Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, November 21st:

Bachelet Approval: 19%/72%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 27%, Guiller 16%, Lagos 5%, Ossandon 3%, Ominami 2%, Farkas 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 41%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 43%, Guiller 15%, Lagos 8%, Ossandon 3%, Other/None 31%

Piñera Bancard Scandal:

Did you know of the scandal: Yes 57%, No 36%, No Answer 7%

Do you believe Piñera didn't know about the investment on a Peruvian fishing company: Yes 59%, No 39%, No Answer 2%

Do you believe Piñera's government did everything it could to defend Chilean interests during the maritime dispute: Yes 48%, No 43%, No Answer 9%

Do you think this is part of a "dirty campaign" against Piñera: Yes 58%, No 33%, No Answer 9%

Would you say Piñera's explanations have been enough: Yes 20%, No 66%, No Answer 14%

Was Piñera's govermnent good for Chile: Good 50%, Bad 29%, Neither 19%, No Answer 2%

[Lumine]

November 22nd-November 2th:

Chile Vamos Primary:

• Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (IND) makes the news with a series of campaign pledges regarding "making prisoners work". Reception seems to have been mostly positive, although Ossandon continues to take flak from the liberal center-right due to his conservative stances.

Nueva Mayoria Primary:

• Former Interior Minister and "old guard" figure Jose Miguel Insulza starts his presidential campaign with a strong effort, capitalizing on the stagnation of the Lagos campaign and his inability to take a strong position after two-three months of campaign. Insulza and Atria managed to secure internal primaries for the PS to choose it's candidate, probably to be held in April. Lagos is facing a complicated scenario in both PS and PPD, thought to be his electoral  base, in no small part for his ongoing and scathing criticism of Bachelet's first term.
• The radicals (PRSD) have set their national convention for January 2017, and openly declared that they will proclaim Senator Guiller as their presidential candidate for the Nueva Mayoria Primaries. With the primaries set to be held on July 2017, Guiller has cemented himself on the strongest position, ahead of Lagos-Insulza and the lesser known Atria and Tarud.

Others:

• The newly formed far-left Partido Pais held its convention in Concepcion this week, asking Senator Alejandro Navarro (strong supporter of Evo Morales and the Venezuelan government) to take up a presidential candidate to the potential primaries of the Frente Amplio. Similarly, sociologist Carlos Ruiz (linked to several student movements) has also been raised as another possible candidate.
• Amidst concerns of possible support for Piñera Amplitud (splinter party from RN) held its convention as well, deciding to field a candidate of their own for a primary inside the Sentido Futuro centrist coalition. However, there doesn't seem to be any obvious or natural candidates not even for the party, but for the entire coalition now that Velasco and Lily Perez seek to run for Senate.

[Lumine]

Haven't updated this in a while, and the field has taken a bit more form:

November 27th-January 12th:

Chile Vamos Primary:

• Ossandon and Kast continue to tour the country, although current polling shows them far behind Piñera (usually 20-25% for Piñera, 1 to 2% for the others). PRI has endorsed Piñera although he is not an official candidate yet, which leaves the two largest parties in the coalition (RN and UDI, the historical right) to make their decision. UDI appears split on whether to launch their own candidate (lacking names), whereas RN is to proclaim its candidate in two more weeks, speculation set on Espina and Chahuan dropping their helpless bids and the party endorsing Piñera or Ossandon. So Piñera continues to run away with this one, although some dream of a primary upset in which Ossandon defeats him.

Nueva Mayoria Primary:

• Surprise, suprise, Independent Senator Alejandro Guillier is the man of the hour. Despite not showing up on the political radar six months ago he is now the frontrunner for the Nueva Mayoria primary, and is seen by many as the one man who can beat Piñera and spare Nueva Mayoria an electoral collapse. On the other hand, Guillier is known for a cautious style and for saying little of substance, which means his political capital and skills are still to be tested.
• Guillier's supporters spread like wildfire across the Nueva Mayoria parties, with the Partido Radical proclaiming him as their nominee. He also has many adepts in the Partido Comunista, Partido Socialista, Democracia Cristiana and PPD, although it's not likely he'll be formally nominated by those.
• Former President Lagos struggles to rise in the polls as his bid looks in serious trouble, although he is expected to be nominated by PPD this week in a move that will end up the quixotic campaign of Jorge Tarud. He is deploying his troops to try and get the key PS nomination, but it appears he'll be locked in a three-way struggle with Insulza and Atria.
• The Christian Democrats face a crossroads regarding the future, with many believing the proposal for the party to field a first-round candidate and go alone on a parliamentarian list to be electoral suicide. There is a belief that without a candidate they'll lose clout and grown even weaker, but there's few competitive choices. There remains a possibility for recent reelected DC Chairman Senator Carolina Goic to be proclaimed at the end of the month, though, as she appears to be the strongest card they have.

