Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[ugabug]

I'm kinda surprised that Russia would try to attack Kiev directly and risk urban warfare instead of trying to surround it and get it under a siege.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm kinda surprised that Russia would try to attack Kiev directly and risk urban warfare instead of trying to surround it and get it under a siege.

The longer this takes the higher the risk that dissatisfaction grows in Russia. Putin needs to end this quickly.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm kinda surprised that Russia would try to attack Kiev directly and risk urban warfare instead of trying to surround it and get it under a siege.

Some of their offensive axes (Chernobyl; Kherson; apparently also Sumy) are going a lot better for them than others (Chernihiv; Kharkiv; Donbas). I'm sure the original plan was a siege--all the intelligence and #analysis we saw from people "in the know" like Rubio indicated as much--but no battle plan survives contact with the enemy, just as no philosophy of teaching survives contact with the student body and no strategy for marriage survives contact with the spouse.

[Storr]

I'm kinda surprised that Russia would try to attack Kiev directly and risk urban warfare instead of trying to surround it and get it under a siege.

I'm not. Russia wants to finish this a quickly as possible. The longer this "special operation" takes, the worse for Moscow. Hopefully Ukraine can hold the Russians at bay from Kyiv.

[Omega21]

Very credible source:

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1497130122272509954

[Zinneke]

I'm kinda surprised that Russia would try to attack Kiev directly and risk urban warfare instead of trying to surround it and get it under a siege.

The longer this takes the higher the risk that dissatisfaction grows in Russia. Putin needs to end this quickly.

How the hell does he think this ends quickly? Zelensky dying? His puppet hanging on to a fractured state with loads of militia and criminal gangs picking off young Russians and sending them out 1 by 1?

This ain't Belarus. By now there are stay behind networks that will be tossing a Javelin into a patrolling tank then going to hide in the woods.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm kinda surprised that Russia would try to attack Kiev directly and risk urban warfare instead of trying to surround it and get it under a siege.

The longer this takes the higher the risk that dissatisfaction grows in Russia. Putin needs to end this quickly.

How the hell does he think this ends quickly? Zelensky dying? His puppet hanging on to a fractured state with loads of militia and criminal gangs picking off young Russians and sending them out 1 by 1?

This ain't Belarus. By now there are stay behind networks that will be tossing a Javelin into a patrolling tank then going to hide in the woods.

Zelensky being martyred certainly doesn't look like something that should help Putin. Zelensky's the type of person who could actually solve at least some of the manifold issues Ukraine faces, unlike the former president, and he seems rather popular still. If you want him out of office, fine, but Zelensky is not at all a figure you want to make into a martyr.

[Storr]

It's looking like today will be a critical day for Kyiv: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497145842637156355?s=20&t=WKJMxhH...

[jaichind]

With sanctions not hitting Russian exports of raw materials and being paid for it, Russian gas started to flow again into Europe, some via Ukraine.  Gas prices fell 20% on this supply surge.  Russian equities up 12%.  Gas still way up from a few days ago and Russian equities still way down from a few days ago but the trend has reversed.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/emilyparcell/status/1497039210620293123?s=20&t=Bp5UfDRqv...
Sobering. God protect these people. 🇺🇦

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

With sanctions not hitting Russian exports of raw materials and being paid for it, Russian gas started to flow again into Europe, some via Ukraine.  Gas prices fell 20% on this supply surge.  Russian equities up 12%.  Gas still way up from a few days ago and Russian equities still way down from a few days ago but the trend has reversed.

I swear, if business and material interests win out over the security and freedom of the Ukrainian people… Though I guess I really shouldn’t be surprised, they always seem to in the end.

[DavidB.]

It seems Olaf Scholz indicated he cannot support cutting Russia off from SWIFT.

The SPD is worthless. Completely in Putin's pocket. If they are the ones frustrating a coherent and robust Western or European response, that should have consequences for the way we view the Scholz govt.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/MattMcBradley/status/1497138888304857090?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497149714520850433?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7...

[jaichind]

It seems Olaf Scholz indicated he cannot support cutting Russia off from SWIFT.

The SPD is worthless. Completely in Putin's pocket. If they are the ones frustrating a coherent and robust Western or European response, that should have consequences for the way we view the Scholz govt.

CDU would have done the same.  Shutting down SWIFT and Russia imports would have triggered an economic crisis in Germany.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/donaldtuskepp/status/1497120868367056896?s=21

For what it's worth, I'm noticing increasing calls to exclude Russia from SWIFT from my own Green bubble (mostly in form of a growing number of second-tier politicians) as well as from the ranks of the CDU. Still, we can't possibly continue debating this until after Kyiv has fallen. There's a time for debate and a time for action and the time for action is now. Germany's too sluggish, but that has always been kind of the problem when it came to foreign policy crisises in the past.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems Olaf Scholz indicated he cannot support cutting Russia off from SWIFT.

The SPD is worthless. Completely in Putin's pocket. If they are the ones frustrating a coherent and robust Western or European response, that should have consequences for the way we view the Scholz govt.

CDU would have done the same.  Shutting down SWIFT and Russia imports would have triggered an economic crisis in Germany.

This may the talking point used by those who oppose excluding Russia from SWIFT, but it's not necessarily the case. As I wrote earlier, excluding Russia doesn't make buying gas impossible, it only makes it harder and more expensive. It's an inconvenience some want to avoid at the expense of the Ukrainians.

