Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Barnes]

Here is the CBC's interactive results page for tonight: http://www.cbc.ca/includes/provincialelections/albertavotes2015/dashboard/

Should be up and running at 8:00 PM MT.

[Phony Moderate]

Meh, still a 57.4% chance of a PC majority.

[Ebsy]

Meh, still a 57.4% chance of a PC majority.

Kay.

[136or142]

Teagan Goddard of the politicalwire website recently wrote an article where he said the biggest problem with the political media was their closeness with politicians.  I wouldn't even put that among the top five problems.  The biggest problems by far are :

1.Herd journalism

2.The assumption that people are stupid and can't follow complex issues which leads most mainstream journalists to follow the 'horse race' and not report much on the issues.  Or, it could be just that the journalists themselves are indeed stupid.

3.The desire for sensationalism which we see play out with the alleged Hillary Rodham Clinton scandal over the Clinton Foundation while the same media practically ignores that nearly every serious Republican Presidential candidate has at least 1 billionaire backer.

In regards to the Alberta election, this has played out by the media's fascination with the alleged number of NDP candidates who are university students and that some of them are likely to win.  In reality, only around 10% of the NDP's candidates are university students (and university students who have been elected in surprise elections in the past for the NDP provincially in Ontario and Federally in Quebec have pretty much all turned out to be decent politicians) and at least a couple of them are adult students who have returned to school.

By my count these are the only university students out of 87 candidates:
1.Josalyne Head, Bonnyville-Cold Lake, Anthropology Student
2.Lac La Biche-St Paul, Catherine Harder, Recently Graduated Music Student/NPO Fundraiser
3.Thomas Dang, Edmonton South West, Hons Computer Science Student
4.Trevor Horne, Spruce Grove-St. Albert, Trevor Horne, Political Science Student/Customer Service Representative, AYNDP Policy Chair
5.Katherine Swampy, Drayton Valley-Devon, Recently Graduated Economics Student
6.Hannah Schlamp, Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, Spanish and Political Science Student
7.Estefania Cortes-Vargas, Strathcona-Sherwood Park, Adult Social Work Student/Educational Assistant
8.Deborah Drover, Calgary-Bar, Sociology Student
9.Aaron Haugen, Adult Digital Communication and Media Diploma Student, Former Truck Driver
10.Leslie Mahoney, Highwood, Psychology Student
11.Aileen Burke, Recent Political Science Graduate/Shoppers Home Health Care Territory Manager.

This makes a grand total of nine youth university students out of 87 candidates, including three that are recent graduates.

These are the  primary occupations of NDP candidates
1.Educators (anything from a yoga teacher to an acting college president): 14
2.Union Officials: 9
3.Managers: 8
4.Lawyers: 4
5.Psychologists: 3
6.Civil Servants: 3

20 candidates have been educators at some time, including two of the MLAs and another is a 'career coach' whatever that is. 6 candidates are trained social workers, 26 candidates have been or are union activists and at least 15 candidates have some science training.

[Hatman 🍁]

My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/05/final-alberta-election-projection-ndp.html

[Ebsy]

My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/05/final-alberta-election-projection-ndp.html

Quite the shift in your projection.

[Hatman 🍁]

My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/05/final-alberta-election-projection-ndp.html

Quite the shift in your projection.

I think I'm fully convinced at this point. But you'll note I've predicted a worse showing for the NDP/better showing for the Tories than anyone else.

[MaxQue]

My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/05/final-alberta-election-projection-ndp.html

Quite the shift in your projection.

I think I'm fully convinced at this point. But you'll note I've predicted a worse showing for the NDP/better showing for the Tories than anyone else.

Don't you think than 89% for NDP in former leader Mason seat and 94% for NDP in Notley seat is a bit too much?

[Hatman 🍁]

My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/05/final-alberta-election-projection-ndp.html

Quite the shift in your projection.

I think I'm fully convinced at this point. But you'll note I've predicted a worse showing for the NDP/better showing for the Tories than anyone else.

Don't you think than 89% for NDP in former leader Mason seat and 94% for NDP in Notley seat is a bit too much?

Probably, but that's how the model works, unfortunately. Now if you reduce those numbers across the board, it would probably be enough to have the NDP sweep all of Edmonton.

[Hatman 🍁]

Turns out Albertans are left wing on most things: http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/features/vote-compass-albertans-on-the-issues-1.3061737

Except abotion, welfare and oil

[Boston Bread]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

[Lief 🗽]

Will there be an exit poll?