Others:

• Once the young politician of the future, Marco Enriquez-Ominami sinks like a rock. The Nueva Mayoria is refusing all contacts with him, and the Frente Amplio has refused to admit PRO in their coalition and Ominami on their primaries on account of his electoral financing scandal, this amidst mass resignations in the PRO. At this stage, Ominami's third presidential bid (now polling at a mere 1%) is expected to implode soon.
• Sentido Futuro also faces a crisis after poor results in the municipal election, the refusal of two of their current deputies to run for reelection, and more importantly, the decision by their strongest candidates (Andres Velasco and Lily Perez) to run for Senate and not for President. With no one but the unknown Sebastian Sichel as a possible candidate, the coalition is also in serious trouble.
• While a slow process, the long awaited Frente Amplio of the left has taken form by including several parties and movements, although several remain away from the coalition. It goes from the far, far left to the liberal progressive Partido Liberal, and it will hold primaries in order to select their own candidate to surpass Nueva Mayoria (basically, they're aiming to be a Podemos with Nueva Mayoria as the PSOE). The field is in formation, but Senator Alejandro Navarro will run, and there's many claiming for activist (and for me, professional snake oil salesman) Luis Mesina to run as well.
• With several independents struggling for traction an unexpected name has joined the race in the mold of populists such as Franco Parisi. This candidate is TV personality Nicolas Larrain, running on an odd "centrist" and populist platform (support for protectionism included) with the citizen-centrist-crossover party "Todos".

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Deputy Jorge Tarud (PPD) - Announced
Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced
Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced
Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced
Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced

Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Speculative

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced
Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Announced
Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March
Deputy Jaime Bellolio (UDI) - Speculative
Former Mayor Francisco de la Maza (UDI) - Speculative

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced

Todos:

TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud)

Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, Pais, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others)

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced
Activist Luis Mesina (IND) - Speculative
Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative
Union Leader Cristian Cuevas (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, gathering signatures
Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Announced, gathering signatures
Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced
Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Speculative

[Lumine]

The center-left social democrat PPD (Partido por la Democracia) chose Ricardo Lagos as its nominee at their convention yesterday, with an internal vote by the party councilors giving Lagos 158 votes (92%) against quixotic candidate Jorge Tarud's 13 and 15 spoilt votes. Lagos's campaign is giving a substantial boost, and lives to fight another day by becoming a serious contender inside the Partido Socialista (which is strongly considering allowing Guillier and Lagos to participate in their candidate selection process alongside Atria and Insulza). Renovacion Nacional (RN) also held its national convention with scathing criticism of Nueva Mayoria and Alejandro Guillier, choosing to suspend choosing a nominee until March (where Piñera is set to formalize his intentions).

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, January 9th:

Bachelet Approval: 21%/66%

Support for Bachelet's Reforms:

Tax Reform: 24%/56%
Educational Reform: 31%/60%
Labour Reform: 25%/56%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 18%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 3%, Ominami 2%, Parisi 2%, Farkas 1%, Insulza 1%, Others 4%, Undecided 44%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 37%, Guiller 24%, Lagos 5%, Ossandon 2%, Other/None 32%

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, January 16th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/66%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 2%, Ominami 1%, Parisi 1%, Farkas 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 41%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 40%, Guiller 28%, Lagos 4%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 27%

Piñera/Guillier round:

Men: 24/23
Women: 22/23

Young (18-34): 27/18
Adult (35-54): 23/23
Old (55-): 20/32

Upper Class: 32/26
Middle Class: 22/26
Lower Class: 19/21

Santiago: 22/26
Regions: 24/22

Catholic: 23/26
Evangelic/Protestant: 30/20
Atheist/Agnostic: 20/21

In General:

