Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[VPH]

What I find fascinating is the ethnic issue divide on religion. With QS, the PQ, and CAQ all opposing allowing head coverings for officers, it's clear that their reasoning is not quite the same. QS and to an extent PQ seem more interested in Laicite, like in France. CAQ, because of some of their proposals like the values test, seem a bit more interested in isolating Quebec from immigration.

[Tintrlvr]

What I find fascinating is the ethnic issue divide on religion. With QS, the PQ, and CAQ all opposing allowing head coverings for officers, it's clear that their reasoning is not quite the same. QS and to an extent PQ seem more interested in Laicite, like in France. CAQ, because of some of their proposals like the values test, seem a bit more interested in isolating Quebec from immigration.

PQ has mixed feelings about immigration as well; there's a large opinion divide between the PQ in Montreal and the PQ in the rest of Quebec.

And CAQ isn't resistant to the Quebec-should-be-like-France narrative at all. They just don't want to be independent (currently).

[Poirot]

Léger poll done April 6 to 8 on the web.
http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Politique%20provinciale%20%20QC-Avril%2020182.pdf

Léger had the biggest lead among of the three pollsters last month. The lead has narrowed and is now more in line with the other two last poll.

CAQ 34%
PLQ 29%
PQ 21%
QS 9%
Vert 3%
Cons 2$
NPDQ 1%

The PLQ has increased its vote among non-francophones. It's at 75% with all other parties below 10%. The francophone vote numbers are stable: CAQ 41, PQ 25, PLQ 16, QS 11. Léger probably has the worst PLQ franco result.
CAQ has 47% in Quebec City area and 41% in Quebec's "regions".

Gender imbalance for CAQ and QS. CAQ scores 37% with men and 30% with women. QS has 6% men and 13% women.
By age group, the PLQ leads the 18-34 years old with 35%. in the over 55 CAQ has 40% followed by PLQ at 28%.

27% are satisfied with the government (57% among non-franco), 66% are not satisfied (75% among franco).

For best Premier, every leader gets less than their party's vote intention. Legault leads with 28%, the others have abouth half the party's voting intentions.

The parties that never held power represent change. 31% say CAQ represents change the most, 15% QS, 10% for the other two.

36% think CAQ will win next election, PLQ 27%. PQ 9%, QS 2%.

From a list of issues proposed by the pollster, the priority for the next election campaign:
22% lower taxes
15% better care for elderly
11% better access to family doctor
11% reduce hospital emergency wait time
11% create and maintain jobs
10% give teachers bettere means to educate students

A question on immigration level.
5% think increase immigration a lot.
10% increase a little
38% maintain
30% diminish
14% totally stop immigration

Source of information in the next election: 52% tv, 19% social media, 17% newspaper, 12% radio. Among the 18-34 social media is first.

[DC Al Fine]

Makes you wonder what campaigning will look like when millennials are the older generation.

[Poirot]

Looks like it's based on a millenial sample of 122 so could be due to that. In the last Mainstreet poll the 18-34 were 29% CAQ and 23% PLQ. The older subgroup is not divided like Léger. The over 65 prefer PLQ with 42% over CAQ 26%. And they have a 50-64 age group that goes 38% CAQ to 26% CAQ.

[Poirot]

Jean-Martin Aussant is back in the PQ, which is kind of like jumping from the Titanic to the Andrea Doria.

http://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/02/21/jean-martin-aussant-annoncera-son-retour-au-pq-jeudi_a_23367846/

Aussant wants the nomination in Pointe-aux-Trembles. He has the support of retiring MNA. The problem for him is Maxime Laporte declared for the nomination right after the retirement announcement. Laporte succeeded Mario Beaulieu has head of the Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste. Beaulieu the local MP, supports him as is former premier Bernard Landry.

Jean-Martin Aussant won the PQ nomination with 64% of the votes.

[Poirot]

Has there ever been demand for electoral reform in Quebec?

Last year all opposition parties have agreed on the idea of a mixed member proportional sytem based on regions. I don't know if they are all very committed to it of if they would agree on the details of the system.

