NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[KaiserDave]

I am probably going to meet Yang today. Any questions?

Furthermore, if you want to ask questions to all non Yang candidates in a Zoom forum

Here is a good one, it's tomorrow

https://www.teenstakecharge.com/mayor

[KaiserDave]

I met Yang. Cool guy. He answered my question well.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-nyc-mayoral-race-maya-wiley-valazquez-endorsement-20210305-ksxqszvi25bzxibjgnektgrteq-story.html

Very big endorsement for Wiley, Velázquez is key to the Puerto Rican vote. Perhaps Wiley can break out ahead of Donovan and McGuire, especially with this and the 1199 endorsement

[KaiserDave]

Gonna be the first one to say the obligatory Memerson

I ain't buying Wiley polling over Stringer until we get more numbers here.

But this doesn't change what we already knew. It's Yang's race to lose.

[KaiserDave]

Garciamentum?

No longer as into her, but interesting nevertheless

[KaiserDave]

And nobody noticed!

Also, Nadler is backing Lander for comptroller. Which means Lander now has the all powerful Nadler mailing list at his disposal!

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/tweetbenmax/status/1369785385228906501?s=10

I have two theories

1. Wiley is flopping on her pledge to rank Morales 2nd and is engaging in an RCV pact with Yang
2. Joint denunciation of Anti Asian hate crimes?

[KaiserDave]

I was worried Brad Lander would back out the Comptroller race after Corey Johnson (eyeroll) jumped in, but he's fighting harder than ever. Big new endorsement. His reward presumably for endorsing her early in 2019.


https://gothamist.com/news/senator-elizabeth-warren-weighs-nyc-comptroller-race-endorsing-city-councilmember-brad-lander

[KaiserDave]

Morales second and third choice votes are going to be very good for Stringer.

[KaiserDave]

Met Stringer and petitioned for Stringer+Lander today.

Feeling good about Scott. I spoke to his people, they loved my characterization of the Emerson poll as "typical trash from Memerson" and they aren't taking it seriously.

[KaiserDave]

I do love that RCV has lead to more kinda “coalition campaigning”

It has lowered the temperature of the race for sure. Less attacking, more coalition building.

[KaiserDave]

Oxygen thief billionaire land developers plan to spend tens of millions on trying to get a moderate Dem elected. I'm not sure why they're bothering, both Yang and Adam seem squarely I'm their corner. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/09/nyregion/stephen-ross-mayor-money.html

Thanks for sharing. Very bad stuff.

As for where I'm at, I moving squarely into Stringer's corner and hoping to get a volunteering position.

He's the only candidate I believe that combines progressive policies with decades of government experience. I like his endorsements (Bowman, Nadler, RWDSU) and I like the guy personally!

My view on Garcia has declined given her lack of liberalism, I like her experience but she's too moderate for my taste. I've been moving away from Yang for some time. I will very likely not be ranking him at all.

In the Comptroller race I am entirely behind Lander, without the shadow of a doubt. Corey Johnson should never have ran.

[KaiserDave]

Oxygen thief billionaire land developers plan to spend tens of millions on trying to get a moderate Dem elected. I'm not sure why they're bothering, both Yang and Adam seem squarely I'm their corner. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/09/nyregion/stephen-ross-mayor-money.html

Thanks for sharing. Very bad stuff.

As for where I'm at, I moving squarely into Stringer's corner and hoping to get a volunteering position.

He's the only candidate I believe that combines progressive policies with decades of government experience. I like his endorsements (Bowman, Nadler, RWDSU) and I like the guy personally!

My view on Garcia has declined given her lack of liberalism, I like her experience but she's too moderate for my taste. I've been moving away from Yang for some time. I will very likely not be ranking him at all.

In the Comptroller race I am entirely behind Lander, without the shadow of a doubt. Corey Johnson should never have ran.

Out of curiosity why don’t you like Johnson?

It's mostly because Lander is amazing.

[KaiserDave]

Oxygen thief billionaire land developers plan to spend tens of millions on trying to get a moderate Dem elected. I'm not sure why they're bothering, both Yang and Adam seem squarely I'm their corner. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/09/nyregion/stephen-ross-mayor-money.html

Thanks for sharing. Very bad stuff.

As for where I'm at, I moving squarely into Stringer's corner and hoping to get a volunteering position.

He's the only candidate I believe that combines progressive policies with decades of government experience. I like his endorsements (Bowman, Nadler, RWDSU) and I like the guy personally!

My view on Garcia has declined given her lack of liberalism, I like her experience but she's too moderate for my taste. I've been moving away from Yang for some time. I will very likely not be ranking him at all.

