NV Emerson: UTDH +7

[BudgieForce]

Is Emerson known for being too D friendly or just generally wrong?

For the longest time, Emerson was solely a land-line only pollster which meant their results skewed older and more republican.

However, they've recently sublimated their lack of cell phone polling with an opt-in online survey.

Which makes me even more cautious of their results since online surveys dont have a reputation for accuracy in the united states.

Edit: So yeah, its a data point. Just not one I'd put much stalk into.

[BudgieForce]

I think 2016 and Arkansas Yankee are getting way too ahead of themselves. Its very likely we'll get another poll with Rosen ahead so maybe chill out.

[BudgieForce]

Nothing about this polls subsets looks wrong(besides the Congressional district numbers). Honestly, it just looks like an outlier. They happen.

[BudgieForce]

It looks like Heller is really breaking out now. At this point, I'd rather be Phil Bredesen than Jacky Rosen.

Oh come on.

We've had two Heller +2(believable) and this(not believable).

We also have a history of Nevada under polling democrats unlike Tennessee which has a history of under polling republicans.

I'd much rather be Rosen right now.

[BudgieForce]

Hate to rock the boat, folks, but what if this whole "Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller" thing actually ends up being true? I'm not making an affirmative prediction that he will win, but now it's pretty obvious this is not in the bag for anyone, Jacky included.

Yes, I know, Nevada polls always underestimate Democrats and all that, but on average it's only been by 2 or 3 points, and in the 2016 Senate race Democratic overperformance was only +0.6. So at the very least I'd say we have a tied race here.

And say what you will about Emerson, but they are a B+ rated pollster and actually have a D+0.1 mean-reverted bias. I agree that we should be skeptical of their polls when they have something like 25% undecided, but in this poll the undecideds stand at a fairly normal 11%.

538 increased their rating because they added online surveys to supplement for their lack of calling cell phones. Ive said multiple times how I think that was wrong on 538s part.