• A small crisis erupts in the new Frente Amplio as Gabriel Boric and others issue a veto on Senator Alejandro Navarro (a former Bachelet and Nueva Mayoria supporter) to run on the Frente Amplio primaries, leading Navarro's Partido Pais to suspend its participation on the new coalition. Around the same time, activist Luis Mesina confirms he will not run for President, eliminating two of the likely nominees for the new leftist coalition.
• Tensions rise in Chile Vamos as Evopoli and Felipe Kast promote their new government program of 130 measures, which has come under flak by RN, UDI and PRI for being overtly liberal on several issues (including gay marriage). The negotiations for the parliamentary elections also raise potential conflicts, as PRI and Evopoli demand an equal share of candidates and RN and UDI believe they deserve more candidates due to their larger results.
• Feeling himself on a strong position after gaining the PPD nomination, Former President Lagos announces that he will not take part of a primary in the Partido Socialista (PS). In response, the PS appears now determined to hold primaries in April to choose a nominee for the Nueva Mayoria primaries in July, a battle between Fernando Atria and Jose Miguel Insulza which sees many in the PS dreaming of Guillier after sensing his electoral appeal.
• And the number of independent candidates rises, as 2013 candidate Franco Parisi is offered to run for President by the centrist-regionalist party Democracia Regional Patagonica, signaling a comeback for the candidate after scoring more than 10% in the last election and, at one point, being feared by the Chilean right as a candidate who could have ended up in the second round.

[Lumine]

Youth that didn't know Pinochet's regime is more Piñeira supporting than Guillier. Are they waiting for a more left-wing candidate or they're more conservative than their parents?

To be fair, Pinochet is not really that much of a factor anymore (outside of the hard-left and the hard-right, which can't quite stop bringing Allende and Pinochet to every debate), and Piñera did vote No in 1988 and has been attacked from his right-flank for being too critical of Pinochet.

It's more or less easy to explain by Guillier appears so strong with old voters since the pension system rose as one of the major issues in 2016, many attacking the current system as being unfair. In that sense, there's a probable belief among many of those voters that Guillier would indeed get rid of it and replace it (although that's a simplistic explanation).

How to read Piñera's lead with the youth is harder, it was a shock to me. If I had to pick an explanation it would probably be the economy, usually the flagship of Piñera's legacy and one of the areas in which he looks the more appealing compared to Nueva Mayoria. It could also be dissatisfaction with the government affecting Guillier (and of course, Lagos) by proxy.

But what I would hesitate to do is read it as waiting for a more-left wing candidate (since the polls are not including the Frente Amplio given that they don't have a clear candidate) or as being more or less conservative leaning, it should be noted the vast majority of the voters now refuse to identify with the left, center and right.

[Lumine]

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So far, it seems to be the case, although there's disagreement of how to read that exactly. Guillier's main characteristic is that he's been turned into some sort of an electoral machine that appeals to the voters without actually having taken strong stances on the issues. There's a narrative behind him (that is, that he can take the Bachelet reforms and make them work and that he is an outsider against the establishment) which I suppose appeals to many in the middle-class, but I wonder how will his support change once he's forced to take more firm stances, and once the field is consolidated.

On the other hand, beyond saying Guillier is center-left and probably a social democrat it's also hard to pin him in terms of ideology and thinking, and the Frente Amplio does find the idea of Guillier being a champion of the left laughable (even they attack him for a lack of substance). It might be my own bias, but I think Guillier is at a moment in which he represents views or stances that might end up being contradictory.

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It's hard to say, as it depends on the areas of the country. Generally speaking the upper class does gravitate towards the right-wing and the lower class towards the left, but there's still a strong left vote in some higher income areas and the right does hold significant strength in some of the poorer areas of the country (something particularly exploited by UDI, which benefited from holding most of the Mayors under Pinochet and did its best to locally appeal to those voters). The middle-class tends to be the battleground which crowns the winner, but it is fragmented on who to support.