[dead0man]

It seems Olaf Scholz indicated he cannot support cutting Russia off from SWIFT.

The SPD is worthless. Completely in Putin's pocket. If they are the ones frustrating a coherent and robust Western or European response, that should have consequences for the way we view the Scholz govt.

CDU would have done the same.  Shutting down SWIFT and Russia imports would have triggered an economic crisis in Germany.

oh no, we can't have that!  Germans are a soft, weak people who aren't known for their business acumen.  The world must protect the German economy!  If a few tens of thousands of Ukrainians must die, well that's a small price to pay to keep the German economy ticking smoothly.

[Logical]

I don't know how accurate this is (found it on twitter), but this seems to be an informative graphic on the dispositions of Ukrainian and Russian Forces as of yesterday night, tracked using OSInt.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tbh, "we can't risk our wealth!" is about the first reaction in any kind of crisis that comes up in Germany, be it the financial crisis/European debt crisis of the late 2000 and early 2010, the refugee crisis of 2015 or now Ukraine. It resembles the attitude of a millionaire who's afraid of the government raising taxes on him. #FirstWorldProblems

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1497144822020259840

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497156854484512790?s=20&t=4k3u3vC...

[jaichind]

oh no, we can't have that!  Germans are a soft, weak people who aren't known for their business acumen.  The world must protect the German economy!  If a few tens of thousands of Ukrainians must die, well that's a small price to pay to keep the German economy ticking smoothly.

I think is less about Germans being "weak" versus Ukraine is not a core issue for Germany.  Russia will get hit badly on the medium run by these sanctions yet Russian elites are behind their course of action.  The reason why is because they view Ukraine as part of their core national interests.  Swap out Ukraine for New Zealand and Putin did the same thing he would be soon put in the nuthouse by his followers.

This is why I have always been for the Great Power sphere-of-influences approach for international Great Power competitions.  Here I am 100% aligned with Putin in terms of what the international political model should look like. There should be a concert of Great Powers that make clear to each other what their core interets are and what they are not.  There will still be competition and conflict but the payoff matrix is clear to everyone.

Clearly, I do not approve of what Putin did.  He basically retroactively drew some red lines and claim that NATO and Ukraine crossed them.  It is clear he wanted to do this back in 2014 and was too weak to do so and think he is strong enough today to do it.  He should have at least given an ultimatum with a due day so all parties can negotiate with Russia knowing what is at stake and the consequences.  Putin kept on saying he will not invade and then claim his opponents cross a retroactively constructed red line and attacked.  He is not really obeying his own principles which I do agree with.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

With sanctions not hitting Russian exports of raw materials and being paid for it, Russian gas started to flow again into Europe, some via Ukraine.  Gas prices fell 20% on this supply surge.  Russian equities up 12%.  Gas still way up from a few days ago and Russian equities still way down from a few days ago but the trend has reversed.

I swear, if business and material interests win out over the security and freedom of the Ukrainian people… Though I guess I really shouldn’t be surprised, they always seem to in the end.

The Cold War was about capitalism and socialism, not freedom. When two capitalist powers come up against each other, it seems, business interests will be allowed to win.

[dead0man]

oh no, we can't have that!  Germans are a soft, weak people who aren't known for their business acumen.  The world must protect the German economy!  If a few tens of thousands of Ukrainians must die, well that's a small price to pay to keep the German economy ticking smoothly.

I think is less about Germans being "weak" versus Ukraine is not a core issue for Germany.  Russia will get hit badly on the medium run by these sanctions yet Russian elites are behind their course of action.  The reason why is because they view Ukraine as part of their core national interests.  Swap out Ukraine for New Zealand and Putin did the same thing he would be soon put in the nuthouse by his followers.

This is why I have always been for the Great Power sphere-of-influences approach for international Great Power competitions.  Here I am 100% aligned with Putin in terms of what the international political model should look like. There should be a concert of Great Powers that make clear to each other what their core interets are and what they are not.  There will still be competition and conflict but the payoff matrix is clear to everyone.

Clearly, I do not approve of what Putin did.  He basically retroactively drew some red lines and claim that NATO and Ukraine crossed them.  It is clear he wanted to do this back in 2014 and was too weak to do so and think he is strong enough today to do it.  He should have at least given an ultimatum with a due day so all parties can negotiate with Russia knowing what is at stake and the consequences.  Putin kept on saying he will not invade and then claim his opponents cross a retroactively constructed red line and attacked.  He is not really obeying his own principles which I do agree with.

I don't know about any of that.  All I know is that if an entity can punish Putin right now, but doesn't because it might hurt their economy, that entity sucks and should be punished by the rest of us.  Perhaps we should start with sanctions.

[jaichind]

Due to very low gas reserves in Europe and shutting down for a day of any Russian gas exports the act of turning on the gas again to Europe to make up for the shortfall PLUS build up extra reserves meant the capacity utilization of gas pipes reached an unprecedented level especially, ironically, for the gas pipes from Russia through Ukraine.  

Ukraine kept on talking about more sanctions on Russia.  They can do their own sanction.  Just blow up those gas pipes and Russia's ability to export to Europe and get paid for it will be dealt a severe blow.  Of course, the reason they do not is they need the money.  So it is not just the Germans that care about money.  So does Ukraine even though they are getting invaded.