NY state (user search)
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Poll
Question: will Trump break 50 percent?
#1
yes
 
#2
no
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: NY state  (Read 1253 times)
Vosem
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Posts: 15,639
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: April 16, 2016, 02:27:55 PM »

As long as his support is consistent throughout the state, there's no difference between 55% and 60%.

But...his support is not consistent throughout the state. If you accept the Optimus poll's conclusions, in fact, his extremely heavy support in some very-populated districts (Long Island and Staten Island) actually disfavors him, and he would need ~52% of the vote statewide to cross 50% in a majority of congressional districts (keep in mind he's penalized a delegate for every district he doesn't eclipse 50% in, and 2 if someone else wins the plurality).

Trump is the first EXCITING Republican New Yorkers have seen in ages.  He's the first New Yorker to run for President since Thomas Dewey (unless you count Eisenhower in 1952 or Nixon in 1968, folks who moved to NY, but were not New Yorkers), and will be the first New Yorker on a national ticket since William Miller in 1964 (unless you count Jack Kemp, who was a resident of Maryland at the time of his VP selection). 

No love for Nelson Rockefeller or Rudy Giuliani? Or Steve Forbes? trump will be among their ranks, of New Yorkers who failed to win the nomination, very soon. (Or was Forbes from New Jersey? I forget).
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