There was a time in the 1940's and 1950's in which the Partido Radical was almost by definition the party of the middle class, and something similar took place under the reign of the Democracia Cristiana in the 1960's, but with political parties so fragmented, it would be hard to describe the middle class as strongly for one side. It should be noted though that polls tend to reveal more people identifying with the center-left and the left than the center-right or the right, and the right-wing only tends to win when they are able to mobilize independents behind them.

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, January 23rd:

Bachelet Approval: 24%/65%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 4%, Ossandon 2%, Farkas 2%, Parisi 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 40%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 40%, Guiller 25%, Lagos 5%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 29%

Chile Vamos Primary:
(among center-right, right voters)

Piñera 68%, Ossandon 10%, F. Kast 9%, Espina 3%, Chahuan 2%, Undecided 8%

Nueva Mayoria Primary:
(among center-left, left voters)

Guillier 61%, Lagos 16%, Insulza 7%, Goic 4%, Atria 3%, Undecided 9%

Candidate Attributes:

Who has more authority and leadership? - Piñera 41%, Guillier 19%, Lagos 16%, Ossandon 5%, Undecided 19%
Who is better prepared to be President? - Piñera 40%, Guillier 23%, Lagos 13%, Ossandon 6%, Undecided 18%
Who is more capable of solving the country's problems? - Piñera 38%, Guillier 24%, Lagos 10%, Ossandon 7%, Undecided 21%
Who is more trustworthy? - Piñera 33%, Guillier 34%, Lagos 6%, Ossandon 8%, Undecided 19%
Who delivers more on his promises? - Piñera 32%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 6%, Ossandon 8%, Undecided 32%
Who knows better the needs of the public? - Piñera 25%, Guillier 31%, Lagos 8%, Ossandon 10%, Undecided 26%
Who is closer to the public? -  Piñera 25%, Guillier 40%, Lagos 6%, Ossandon 12%, Undecided 17%

In General:

• A major crisis takes place nationwide as dozens of forest fires suddenly erupt across several regions, in a scale never seen before. Hundreds have lost their homes as several forests burn and many farming areas disappear in flames, the smoke covering most of the central cities. There's been widespread criticism of what is percieved to be a lack of competence from Bachelet's government in dealing with the crisis, and the Government defends itself by arguing there was no way to predict the scale of the disaster.
• The Partido Radical holds a nationwide plebiscite to ratify Senator Guillier's as the party's nominee, ratifying his candidacy with 99,9% of the vote and some 11,000 votes cast.
• Chile Vamos is still locked in a bitter struggle over the parliamentary candidates, with UDI Chairman Jacqueline van Rysselberghe insisting Evopoli and PRI can't have the same number of candidates each than UDI, and RN trying to mediate as talk grows of two separate parliamentary lists (which would hurt Evopoli and PRI badly).
• The Frente Amplio is now a reality as more than a dozen political parties and movements confirm its participation. With potential candidates like Senator Alejandro Navarro, journalist Beatriz Sanchez and activist Luis Mesina discarded, the Frente Amplio will begin to search for primary candidates soon.

[Lumine]

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced
Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced
Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced
Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced

Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Speculative

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March
Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Will decide in March
Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN) - Will decide in March

Deputy Jaime Bellolio (UDI) - Speculative
Former Mayor Francisco de la Maza (UDI) - Speculative

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced

Todos:

TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures

Pais:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud + Red Liberal)

Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others)

Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative
Union Leader Cristian Cuevas (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, gathering signatures
Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Announced, gathering signatures
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures with DRP support

Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced

Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative

[Lumine]

Probably I'm gonna vote for the Frente Amplio candidate (Claudia Sanhueza maybe?) in the first round, and if the runn-off is between Piñera and Guillier, blank maybe. Although if Guillier doesn't succumb to a very populist message (anti-immigrant rhetoric is my biggest fear) I would vote for him (I just can't accept Piñera returning to power).

Very good job Lumine.

Thanks, seb_pard! I would appreciate your insight regarding the left and particularly the Frente Amplio, my knowledge is rather limited there (I never considered Sanhueza for example, although she does seem a long shot). My condolences for the ongoing situation of the left, I am often very frustrated at the divisions on the right and the constant antics and stupidity often displayed by the UDI, but the left has like 20 different parties now and may end up divided in three or four coalitions at this rate.