Recently Legault said he was for a mixed proportional system. I guess the three opposition parties are still for it.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm surprised talk of electoral reform isn't bigger in Quebec. You'd think they would be the first province to want to get rid of an antiquated British system.

[mileslunn]

I'm surprised talk of electoral reform isn't bigger in Quebec. You'd think they would be the first province to want to get rid of an antiquated British system.

True, although France uses a majoritarian system like Britain.  They have run off elections based on constituencies.  In fact I believe UK and France are the only two countries in Western Europe that still use majoritarian systems while in the EU, Hungary and Lithuania use hybrid systems, but of the 28 member states, those four are the only ones that don't use some form of PR. 

Looking closer to Quebec, I can see why PQ and QS favour one to avoid splitting but CAQ might actually be harmed in the long run.  If the CAQ wins and PLQ loses, the next PLQ leader will likely be centre-left (similar to Trudeau and Wynne on the political spectrum) as opposed to centre-right (Couillard is centre-right as was the last leader Jean Charest) so that could make it more difficult for the CAQ do get anything done.  Quebec doesn't have a large enough population really for two centre-right parties.  It's only due to unique circumstances it works at the moment.

[BigSkyBob]

I'm surprised talk of electoral reform isn't bigger in Quebec. You'd think they would be the first province to want to get rid of an antiquated British system.

True, although France uses a majoritarian system like Britain.  They have run off elections based on constituencies.  In fact I believe UK and France are the only two countries in Western Europe that still use majoritarian systems while in the EU, Hungary and Lithuania use hybrid systems, but of the 28 member states, those four are the only ones that don't use some form of PR. 

The bonus seats awarded to the largest party in Greece is anything but PR. It is clearly a hybrid between PR and FPTP(on the national scale.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah, the French system is one of the few I would consider worse than FPTP. I'm glad that Quebec is kicking around MMP for electoral reform instead.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think the French system is worse, as in theory it should mean the winner should have the majority support of the electorate (though if the top 2 candidates received fewer than 50% of the vote, this is not the case).

There are worse electoral systems than FPTP though, like the system used in municipal elections in BC (plurality at-large voting; should be noted this is used outside of BC too, but it's worse in partisan elections). Also very surprised that the province that will likely get electoral reform first has such a terrible system for municipal elections.

[mileslunn]

I'm surprised talk of electoral reform isn't bigger in Quebec. You'd think they would be the first province to want to get rid of an antiquated British system.

True, although France uses a majoritarian system like Britain.  They have run off elections based on constituencies.  In fact I believe UK and France are the only two countries in Western Europe that still use majoritarian systems while in the EU, Hungary and Lithuania use hybrid systems, but of the 28 member states, those four are the only ones that don't use some form of PR. 

The bonus seats awarded to the largest party in Greece is anything but PR. It is clearly a hybrid between PR and FPTP(on the national scale.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good point and Italy also uses this too, so I guess out of the 28 member states (soon to be 27), 2 use Majoritarian systems (UK and France), four use hybrid (Greece, Hungary, Italy, and Lithuania), and the remaining 22 use some form of PR.  Most are List PR as only Germany and Romania use MMP, only Ireland and Malta use STV, while only Netherlands uses pure PR.

[Poirot]

Hatman sees in the future... a journalist from Le Soleil newspaper has an article on electoral reform.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/un-scrutin-proportionnel-pourrait-mener-a-plus-de-sieges-4d1d00776d2514a4e50e50d9837f91d7

Opposition parties agree on the principle of proportional but need to have a consensus on the precise formula. They have a report from the organization pushing for electoral reform. It suggests a mixed proportional sytem with national compensantion and regional distribution. There could be a few more seats than the current 125.

People would cast two votes. One for a candidate in the riding and one for a party. 75 candidates elected in constituencies and about 50 elected from regional list made by parties based on the entire Quebec vote share. There would be eight regions for compensation. It suggests a treshold of 2% to be in the Assembly financial incentives based on the number of women elected, measures so candidates of women, visible minorities and immigrants reflects their proportion in each region, and submit a law for reform within 90 days after the next election.       

