U.K General Election 2005

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I thought it made some sence to start this thread afresh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I hope that Blair will lose and libdem will win. The last poll was good for libdem isn't it?

I think that the best thing for Blai is that tories leader is not attractive: UK is not a far-right country. But I'm not an expert.

"Good" is relative... they'll win around 25% of the total vote in the election (I think), which is an improvement over the 18% they got last time, but nowhere near Government level.
They've picked up a lot of middle class voters, but have failed to make much ground amoung working class voters...

They've swung to the right recently... but have cleverly masked this with rhetoric and policy gimmiks... as an example they are proposing a slight increase in income tax for the rich... BUT all they intend to use the money for is to "cut Government waste".
Bizzare.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Latest ICM poll:

Labour: 36%
Tories: 32%
LibDem: 22%
UKIP: 3%
Nat: 3%
Grn: 2%

No .pdf yet

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The Tories are such an embarassment of a party I can't believe anyone can vote for them in good conscience.

Basically, Britain has a Socialist Party (Labour), a Social Democratic Party (Tories) and No Purpose Other Than Having a Cushy Job Party (LibDem). What a set of choices.

With Tony Blair, Labour party is not a socialist party but a centrist-right party. Conservative is a hard-right party and libdem splitted with labour party because labour party was too left but today libdems are more left than labour party. The last right swing of the libdem is very stupid: There is a "boulevard" to left (working class, pacifist,...) but unfortunatly they are stupid to not see that.  
But it's just my opinion...

Some articles from todays Guardian:

You Don't Fool Me

LibDems have been "hijacked"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM have released the .pdf (yay!) and I've had a read through. The poll shows:

1. Labour's support lead amoung C2's and DE's
2. Tories lead amoung AB's and C1's
3. LibDems strongest amoung AB's and C1's. They have still failed to make a breakthrough with Working Class voters
4. UKIP strongest amoung C1's

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM have released the .pdf (yay!) and I've had a read through. The poll shows:

1. Labour's support lead amoung C2's and DE's
2. Tories lead amoung AB's and C1's
3. LibDems strongest amoung AB's and C1's. They have still failed to make a breakthrough with Working Class voters
4. UKIP strongest amoung C1's

Al, pleace elaborate for us poor foreigners. What's C2, DE, AB (Probably not the Danish football club by that name ) ect )

AB=Upper Middle Class
C1=Lower Middle Class
C2=Skilled Working Class
DE=Semi Skilled/Unskilled Working Class

It's more than a bit vauge, not very accurate and illogical (C2's are more like DE's than C1's).
I prefer:

I-Professional
II-Managerial/Technical
III-Skilled (non-manual)
IIIM-Skilled (manual)
IV-Partly Skilled
V-Unskilled

As it's more accurate/logical/detailed. Tragically, pollsters like using the ABCDE system...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To further help you understand, here is a map of the seats won in the last election:

Isn't all that red nice on the eyes?

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"Newcastle area"? Bah! It's the North East! Mackems will never bow to to Newcastle Imperialism!

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A result of Class Politics mostly

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East End is always Red though... although the Tories did O.K there in the '80's, that was a fluke.

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Which seat went to the conservatives by the largest margin?

Richmond, North Yorkshire (Bandwagon Billy's seat)
Labour's biggest % majority was Bootle (biggest numerical was Easington)
LibDems biggest majority was in Kingston and Surbiton
SNP's biggest majority was in Banff and Buchan (Salmonds seat)
PC's biggest majority was in Merionydd-Nant Conwy

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PS - I only say because I've seen it around a few times, 'amoung' isn't a word.

"Among" is. The "U" makes it look nicer

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2001 Results for Richmond:

Con 58.9%
Lab 21.9%
LD   17.9%
MRLP 1.3%
--------------
maj 37%

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Nat: 3%
Grn: 2%
No .pdf yet

HOLY $h!+!!! The neonazis are more popular than the Greens?? Has Britain tumbled out of control?

"Nat"=derogatory word for the SNP and PC

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Major knew the Conservatives were going to lose the next election a couple of years before it actually happened. In my opinion one of his biggest failures was not re-drawing the constituencies when he had the chance. Does anyone know what steps would need to be taken in order to change the constituencies here?

Actually they were redrawn for 1997: Summary of Partisan Effects of the 1997 Boundary Changes

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As a point of interest:

The number of seats in Scotland is to be reduced from 72 to 59 at the next election. This will probably cut 10 off the Labour majority to start with. If Wales gets legislative powers after the next election, expect their seats to be cut from 40 to 33ish.

The Boundaries Commision for Wales (or whatever it's called) seems to have decided that 40 seats is just fine... I think they're getting rid of a seat in North Wales (Caernarfon IIRC) and adding a seat somewhere in South Wales.

Besides, if Wales *did* lose a load of seats, most would be some the underpopulated rural ones in Mid, North and West Wales, as opposed to the Industrial South.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some bad/out of date polls have been published today:

1. A Mori/Observer poll done immediately after the messy reshuffle (with the very negative media coverage) has Labour and the Tories statistically tied.
Exactly why it's being published now and not after it was actually done is an interesting question... would the Obverser hold back publication to the point where the poll is useless, for maximum impact? Would a newspaper do a thing like that?
Ho Hum...

