GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)

[JRP1994]

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.

Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

As do I. And we both know that Carter and Nunn basically matched Obama's 2012 performance among a historically diverse presidential year electorate with a much older, much whiter midterm year electorate, in what turned out to be one of the worst midterm years for Democrats in recent political history.

[JRP1994]

I agree with Seriously? to the extent that Georgia shouldn't be considered Leans D or even Tossup yet. It's still a healthy Leans R, because most undecided voters typically skew Republican. Libertarians typically do relatively well here, and it's not clear Clinton can turn out the Obama coalition enough to compensate for the redneck Trump vote. But Georgia is no lock for Trump, and money spent defending Georgia is money that can't be spent attacking Pennsylvania.

[JRP1994]

I doubt Gary Johnson will get 10, but 3 is plausible, so the winner would need just 48.5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/

Interesting when compared to 2012.

The ATL Exurbs then were 35-61 Obama-Romney, now 33-51 Clinton-Trump.
The ATL Metro was 63-32 for Obama, now 69-20.
SE GA was 41-50 Obama-Romney, now 44-34 Clinton-Trump.
SW GA was 50-45 Obama-Romney, now tied (so 1 area Trump has strength in, or just noise).

College vote was 44-52 Obama-Romney, now flipped 47-36 Clinton-Trump.

The biggest question is which way the many undecides will swing, especially in the ATL exurbs, and most Johnson voters who'll inevitably peel off as the election nears (sorry for the reality check Atlas ). That probably bodes well for Trump. Though since the race doesn't require a runoff if no one gets a majority , unlike governor and senate races, Hillary has a decent chance of pulling out the plurality.

The Atlanta exurb counties are reliably Republican. I highly doubt that the undecideds there go to Clinton. Those voters are more likely to be blue collar than white collar.

And ProudModerate, nothing is getting under my skin. The numbers are what they are. But you are at peak Hillary! right now. If she's up +9 nationally, she could have a lead in Georgia. But I digress. These numbers will come back to normal in the weeks and months to come.

That's entirely possible. But it's also possible that this is the beginning of the end for Trump, and that Clinton will be up 15-18 by election day. We just have to wait and see.