break every eight years.

Marco Rubio is hispanic. George P Bush is half hispanic.  So it's possible that the Bush family needs at least 1 hispanic GOP president/ 1 non-Bush GOP president in order to get another Bush in office down the road.   Here's a possible scenario in the list of presidents:

Bill Clinton - 1993-2001
George W. Bush - 2001-2009
Barak Obama - 2009-2017
Marco Rubio - 2017-2025
Democrat president - 2025-2032

George P Bush wins the 2032 GOP Prez Nomination.  He runs a run a campaign on the policies of former President Marco Rubio.... "Look, I'm not trying to return to policies of my Uncle George W., I will instead be just like the 1st hispanic president we had 8 years ago.." -George P Bush