I fully expect a competitive election between Piñera and Guillier (I cannot believe how Guillier rises so fast without opening his mouth), seeing as the Frente Amplio will probably go to the polls divided and Sentido Futuro appears to be dead in the water.

[Lumine]

Can Kast join Sentido Futuro. It makes more sense for him, if he doesn't get things from Chile Vamos.

It's possible, but unlikely. There is an important wing in Evopoli which gives more priority to being a liberal party than being part of the center-right that they indeed advocate moving to Sentido Futuro, but Kast is a bit more conservative than that wing, so unless he's pushed too far I don't see him leaving Chile Vamos.

Plus, Sentido Futuro had a very negative result in the municipals and it is facing internal issues of its own, so joining that coalition right now doesn't look like a good move in the short and long term.  I'd wager Kast probably believes (and rightly so) that he can get a lot more trying to move Chile Vamos to the center from the inside than the other alternative.

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, January 30th:

Bachelet Approval: 18%/75%

Forest Fires:

Did the Government take the right decisions to face the emergency?: 22%/75%
What was the cause of the forest fires?: Accidental 10%/ Intentional 75%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 24%, Guillier 18%, Ossandon 3%, Lagos 2%, Parisi 2%, Others 6%, Undecided 45%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 38%, Guiller 24%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 34%

[Lumine]

Bachelet 2006-2010
Pinera 2010-2014
Bachelet 2014-2018
Pinera 2018-2022
Bachelet
Pinera
Bachelet
Pinera
etc

Boy, that would be awful. Still, Bachelet did pledge never to run again for office, and I cannot see a way for her to do so successfully (although then again, I never expected Piñera to really stage a comeback). It could have been worse, though, Piñera has been running for President since 1993 (where he dropped out in a major scandal along with rival and future candidate Evelyn Matthei), 1999 (where he was pushed out by the rising Joaquin Lavin) and 2005 (where he went to the first round against Lavin, defeated him and then lost to Bachelet). Bachelet, by comparison, only rose to prominence in the Lagos government, she was unknown before.

Also, Bachelet breaks a new record by becoming the President with the highest disapproval ratings in Chile since polling began (75% disapprove). Her 18% approval rating is also tied for the lowest approval, with her own numbers a few months ago. The awful tragedy of the forest fires is really taking its toll on her.

[Lumine]

Absolutely great updates, Lumine, thank you so much.

I know Israel is very unpopular in many South American countries and that Chile has quite a sizeable Palestinian community, but are there any candidates/parties in Chile that are pro-Israel?

Thank you very much, David!

I believe the descendents of Palestinian origin are estimated as being anywhere from 300,000 to 500,000 (the largest number anywhere outside the Arab World and Israel), but when it comes to politicians of Jewish or Palestinian descent you can find them across all parties (from Rodrigo Hinzpeter, Piñera's Interior Minister and close ally to relevant people in the left like Tomás Hirsch or many members of Bachelet's cabinets).

Broadly speaking (and usually regardless of left or right), at the government level you usually find efforts to balance the relationship with both countries on a positive level (we recognize Palestine, for example, yet at the same time the Chilean military holds strong ties to Israel, which acts as one of its main military hardware suppliers). The relationship is evidently close to Palestine, though, whenever events take place in Gaza there's usually calls for a strong condemnation of Israel.

But as seb_pard pointed out parties don't tend to be too vocal about it, the last time it was more broadly debated was in 2011 and in 2014, and while in that case it was the center-left that was more pro-Palestine, it wasn't that the right was pro-Israel. Indeed, it was under Piñera that we recognized Palestine.

[Lumine]

There's a bit of an unforseen issue that could drastically change the outlook of the election, which I think it's better to explain now. As a result of the many reforms to the electoral laws when confidence in the political parties plummeted into nothingness, all parties were mandated to go through a process of re-inscription of its party members equivalent to the 0,25% of voters in the last parliamentary election, meaning every party needed to gather 17,500 signatures in 12 months with the process due to end in April.

It seemed like an easy target back then, but there's such a level of disatafiction and distrust in politics that all parties are struggling to get the signatures, and it's not an issue of the small parties, it's affecting the larger ones directly. The problem is that if a party fails to gather the signatures it will cease to be a legal party, and so it won't be able to nominate a Presidental candidate and oficially compete in the Parliamentary Election (unless their candidates go in the list of another party).