In the Comptroller race I am entirely behind Lander, without the shadow of a doubt. Corey Johnson should never have ran.

Since Menchaca's only emailing about donations, I am thinking of hopping on the Stringer train as well. I've been getting emails about signing up for a petition gathering shift. I think I'll do it.

Maybe I'll see ya out there!

Scott Stringer for Mayor: Ready on Day One!

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1370917121878859779?s=21

Yang joining forces with the most establishment / (relatively) right wing major Manhattan DA candidate. Think he’s clearly positioning himself on the right of the NYC Dems at this point, with some idiosyncrasies.

Agreed, beyond a few progressive policies like the People's Bank, I don't see what's there.

[KaiserDave]

I reject the characterization of Yang as a secret libertarian, I think that’s unfair and I’m not sure the description y’all have for his UBI plan is entirely accurate. But I think Babeuf’s point about Torres and the consultants holds some weight. It’s funny because like Yang, Torres supported Bernie in 2016, and was even a delegate!

[KaiserDave]

What an unfortunate name he has

Edit: But it looks like Diane has some momentum, I still am highly reluctant to rank her though

[KaiserDave]

Either a full-on RCV cross-endorsement or another organizational co-endorsement (as the Freelancers Union did) is incoming (or, alternatively, maybe Garcia hasn't liked her recent polling numbers & fundraising reports so she's dropping out & endorsing Yang?)

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1371171709835997190

Very interesting stuff. Thanks!

[KaiserDave]

I keep noticing all these candidates are in my neighborhood. Garcia was here recently and I of course met Stringer, who pulled up right in front of where I live.


Now, on Diane. I like her and she's got something to her. She's definitely not going away. But...I can't vote for someone to run the biggest city in the country without any government experience. The next Mayor will need experience shepherding legislation and implementing change in the vast and indecipherable bureaucracy. She ain't it. She's definitely more experienced than Yang, but I ain't voting for Yang.

[KaiserDave]

It's almost like every candidate in this race has one fatal flaw or disqualifying answer

Except Scott

[KaiserDave]

Garcia and Morales got matching funds, so they are definitely staying in. Everyone who doesn't have it at this point is pretty much dead in the water.

[KaiserDave]

Brucejoel's point about big business/banks pushing McGuire is correct, and seeing him get 6% in the first round will be funny indeed. McGuire was hopeless so long as Adams was running, and Adams was always going to run.

As for Menchaca, he is hopeless and will go nowhere. He won't make it to primary day and if he did he'd be lucky to get 1%. I find him woefully unprepared for the Mayoralty.

[KaiserDave]

Okay here comes the KaiserDave NYC Mayor 2021 update.


Frontrunners
Scott Stringer, Eric Adams, Andrew Yang
Competitors
Maya Wiley
Periphery of Competition
Diane Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, Ray McGuire
Stragglers
Carlos Menchaca, Art Chang



So, notes.

1. I don't buy Wiley being ahead of Stringer, not now, and definitely not in the long term. One poll from Memerson doesn't convince me of anything. And in the long term, Stringer's far superior fundraising, organization, and infrastructure will have no trouble kicking Wiley down the road. I will admit however that it's clear that Wiley is in a class of her own above McGuire, and so I've noted that.

2. It's pretty clear who has a chance at this point in the race and who doesn't, the bottom feeders category isn't necessary anymore. Most of them will be out of the race in a month.

3. I think it's clear where the race stands at this point. Yang leads Adams who leads Stringer who leads Wiley, and below Wiley is Morales, Donovan, McGuire, and Garcia battling it out. Everyone else at this point is frankly, meaningless.

4. Who do I think is most likely to exit the pack of those four? I gotta say Morales. She has the second largest amount of volunteers, just qualified for matching funds, and could very much take the left lane, and while she remains to have <1% chance at actually winning this, I suspect she could put up a strong showing.

Here's my prediction of the first round, to be updated, and based on my gut feeling and the data we have.

Andrew Yang: 26%
Eric Adams: 19%
Scott Stringer: 18%
Maya Wiley: 10%
Diane Morales: 8%
Shaun Donovan: 7%
Ray McGuire: 6%
Kathryn Garcia: 4%
Other: 1-2%

I have no idea what future rounds would look like. It's totally unpredictable in my view!

[KaiserDave]

I find Andrew is adopting the very same messaging of "fixing the broken city." Just because the guy smiles a lot and waves his hands doesn't change that.

[KaiserDave]

Starting petitioning for Stringer today.  Good stuff!

Got a free Stringer mask and button.