ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Former Kentuckian]

https://www.rollcall.com/video/cold_weather_doesn_t_bother_heitkamp

I've never related so much to a Senator before.

She's really endearing. Combined with her votes, it's easy to see why she has a 55% approval rating.

[Former Kentuckian]

Rick Berg is out as well

Guess they couldn't recruit a candidate with real teeth and now they're stuck with Campbell.

Maybe not real teeth, but real ads! swag

That's the next US senator from North Dakota.

[Former Kentuckian]

Thomas O'Neill, Air Force vet and anti-immigration candidate, is running

Former NDGOP chairman Gary Emineth is considering a run

And apparently, even Rob Port (!) doesn't quite share King Lear's optimism, to say the least

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I can't wait for Queen Heitkamp to devour Tom Campbell

[Former Kentuckian]

This looks to be becoming a trend with Wagner in Missouri and now Cramer.

It's their egos. The current candidates are crap, so they think of themselves as the Republicans' saviors that could flip things around if they jumped in.

[Former Kentuckian]

Manu Raju‏ @mkraju
After passing on a Senate bid, Kevin Cramer tells @deirdrewalshcnn of challenging Heitkamp in #ndsen: “We're just respectfully reconsidering right now; I'll have a decision by the end of the weekend."

9:08 PM - 13 Feb 2018

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/963595759223484417

What a great way to start a campaign against an incumbent with positive approvals in a year likely to be unfavorable to your party.

[Former Kentuckian]

Elaina Plott‏ @elainaplott
North Dakota scoops! Tom Campbell tells me that if Kevin Cramer runs, he'll likely drop out and run for Cramer's House seat instead. And oil tycoon Harold Hamm has offered to be Cramer's finance chair -

https://twitter.com/elainaplott/status/963854425818324992

lol I hope Ben Hanson uses all the dirt that's been uncovered about Campbell

[Former Kentuckian]

Elaina Plott‏ @elainaplott
North Dakota scoops! Tom Campbell tells me that if Kevin Cramer runs, he'll likely drop out and run for Cramer's House seat instead. And oil tycoon Harold Hamm has offered to be Cramer's finance chair -

https://twitter.com/elainaplott/status/963854425818324992

lol I hope Ben Hanson uses all the dirt that's been uncovered about Campbell

Speaking of Ben Hanson, he's raised $114,628 since announcing in August (as of Dec. 31) and 51% of it is from small donations (45.79% from large donations, 0.44% from PACs, and 2.80% from self-financing).

[Former Kentuckian]

Sabato moved ND from Lean D to Tossup because of this, lol.

Not unreasonable given that he's a congressman and we need to see a poll on this even if he's a flawed candidate.

My thoughts pretty much. He got more votes than Heitkamp did in 2012, after all.

12,000 more votes, what a monster. The Cramer vs Heitkamp 2012 comparisons hold no water anyway because those were such different elections with completely different circumstances.

[Former Kentuckian]

Heitkamp has no chance against a Republican with a proven record of winning that is well known and represented the entire state in Congress.

Again, more workers have moved there since then. And Berg was a disaster campaign-wise and still just barely lost.

As someone already said, those workers you all keep talking about have left. "North Dakota workers" is going to become the new "rain in Virginia"

http://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-and-regional/north-dakota-drops-in-population-for-first-time-in-years/article_b945a779-4285-5f3d-9f58-b333b64678e6.html

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-northdakota-bust/

https://www.npr.org/2017/11/10/563378654/how-the-boom-bust-oil-cycle-is-playing-out-in-north-dakota

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-dakota/articles/2017-05-30/oil-patch-cities-in-north-dakota-see-population-declines

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Source: http://www.minotdailynews.com/news/local-news/2017/05/population-contracts/

[Former Kentuckian]

Heitkamp DOA: http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/kevin-cramer-ahead-heitkamp

It's an internal poll for an election half a year away, and the internal has Cramer up by only five points.

[Former Kentuckian]

Heitkamp DOA: http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/kevin-cramer-ahead-heitkamp

It's an internal poll for an election half a year away, and the internal has Cramer up by only five points.

Oh no, you don't get to pull that card. We have polls in Colorado showing Gardner slightly down almost 3 years out and you guys pronounce him dead. One Democratic internal shows McCaskill up in the margin of error and Hawley is a goner. Don't give me that selective crap.

It's a Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee poll. Everyone is pretty much just joking about Gardner right now because the focus is November.  Hawley's campaign is a mess but every thread on here has mentioned that McCaskill is in for a fight.