2. A blatently rigged poll for the Independent on Sunday, by a firm I've never heard of ("Communication Research" I think) has Labour on 32pts, the Tories on 30pts and the LibDems on 27pts.
The poll was conducted during the LibDem conference with most interviews on the day of Kennedy's speech (which despite being awful, got positive media reviews. Don't know why...) and the polling firm adds that it added a question to "squeeze the leaners" and that it got it's turnout model in a really strange way...

3. Apparently an even more blatently rigged poll has been published in some rag (don't know or care which) showing Labour in third.
I think the poll was done by Populus. A poll by those partisan buggers published in a tabloid.
Ho Hum...

From which I draw the following devastating conclusions:

1. The British polling industry is both a sick joke and the media's whore.
2. It needs regulating
3. Now
4. Hell, even Zogby could do a better job

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've just checked some polls from immediately after the LibDem conference/just before the Labour conference last year:

They are suspiciously similer to the dubious crop of polls above.
Ho Hum... anyone would think that the media was trying to create stories and influence Government policy via opinion polls...

Now why might people think that?

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showing Labour in third.

Fat chance of that happening

I'm thinking of setting up a polling firm and just making the results up... yes... it'll be interesting to see how accurate such a firm would be compared to others...

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Hey lets give it a go! The AFLeitch Associates Polling Organisation or 'AFLAPO' founed...right now... released a poll showing Labour on 38%, Conservatives on 35%, Lib Dems on 22% and Others/Undecided at 5%

Try and get it published in your local rag

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1. Tradition mostly. The LibDems have always done well in Mid Wales, the Highlands and the West Country. The Borders swung liberalward because of David Steel.

2. The core of both countries are old industrial areas (solidly, nay, fanatically Labour mostly). The Tories used to do well in affluent suburbs and some rural areas (and in the case of Scotland, some industrial seats due to Sectarianism).
The Sectarianism is mostly gone and the Tories are associated forever with the South East.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Times/Populus Poll:

Lab: 35%
Con: 28%
LD: 25%

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Any ideas for the top 10 seats to watch?

Shrewsbury & Atcham has to be on the list methinks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's a few:

Rochdale (Cyril Smith's {LD} old seat - they've got be dying to get it back from Labour)
Falmouth & Cambourne (Labour hold it but this is a true 3-way)
Colne Valley (God only knows what will happen here - another 3-way - LDs have a good chance)
West Dorset (Because Letwin will lose)
Thanet South (Strong UKIP presence - could go anywhere)
Boston & Skegness (UKIP/Lab/Con 3-way marginal - probably where Kilroy will stand)
Shrewsbury & Atcham (Seat of the defector - the LDs might just get the swing - could be fun)
Guildford (LD/Con marginal - I know the Tory candidate, so I'll be watching anyway)
Sunderland South - Will they beat their record for declaration of 43 minutes

Brent East will be interesting as well... "The Hamster" won because of the Muslim vote going en bloc to her.
The Labour candidate this time round is Muslim...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rochdale is a bit of an enigma... I'll have to have a look at old and/or local election results.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good analysis.

Just curious, but what seat are you in?

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New NOP/Independent poll:

Lab 36, Con 34, LD 21, UKIP 4

NOP guestimates a solid Labour majority: 84 seats

LibDems are on 27% with women, but only 17% with men.
Tories lead the "Grey Vote".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New NOP/Independent poll:

Lab 36, Con 34, LD 21, UKIP 4

NOP guestimates a solid Labour majority: 84 seats

See this is what I don't get. I have been told by many Brits that the Conservatives have no chance in taking back Parliament yet this poll shows them only 2% down. Is it for a specific seat? What am I missing?

Okaaaay...
This is how the U.K electoral system works:
The House of Commons is in effect a 650 odd (I always forget the exact number) strong House of Representatives.
People in each constituency vote for an M.P (ie: a Congressman). If a party wins a majority of seats in the Commons, the leader of that party becomes Prime Minister.
Popular vote numbers are about as useless as they are in U.S Presidential elections; in 1929, 1951 and 1974-feburary the party which came second in total votes cast won the most seats (Labour in '29, the Tories in '51 and Labour in '74f).

Labour's apparent in-built advantage stems from the fact that Labour voters (who tend to be low income/blue collar types) are much less likely to vote than supporters of other parties.
As a result Labour needs less votes to win a seat than the other main parties (I call this "latent voting") and appears to have an unfair advantage (on the other hand, I think it's equally unfair to give rich areas more political clout than poor areas).

Electoral boundaries are decided by a non-partisan committee, gerrymandering happens when representatives from various interest groups try to influence the Commisions findings (there are several public consulatations). This isn't a major problem at national level (but is a serious problem for local council wards; as an example the Tories won control over Trafford MBC because the Local commision adopted a blatently gerrymandered ward map).
Malapportionment (ie: giving an area waaaaay more seats than it's population should allow under a quota system) is a major problem in Scotland, but this won't be the case next election as the number of Scottish seats is to be drastically reduced.