U.K General Election 2005

[Silent Hunter]

Good analysis.

[Silent Hunter]

I won't ID my specific seat, but it's currently Labour controlled and it's likely to go back to the Conservatives.

Seats to watch in London: Bow and Bethnal Green or Poplar and Canning Town. Galloway may well attempt a run in either of these seats. Large minority population with both MPs voting for the Iraq war.

[Silent Hunter]

The Boundary Commission are altering the England and Wales boundaries for the election after next, Scotland for this one.

Scotland's losing 13 seats because of devolution- it's no longer guaranteed 72 seats. Result, the better named Glasgow constituencies like Springburn and Govan are becoming new seats like Glasgow Central and Glasgow East. Reid and Brown have to find new seats as does George 'I salute your courage' Galloway, the only Respect MP. Glasgow isn't renowned for it's ethnic diversity hence the guy's going to try and grab an East End seat. Labour haven't lost a seat there since '45.

[Silent Hunter]

That's true. I think it was actually one or two voters.

[Silent Hunter]

The NI parties can be important with a minority government.
1979- One NI MP abstaining swung the no-confidence vote against Callaghan (it ended 311-310).
1995- Major had to rely on the UUP because of the 'whipless wonders'.

[Silent Hunter]

Latest ICM/Guardian poll:
Labour 38
Conservative 30
Lib Dem 22

That's enough for a Labour majority of 128. I don't think we'll get that though.

For more on the poll:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,,1354816,00.html

[Silent Hunter]

Nice Guardian editorial:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,9115,1356543,00.html

[Silent Hunter]

With apologies to J.J., here I go with my rules of British elections.

1. If a party starts talking about a large number of undecideds that could all go their way, they won't and that party is going to lose big time.
2. The grey vote affects the colour of the whole country.
3. More people will read about the Party Political Broadcasts than watch them.

Some things for US election watchers:
1. Avoid the papers like the plague, they will be as biased as Michael Moore.
2. You won't see it, but British TV will be sure to be extra fair to the point of delaying soap opera episodes if they're a bit too political.


Al, if the election's 5 May, when does Blair have to do the dissolution? My calculations say 11 April.