Which GOP Governor elected in 2018 will lose in 2022 ?

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Trump is reelected: Georgia

If a Democrat is elected: Likely None , but Iowa


I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If a Democrat is elected: Likely None , but Iowa

LMAO

Iowa is no where near as Republican as you claim just like NH wasnt as anywhere near as Dem as you claimed. The reasons are simple, both are pretty elastic states a concept you mock.


Georgia just isnt there for a Dem to win with a Dem Presidency, as Dems have to turnout huge for them to win Georiga and I dont see that happening with a Dem in the WH

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didn’t mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didn’t mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 

The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.

Dems still need huge turnout to win in GA and in a Dem Midterm they wont get that turnout.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didn’t mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 

The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.

Dems still need huge turnout to win in GA and in a Dem Midterm they wont get that turnout.

"Democrats need huge turnout to do well in elections." Well, duh. Clinton was hardly an inspiring candidate and still kept the state within five points.

In a Presidential Year, not in a Midterm. A Midterm with a Dem as President will cause low turnout and in states like Georgia that means a loss unless the Republicans basically commit and own goal or or the Dems have an incumbent, Which is why Dems barely scrapped by in Virginia in 2013 and 2014 . If Bill Bollings was the nominee in 2013 or Mark Warner retired in 2014 Dems lose both those races cause of turnout problems.

Clinton still got significantly higher turnout among the base then the Dems did in 2010 and 2014

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didn’t mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns  

The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.

Dems still need huge turnout to win in GA and in a Dem Midterm they wont get that turnout.

Dems got 46 percent in a D+4 presidential and 45 percent in a R+6 midterm. GA is inelastic and the non-white vote is only growing. The dam can break in 2022 with a Dem President. Especially with a figure like Abrams as the nominee.

Yes cause in 2012 The Atlanta Suburbs were Solidly Republican so it didnt matter if that area turned out or not. Also Des didnt contest the state at all in 2012 while they did in 2014, if it was uncontested in 2014 they lose by even a larger margin


Now they need the turnout to win , the Dam will break only with Trump as President.

[OSR stands with Israel]

"Democrats need huge turnout to do well in elections." Well, duh. Clinton was hardly an inspiring candidate and still kept the state within five points.

In a Presidential Year, not in a Midterm. A Midterm with a Dem as President will cause low turnout and in states like Georgia that means a loss unless the Republicans basically commit and own goal or or the Dems have an incumbent, Which is why Dems barely scrapped by in Virginia in 2013 and 2014 . If Bill Bollings was the nominee in 2013 or Mark Warner retired in 2014 Dems lose both those races cause of turnout problems.

Clinton still got significantly higher turnout among the base then the Dems did in 2010 and 2014

And in "states like Iowa" that means a win?

Remember I said the answer is likely none of the states will flip. And yes Dems can win low turnout elections in Iowa because there are more swing voters in Iowa than in Georgia. In a swing or leaning state like Georiga, elections are decided by turnout while in states like Iowa and New Hampshire they are decided by Swing Voters

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes cause in 2012 The Atlanta Suburbs were Solidly Republican so it didnt matter if that area turned out or not. Also Des didnt contest the state at all in 2012 while they did in 2014, if it was uncontested in 2014 they lose by even a larger margin


Now they need the turnout to win , the Dam will break only with Trump as President.

Huh? The argument from the Republicans on this forum is always about the national environment now it's about whether or not the state was contested? Carter/Nunn definitely did NOT contest the state as hard as Abrams did. They did not try to turn out low propensity voters of color they spent their energy on reliable "independent" whites. GA is getting less white by the second and white suburbans are abandoning the GA GOP. GOP won a low turnout runoff by 4 points. A mid to high turnout general election in 2022 is a tossup.

It won’t be with a dem in the WH is exactly what I am trying to say lol