U.K General Election 2005 (user search)
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Author Topic: U.K General Election 2005  (Read 23640 times)
patrick1
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,865


« on: October 11, 2004, 11:22:30 PM »
« edited: October 11, 2004, 11:43:07 PM by patrick1 »

These are my projections (made shortly before Hartlepool) for the election:

UK Totals

Seats to change hands

Ulster is no longer part of the U.K.?  I'm not complaining but I will take it upon myself to make some tentative predictions for the 18 constituencies in the North of Ireland.  This is assuming that neither side boycotts the election or something similar.
key of abreviations: SF-Sinn Fein-radical nationalist/left wing socialist-a party made up of Catholics it is traditionally linked as political arm of the I.R.A.  Calls for the end of British or foreign 'occupationn" and reunification with Republic of Ireland.  SDLP-Social Democratic and Labour Party-Christian Democrat and Nationalist-founded by Catholics and protestants it is now an overwhelmingly Catholic party that advocates a more gradual approach to re-unification with Ireland. SDLP is generally centre left.  D.U.P.-Democratic Unionist Party- is a hardline Unionist party that is traditionally anti-Catholic in nature and leadership.  The party rejects the Good Friday peace agreement due to the inclusion of "terrorists" Sinn Fein.  D.U.P. tends to be left economically and extreme right on social issues. UUP-Ulster Unionist Party-Protestant Unionist party that supported peace accord.  Traditionally it votes with Conservative Party-They tend centre right economically and socially.  This synopsis is just a broad generalization intended to give someone not familiar a basic idea of what parties are about.
There are many other parties but none of which stand to win seats.  Largest is Alliance Party-non sectarian-mostly party of more wealthy Protestants and some Catholics.  Most like Lib. Dems in Britain proper.   

East Belfast- safe D.U.P.
North Belfast- lean D.U.P. but if D.U.P. and UUP split their vote evenly enough  Sinn Fein could win this seat
West Belfast-Safe Sinn Fein-Gerry Adams' seat
South Belfast- safe UUP
North Antrim-safe DUP, Ian Paisley's seat
South Antrim-toss up-currently UUP, I predict D.U.P.
East Antrim- toss up currently UUP-I predict D.U.P.
North Down-lean UUP, hold for UUP
South Down-safe SDLP
Upper Bann-toss up-Trimble's-UUP leaders seat-I predict that UUP holds on barely
Newry and Armargh-currently SDLP-I predict SF
Lagan Valley-??? Donaldson elected UUP but has since changed to DUP.  I don't know how his district will react
Strangford-strong DUP
West Tyrone-strong SF
Mid Ulster-strong SF, Martin McGuinness seat
Fermanagh and South Tyrone-  traditional swing district- Sinn Fein holds seat and should maintain.
Foyle-John Hume-SDLP leader seat is retiring- lean SDLP, posssibility for a Sinn Fein upset
East Londonderry-Safe DUP

8-D.U.P., 5 Sinn Fein. 3 U.U.P and 2 SDLP.  UUP was once largest party I see their continuing downfall.  The districts and actually demographics of N.I. are such that I do not see the 11 for "Protestant parties" and 7 seats for Catholics changing.  Current Ulster population is about 54% "Protestant" 46% "Catholic"
There are also many people who don't identify with either religion but this is probably a good breakdown on sympathies as the vast majority of Protestant wish to remain part of U.K. and most Catholics want to become part of Ireland.
Again this is a generalization.



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patrick1
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,865


« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2004, 04:42:23 PM »


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I would largely agree with this prediction. However there are 2 close constituencies which I would call differently, at this early stage.

South Antrim - Predict UUP , Burnside on the hardline side of the UUP should be able to hold on.

Foyle - Predict SF, Once Hume goes so will a very large chunk of his vote.

Therefore I see NI as going: DUP 7; SF 6; UUP 4; SDLP 1.

It is of course probably reckless to predict anything at this stage, given the current discussions underway and their potential outcomes.

One final point, it is irksome to read of Ulster as Ulster = Northern Ireland. It does not. I am from that part of Ulster within the Republic. A small point maybe, but one which I feel the need to Express.
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I agree with you on the Foyle- I think S.F. will probably pick this up. Do you live in Donegal, Cavan or Monaghan???  I agree with you on use of term Ulster.  I just got lazy and was using as shorthand. There are nine counties in the province not six.  The election should be interesting and a lot could change.  It would be strange to see the S.D.L.P. wind up with only one seat.  Is Mark Durkin running the party aground? 
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