[MaxQue]

Will there be an exit poll?

No, it's Canada. There is never, ever exit polls.

[RogueBeaver]

No exit polls here.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

[MaxQue]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

Yeah, reminds me of that district in Illinois! There is another weird district in Calgary, Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill. I don't understand why some of the districts are so strangely shaped. 

[MaxQue]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

Yeah, reminds me of that district in Illinois! There is another weird district in Calgary, Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill. I don't understand why some of the districts are so strangely shaped.  

I suspect it's to split future neighbourhoods between a few ridings, instead of all dumping them in the same one which would quickly become overpopulated. The northern half of Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill is pretty much empty.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

Yeah, reminds me of that district in Illinois! There is another weird district in Calgary, Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill. I don't understand why some of the districts are so strangely shaped.  

I suspect it's to split future neighbourhoods between a few ridings, instead of all dumping them in the same one which would quickly become overpopulated. The northern half of Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill is pretty much empty.

Yeah, I think they did in the federal redistribution. Still weird though.

And some Alberta riding names bug me. I mean it is awesome that there is a riding named for Rachel Notley's father, but appending "Notley" to the end of a riding name is pretty dumb (Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley).  Would be cool if they won that riding tonight, though.

[MaxQue]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

Yeah, reminds me of that district in Illinois! There is another weird district in Calgary, Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill. I don't understand why some of the districts are so strangely shaped.  

I suspect it's to split future neighbourhoods between a few ridings, instead of all dumping them in the same one which would quickly become overpopulated. The northern half of Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill is pretty much empty.

Yeah, I think they did in the federal redistribution. Still weird though.

And some Alberta riding names bug me. I mean it is awesome that there is a riding named for Rachel Notley's father, but appending "Notley" to the end of a riding name is pretty dumb (Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley).  Would be cool if they won that riding tonight, though.

Well, some ridings are made of a lot of small neighbourhoods, so finding a name fitting for all the riding is complicated, so they began naming them for politicians associated to the area.

After they decided to name Edmonton-Decore for former Liberal leader and former mayor Decore, some NDPers started a petition to get a riding named after one of their former too, like PC and Liberals. That was the solution found (it was his riding).

[Hatman 🍁]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

Yeah, reminds me of that district in Illinois! There is another weird district in Calgary, Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill. I don't understand why some of the districts are so strangely shaped.  

I suspect it's to split future neighbourhoods between a few ridings, instead of all dumping them in the same one which would quickly become overpopulated. The northern half of Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill is pretty much empty.

Yeah, I think they did in the federal redistribution. Still weird though.

And some Alberta riding names bug me. I mean it is awesome that there is a riding named for Rachel Notley's father, but appending "Notley" to the end of a riding name is pretty dumb (Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley).  Would be cool if they won that riding tonight, though.

Well, some ridings are made of a lot of small neighbourhoods, so finding a name fitting for all the riding is complicated, so they began naming them for politicians associated to the area.

Yeah, I know. I bet I could still come up with some pretty decent names, though.

In some cases, an urban riding will just be named for one of its many neighbourhoods.

[2952-0-0]

Yikes. Some of these NDP results in inner-city Edmonton look like they were out of Uzbekistan or Belarus.

[MaxQue]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

Yeah, reminds me of that district in Illinois! There is another weird district in Calgary, Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill. I don't understand why some of the districts are so strangely shaped.  

I suspect it's to split future neighbourhoods between a few ridings, instead of all dumping them in the same one which would quickly become overpopulated. The northern half of Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill is pretty much empty.

Yeah, I think they did in the federal redistribution. Still weird though.

And some Alberta riding names bug me. I mean it is awesome that there is a riding named for Rachel Notley's father, but appending "Notley" to the end of a riding name is pretty dumb (Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley).  Would be cool if they won that riding tonight, though.

Well, some ridings are made of a lot of small neighbourhoods, so finding a name fitting for all the riding is complicated, so they began naming them for politicians associated to the area.

Yeah, I know. I bet I could still come up with some pretty decent names, though.

In some cases, an urban riding will just be named for one of its many neighbourhoods.

Yeah, but you know how people are parochial with riding names. I already saw an MP running on a plank of renaming his riding (well, adding more elements in the name). It gave ABJNE (which is better than they dreadful Nunavik-Eeyou, to be fair),

[RogueBeaver]

Don Braid says there is exit polling, but no results yet.

[ag]

Let the fun begin!