US House Redistricting: Michigan

[freepcrusher]

here are my proposed lines. They are fairly similar to the old lines and still compact.

[freepcrusher]

1st District Dan Benishek (R–Crystal Falls) 92.2% White
Not much different. Basically an upper peninsula district that is swing territory. TOSSUP

2nd District Bill Huizenga (R–Zeeland) 84.4% White. Most ancestrally republican area of Michigan and it includes the Dutch colony in Ottawa County. Probably has a PVI of R+7. Likely Republican

3rd District Justin Amash (R–Cascade Township) 78.9% White. Takes in Grand Rapids (which has long been republican and where Ford used to represent) and some nearby rural counties. Probably an R+3 like district. Lean Republican.

4th District Dave Camp (R-Midland) 91% White. Tossup

5th District Dale Kildee (D-Flint) 76.6% White. Safe Dem.

6th District Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) 81.1% White Tossup

7th District Tim Wahlberg (R-Tipton) 83.1% White. With Ann Arbor excised out of the old 15th and added to this district, it makes it competitive. Tossup district.

8th Mike Rogers (R-Brighton) 84.9% White. While Lansing is not as strongly democratic as Ann Arbor, it is still very democratic giving Obama 65% of the vote. With Lansing in the district, this is now a tossup district.

9th Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) 76.3% White. Takes in the independent minded Detroit suburbs. Peters survived 2010 so he should be okay for the long run. Lean Dem

10th Candice Miller (R-Harrison Township) 88.4% White. Takes in most of Macomb and St Clair counties. The more republican areas to the north have been excised however and put in the 5th district. Lean Republican

11th Thad McCotter (R-Livonia) 80.1% White. Considering this contains Wayne County (which is strongly dem) and Oakland County (which is swing country), this is probably a lean dem district based on PVI. But McCotter seems to run well here despite his R affiliation. I'll say this is a Lean GOP district.

12th Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak) 59.4% White. This guy survived 1994 and 2010 and this district now takes in part of Wayne County. Safe Democrat


13th Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit) vs.
 John Conyers (D-Detroit)
49.6% Black, 36.8% White, 9% Hispanic, 2.2% Other, 2% Asian, .4% Native American
Since Detroit lost a lot of population, the old 13th had to take in most of the 14th. Conyers would win the primary here due to his seniority.

14th John Dingell (D-Dearborn) 59.1% White. If he's been re-elected nearly 30 times, they aren't going to just stop electing him. He is even more safe here as it adds some hyper-dem precincts from the Conyers' district. Dingell may retire soon though.

[freepcrusher]

I'd like to see krazen or BigSkyBob draw a map as to what they'd consider "fair", but they'll probably just argue that the current disgusting GOP gerrymander is a fair map.

A fair map would give the Democrats 6 districts; 1 in Flint/Saginaw, 1 in Detroit, 1 in Lower Oakland/Macomb, 1 in Wayne County, 1 in Washentaw/remainder of Wayne, and perhaps 1 in central Oakland. There is no other compelling strength of Democratic votes to guarantee them a 7th seat unless you decide to exclude extremely rational choices like attacking Ingram to neighboring Livingston County as was done in Debbie Stabenow's district.

The proposed maps include curious choices to needlessly reconfigure compact districts like the 6th that nicely sit in a corner of the state. Which are of course valid choices that adhere to municipal boundaries, but do not preclude the idea of other valid choices.

so a state that hasn't voted republican since 1988 is entitled to only six democratic seats? What are you smoking?