This is going to such grave levels than virtually all parties, and particularly the splinter parties of the Frente Amplio appear in grave danger of ceasing to oficially exist or having to fuse with other parties to survive. To provide an example, if the Partido Radical or PPD fail to get the signatures (and it's possible it could happen), Guillier or Lagos would be out of the primary, unless they were able to gather signatures to run as independents or find another party (Guillier has a small back-up in the Izquierda Ciudadana party, but it's impossible such a small group would also get the signatures.

All in all, it's quite a mess.

In other news, the national convention of the Democracia Cristiana was suspended by Chairman Carolina Goic due to the forest fires. It is believed Goic is slowly cementing her leadership of the party, and many believe that once she holds the convention the party will indeed proclaim her the DC candidate for either the Nueva Mayoria primaries, or, less likely, the first round.

[Lumine]

Bachelet 2006-2010
Pinera 2010-2014
Bachelet 2014-2018
Pinera 2018-2022
Bachelet
Pinera
Bachelet
Pinera
etc

Makes Alan Garcia look weak.

The ride never ends... To be fair, it's not the first time it happens. A large part of the XX Century in Chile was defined by the rivalry between Arturo Alessandri (1920-1924, 1925, 1932-1938) and General Carlos Ibañez del Campo (1927-1931, 1952-1928), both serving two terms and being fierce rivals while, ironically, never running against each other (Alessandri ran unsuccessfuly in 1931, Ibañez faced the same in 1942).

The Chileans here may find this to be interesting.

I can't see the full story, but in principle it wouldn't surprise me. One of the most fascinating aspects of Pinochet and the military regime is the level of cooperation on different matters they reached with different countries (with often contradicting stances). As far as I know we even sold weapons to Saddam Hussein during the 80's, a bit of an intrigue that even got a foreign journalist killed in Santiago when he seemingly got too close to the issue.

[Lumine]

The Presidential campaigns entered a period of rest through most of January and February (particularly because of those dreadful forest fires), but some events have been taking place as March looks like the decisive month for several candidates:

• Unsurprisingly, Piñera continues to set the stage for his announcement in March, in what ought to be the decisive month for his candidacy. In the span of three weeks he'll have to announce, fight to become the nominee of RN and UDI in their respective conventions, and dodge the fall out of an investigation on a company on which he has several links to, involved in some shady dealings during a maritime dispute with Peru.
• The other Chile Vamos candidates are forced to wait until Piñera confirms his plans, to the detriment of minor candidates Chahuan and Espina and particularly the maverick Senator Ossandon, who hasn't found success either refraining from attacking Piñera or going after him. Felipe Kast on the other hand, presented his government program and is touring the country with a "renewal" platform (including cutting taxes and the size of government, lowering the voting age to 16 and legalizing gay marriage).
• Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind, formerly UDI) continues his quest to be an alternate hard right candidate for the first round. Kast has gathered about 17,000 signatures of the 37,000 he needs, a few months still left to go. It will be tight, but it's not impossible he gets to the first round.
• DC Chairman Carolina Goic makes the news today by entering the presidential race as the sole challenger to be the Democracia Cristiana candidate, presumably to fight in the Nueva Mayoria Primaries. The move is yet another blow to former President Lagos, now reviled by the progressives in the Nueva Mayoria and abandoned by the center.
• Polls haven't changed much (and remain inaccurate until they measure other candidates such as the Frente Amplio potential nominee), but they show Guillier in the decline against Piñera, the former President retaining a healthy lead. It remains to be seen how March will change the scenario.
• Parties continue to panic over the legalization process, as only a handful are even close to the number of required signatures. There's widespread panic in the PPD particularly, as historic figures of the party jump ship while the signature target looks far ahead.