[Tintrlvr]

Has there ever been demand for electoral reform in Quebec?

Last year all opposition parties have agreed on the idea of a mixed member proportional sytem based on regions. I don't know if they are all very committed to it of if they would agree on the details of the system.

Recently Legault said he was for a mixed proportional system. I guess the three opposition parties are still for it.

Seems bizarre that the PQ is all for electoral reform when FPTP is basically the party's only chance of ever forming government (although I suppose the spoiler effect the QS is having might change the calculus a bit). Also seems strange that the PLQ is in favor of FPTP when it is clearly the party hurt by far the most by FPTP due to its extremely heavy vote concentration in the west of Montreal.

[mileslunn]

I suspect PR will come to a number of provinces, I think the groups demanding it unlike a decade ago are better organized and there is also more support amongst millennials.  Still whether it goes nation wide or not will depend on how well it works.  I think the biggest problem today is political polarization is much worse than it was in the past so finding consensus and getting parties to cooperate won't be easy due to how strong tribalism is.  In Europe they have a long history of PR whereas we do not.  Never mind it seems the right is more right wing than in the past while left more left wing and the centre hollowing out.  Also in Europe stability has been less so in recent elections as you are seeing greater political fragmentation.

Had it been implemented many years ago it would probably would have worked then, but with most going to their political echo chambers and each side seeming to dislike the other I am quite skeptical it can work in the current political climate.  Likewise those assuming it would help their party should be careful for what they wish for as parties would behave differently and voters would vote differently.  In the last decade, the right has done better in Europe than Canada despite the fact most use PR and social democratic parties throughout Europe are now in crisis.  Off course that could be a unique phenomenon we don't have to worry about but nonetheless it does point to be careful what you wish for.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet has a new poll. Done April 7-9 with automated telephone interviews.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-tied-with-caq-overall-but-trail-in-every-region-except-the-island-of-montreal/

The decided and leaning numbers (they are giving decimals but I will round numbers):

CAQ 30%
OLQ 30%
PQ 16%
QS 12%
Conservateur 4%
NDPQ 4%
Other 4%

Franco: CAQ 33%, PLQ 25%, PQ 18%,  QS 14%, Con 3.5%, ONDP 3.4%
Non-franco: PLQ 62%, Con 9.5%, NDPQ 8.6%, CAQ 8%, PQ 4%, QS 1%, Other 7%

age 18-34: CAQ 32, PLQ 30

Opinion on the last budget: Very good 10, Good 29, Bad 23, Very bad 12, Not sure 26
Budget makes 17.7% more likely to vote PLQ, 46% no effect, 23% less likely, 13% not sure  

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman sees in the future... a journalist from Le Soleil newspaper has an article on electoral reform.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/un-scrutin-proportionnel-pourrait-mener-a-plus-de-sieges-4d1d00776d2514a4e50e50d9837f91d7

Opposition parties agree on the principle of proportional but need to have a consensus on the precise formula. They have a report from the organization pushing for electoral reform. It suggests a mixed proportional sytem with national compensantion and regional distribution. There could be a few more seats than the current 125.

People would cast two votes. One for a candidate in the riding and one for a party. 75 candidates elected in constituencies and about 50 elected from regional list made by parties based on the entire Quebec vote share. There would be eight regions for compensation. It suggests a treshold of 2% to be in the Assembly financial incentives based on the number of women elected, measures so candidates of women, visible minorities and immigrants reflects their proportion in each region, and submit a law for reform within 90 days after the next election.       

If they make it 78 seats, they could just use the federal riding map like we do in Ontario.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't think the French system is worse, as in theory it should mean the winner should have the majority support of the electorate (though if the top 2 candidates received fewer than 50% of the vote, this is not the case).

