2014 US Gubernatorial Election Results

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Baker is going to declare victory, Coakley is going home without talking to her supporters.

Classic Coakley. Ugh. I still feel unclean about voting for her, but I would have felt really unclean about voting for Baker.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Minnesota ended up being closer than Wisconsin

Sickening.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Alaska governor update.

GOVERNOR/LT GOVERNOR      
Total
Number of Precincts      441   
Precincts Reporting      325   73.7%
Times Counted      195234/509011   38.4%
Total Votes      192113   
Clift/Lee   LIB   5593   2.91%
Myers/Rensel   CON   4330   2.25%
Parnell/Sullivan   REP   89978   46.84%
Walker/Mallott   NA   91668   47.72%
Write-in Votes      544   0.28%

Per the congressional thread, this was mainly Mat-Su, which is of course heavily Republican.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So, how confident do we feel about Bill Walker right now?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Walker leads by 3,165 votes right now. If there are 25,000 absentee votes outstanding, they need to break about 14,250 to Parnell vs. 10,750 to Walker. In other words, Parnell needs to win 57% of their combined vote.

Of course, some of those votes will be for third party candidates. If 5% go to third parties, that leaves 23,750 votes between the two. Parnell's necessary two candidate share goes up slightly to 57.4% of their combined vote.

If the full 38,000 absentees votes requested are returned (unlikely), Parnell needs 54.6% of their combined vote to win. Discounting third party votes, it goes up to 54.8%.

AFAIK, absentee/early votes have generally favored Democrats in the past.

So Walker should be good. Thanks.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

As a more of a moderate Republican, I'm really happy about some of these results. I'm excited about the opportunity Republicans elected in blue states have to create a working relationship with the other side to better the state, and I think they'll do that. The three main folks I am thinking about are Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, and Bruce Rauner.

I don't know about Baker or Hogan, but everything I've seen from Rauner suggests he'll squander any such opportunity.

Baker should be decent. Tolerable, at least.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

According to CNN's "Election Center" only 80% of the total vote has been tallied in Vermont. Does anyone know if that's accurate? Is it guaranteed that Shumlin will end up having more votes than Milne?

That's not accurate. The New York Times and Google both have Vermont at 100% in. The Vermont Secretary of State's website is at 96.36%. Shumlin is ahead by about a percentage point.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I think it's FPTP but I'm not sure. Shumlin is definitely going to win; even if the Republicans held the majority, tradition in Vermont is for the legislature to elect whoever won the plurality (although there are exceptions: 'The most recent example of the General Assembly’s rejection of the plurality candidate occurred in 1976 when Republican T. Gary Buckley, who had come in second in popular vote was elected by a three-vote margin in the General Assembly over the plurality winner, John Alden. In this case, the candidate who had forced the race into the General Assembly was Liberty Union candidate John Franco (to the left of both the Democrat and Republican), indicating a majority of the electorate would almost certainly have selected Alden instead of Buckley in a one-on-one or instant runoff election.'). A Democratic legislature elected Jim Douglas in 2002.