[Former Kentuckian]

Heitkamp is playing this game so well.

[Former Kentuckian]

In a wave election (which is what everyone is assuming 2018 will be), the winning party tends to win virtually all the competitive/lean races. This happened in 2014 and 2016, and Heitkamp is way too strong to lose to Cramer in such a pro-Democratic environment in such a incumbent-friendly state. I think this race will start trending away from Republicans around Labor Day, with Heitkamp wrapping it up after the first debate. Granted, I have Republicans winning IN, MO and TN right now, but I’m not sure about those states (Democrats would win TN and MO if the election were held today).

If the 2017 elections (and 2018 special elections) are any indication, any wave in 2018 is only conditional: Democrats will 'wave' in urban and metropolitan areas, but not in rural areas. Since North Dakota is not a metropolitan state, it may not be affected by any wave and may even trend more R. This is a far more Republican state than even the one Mitt Romney carried in 2012, when Heitkamp was elected. Obama got 38% of the vote then, but Hillary only got 27% of the vote. 1 in 4 of the Democratic voters who helped Heitkamp to her original election simply don't exist any more.

Haven't we been seeing state legislative and other elections having swings in rural areas? For example in my state, Democrat Kelly Smith lost in her special election in a rural area but saw a swing in her direction. Also, let's not pretend that North Dakota is one giant field and everyone lives miles apart. Yeah, it's rural but it does have urban areas where a significant amount of the population lives and these were where Heidi did so well last time. Fargo alone holds nearly 20% of the state's population while its county (Cass County) holds nearly a quarter of the population. Burleigh County, home of Bismarck, has nearly 100,000 people in a state that only has 700,000.

[Former Kentuckian]

Incredible how Americans pronounce "Heidi Heitkamp" ...

Just watched one of her ads and you guys pronounce it "Hey-dee Heyd-kemp" instead of "High-dee Hight-kump" ?

Just depends on the regional accents here. 

[Former Kentuckian]

Apparently Heitkamp's internals show her behind as well. She's probably going to be triaged soon.

I doubt she cares. She was triaged in 2012 too.

She also has a boatload of cash on her own even without outside money or support. And North Dakota isn't Texas, California, or New York, so it's not like it's ridiculously expensive.

[Former Kentuckian]

Why is she called "Heidi" anyway ?

Her real name is Mary Kathryn Heitkamp.

Is there any particular reason for Heidi ? Does she love Swiss/Austrian alpine meadows or cows ?



(Btw, the guy in the background is Kevin Cramer ...)

Heidi is a grade school nickname: http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/2185317-working-class-roots-large-family-shaped-future-senator

[Former Kentuckian]

AARP polled North Dakotans over 50:

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Source: https://states.aarp.org/nd-2018-election-poll/

[Former Kentuckian]

Heitkamp has the endorsement of North Dakota United, the union for public workers and educators. I don't know how far union endorsements go in North Dakota, but she now has that on top of her endorsement from the Farmers Union

[Former Kentuckian]

Amy Klobuchar made an appearance in North Dakota on behalf of Heitkamp, and the two did some press rounds together:

http://www.wday.com/news/government-and-politics/4500366-evening-heitkamp-and-klobuchar-talking-kavanaugh-farm-bill-and

https://www.kvrr.com/2018/09/15/sens-heitkamp-and-klobuchar-attend-annual-dem-npl-burdick-dinner/

[Former Kentuckian]

Amy Klobuchar made an appearance in North Dakota on behalf of Heitkamp, and the two did some press rounds together:

http://www.wday.com/news/government-and-politics/4500366-evening-heitkamp-and-klobuchar-talking-kavanaugh-farm-bill-and

https://www.kvrr.com/2018/09/15/sens-heitkamp-and-klobuchar-attend-annual-dem-npl-burdick-dinner/

Klobuchar's mega-coattails should be enough to save Heitkamp.

lol I wish!

[Former Kentuckian]

This is the second time Cramer has dismissed the allegations against Kavanaugh, and this time he added that it wouldn't be disqualifying "even if" they were true.

[Former Kentuckian]

Cramer continues to Aiken himself:

https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1044747670617829376

Keep talking, Cramer! Keep talking!

[Former Kentuckian]

There's a large Native American presence in the Dakotas, right?

Yes, Native Americans make up about 5% of the population.

[Former Kentuckian]

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Source: https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5baaed9fe4b07dc0b87ee541/amp

[Former Kentuckian]

I guess I need to ignore North Dakota threads until election day. You all are stressing me out.