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, February 27th:

Bachelet Approval: 18%/73%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 25%, Guillier 17%, Ossandon 3%, Lagos 3%, Parisi 2%, Goic 1%, Kast 1%, Insulza 1%, Farkas 1%, Ominami 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 39%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 41%, Guiller 22%, Lagos 2%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 34%

Chile Vamos Primary:
(among center-right, right voters)

Piñera 68%, Ossandon 9%, F. Kast 7%, Espina 3%, Chahuan 2%, Undecided 11%

Nueva Mayoria Primary:
(among center-left, left voters)

Guillier 66%, Lagos 7%, Insulza 7%, Goic 3%, Atria 1%, Undecided 16%

[Lumine]

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced
Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced
Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced
Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced
Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March
Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Will decide in March

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced

Todos:

TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures

Pais:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud + Red Liberal)

Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others)

Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced

RD Chairman Sebastian Depolo (RD) - Speculative
Economist Claudia Sanhueza (RD) - Speculative
Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, 23,000 signatures (15,000 to go)
Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Announced, gathering signatures
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures with DRP support

Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced

Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, March 13th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/68%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 26%, Guillier 17%, Ossandon 4%, Lagos 2%, Parisi 2%, Goic 1%, Kast 1%, Insulza 1%, Farkas 1%, Ominami 1%, Others 4%, Undecided 40%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 45%, Guiller 20%, Lagos 2%, Ossandon 2%, Other/None 31%

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Criteria Research, March 15th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/71%

Chile Vamos Primary:
(among center-right, right voters)

Piñera 71%, Ossandon 12%, F. Kast 12%, Undecided 5%

Nueva Mayoria Primary:
(among center-left, left voters)

Guillier 62%, Goic 12%, Lagos 9%, Insulza 7%, Undecided 10%[/quote]

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Guillier 25%, Piñera 23%,  Lagos 7%, Parisi 5%, Ossandon 4%, Ominami 3%, Jackson 3%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 44%, Guiller 29%, Lagos 3%, Other/None 24%

Piñera/Guillier round: Guillier 41%, Piñera 36%, Undecided 23%

Piñera/Lagos round: Piñera 42%, Lagos 15%, Undecided 43%

Piñera/Insulza round: Piñera 40%, Insulza 22%, Undecided 38%

Piñera/Goic round: Piñera 39%, Goic 18%, Undecided 43%

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, March 20th:

Bachelet Approval: 22%/68%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 24%, Guillier 16%, Ossandon 3%, Lagos 2%, Goic 2%, Parisi 1%, Kast 1%, Insulza 1%, Ominami 1%, Mayol 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 42%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 44%, Guiller 17%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 1%, Goic 1%, Other/None 34%

[Lumine]

Indeed! I'll do a more detailed write-up later, but the updated list of candidates is as follows:

Updated field:

Nueva Mayoria:
(DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC)

Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced
Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced
Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced
Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced
Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced

Chile Vamos:
(UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli)

Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Announced
Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced
Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced

PRO:

Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced

Todos:

TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures

Pais:

Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced

Sentido Futuro:
(Ciudadanos + Amplitud + Red Liberal)

Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative

Frente Amplio:
(RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others)

Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced
Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Preparing a run

RD Chairman Sebastian Depolo (RD) - Speculative
Activist Luis Mesina (No+AFP's) - Speculative
Economist Claudia Sanhueza (RD) - Speculative
Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative
Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative

Independent, Other:

Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, 23,000 signatures (15,000 to go)
Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) -  Announced, gathering signatures
Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced
Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced
Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced
Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Still ambiguous

[Lumine]

Bit of a dubious one, but:

Opinion Poll:
UDD, March 26th:

Presidential:

Voting Intention (closed): Piñera 40%, Guillier 32%, Ossandon 10%, Goic 7%, Kast 7%, Lagos 4%.

Would you vote for Piñera: Yes/Maybe 50%, No 36%, Undecided 14%

What is your main reason to vote for Piñera: Economy 60%, Experience 18%, Not from the Nueva Mayoria 9%, He's the Right-Wing candidate 4%, Undecided 9%.

[Lumine]

Opinion Poll:

Plaza Publica Cadem, March 27th:

Bachelet Approval: 23%/67%

Presidential:

Voting Intention: Piñera 25%, Guillier 15%, Ossandon 3%, Lagos 3%, Goic 3%, Sanchez 2%, Parisi 1%, Kast 1%, Ominami 1%, Others 4%, Undecided 42%

Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 50%, Guiller 16%, Lagos 2%, Ossandon 1%, Goic 1%, Other/None 30%