That's exactly why I think it's worse. It's even less proportional than FPTP. Majoritarian votes exclude unpopular ideological minorities even more so than FPTP and rewards the inoffensive with larger seat counts. En Marche! got a majority off of 28% of the first round vote last year. I don't think that's remotely fair. FPTP at least allows an outlet so long as the unpopular group can concentrate their vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think the French system is worse, as in theory it should mean the winner should have the majority support of the electorate (though if the top 2 candidates received fewer than 50% of the vote, this is not the case).

That's exactly why I think it's worse. It's even less proportional than FPTP. Majoritarian votes exclude unpopular ideological minorities even more so than FPTP and rewards the inoffensive with larger seat counts. En Marche! got a majority off of 28% of the first round vote last year. I don't think that's remotely fair. FPTP at least allows an outlet so long as the unpopular group can concentrate their vote.

Oh, I see what you mean. Yeah, I agree. The Liberals would probably have a super majority if we had that system federally (this is why Trudeau supports AV). I don't think it would skew things as badly in Quebec provincial politics though.

[mileslunn]

I don't think the French system is worse, as in theory it should mean the winner should have the majority support of the electorate (though if the top 2 candidates received fewer than 50% of the vote, this is not the case).

That's exactly why I think it's worse. It's even less proportional than FPTP. Majoritarian votes exclude unpopular ideological minorities even more so than FPTP and rewards the inoffensive with larger seat counts. En Marche! got a majority off of 28% of the first round vote last year. I don't think that's remotely fair. FPTP at least allows an outlet so long as the unpopular group can concentrate their vote.

Oh, I see what you mean. Yeah, I agree. The Liberals would probably have a super majority if we had that system federally (this is why Trudeau supports AV). I don't think it would skew things as badly in Quebec provincial politics though.

True although in the long-run it might bite the Liberals as it would mean they would probably be in power for a long time and when people finally did get fed up they would fall to third place.  If AV was used in Ontario, the Ontario Liberals would almost certainly be on their way to third place as they don't have a lot of second choices even though ironically in 2014 Wynne would have won a bigger landslide so over the long-run it balances out although not as parties necessarily think.  I also think if AV were used in Ontario, the PCs would have chosen Elliott not Ford as they know she can pick up more second choices than he can and someone like Michael Chong or Lisa Raitt would have done better in the Conservative leadership race since they would need someone like that to have a hope in hell.  Likewise the NDP in Ontario might have taken a more centrist position than they have as most soft PC supporters won't go NDP, but if the NDP were more centrist they might get many second PC choices.

[MAINEiac4434]

I really hope Fortin wins his seat - I'd love for a social democratic federalist party to rise in Quebec. I've always supported the Quebec Liberals because I oppose souveranism.

[StateBoiler]

Makes you wonder what campaigning will look like when millennials are the older generation.

By that time, the notion of journalism being a honorable endeavor would be dead for years thanks to social media coming to the fore when it comes to journalism, and everyone recognize it for devolving into 19th century journalistic practices where the writers all had known political biases and were sometimes to most of the time inaccurate.

[JG]

I really hope Fortin wins his seat - I'd love for a social democratic federalist party to rise in Quebec. I've always supported the Quebec Liberals because I oppose souveranism.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't think the French system is worse, as in theory it should mean the winner should have the majority support of the electorate (though if the top 2 candidates received fewer than 50% of the vote, this is not the case).

That's exactly why I think it's worse. It's even less proportional than FPTP. Majoritarian votes exclude unpopular ideological minorities even more so than FPTP and rewards the inoffensive with larger seat counts. En Marche! got a majority off of 28% of the first round vote last year. I don't think that's remotely fair. FPTP at least allows an outlet so long as the unpopular group can concentrate their vote.

Oh, I see what you mean. Yeah, I agree. The Liberals would probably have a super majority if we had that system federally (this is why Trudeau supports AV). I don't think it would skew things as badly in Quebec provincial politics though.

Do you (or anyone else) have any ideas what a two round system would look like in Quebec? I assume Anglophone voters would vote Anyone But PQ in the 2nd round, but that really only affects the few seats where Anglos are a significant portion of the vote but not enough to move the Liberals out of 3rd place. I have no idea what Francophone 2nd votes would look like.