Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal (user search)
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Author Topic: Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal  (Read 131965 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #100 on: October 29, 2018, 11:34:35 PM »
The turnout in the rurals look closer to the end of last week, rather than the crazy numbers at the beginning of the week.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #101 on: October 30, 2018, 07:21:42 AM »
Democrats have about a 27,802 lead in Clark. They have averaged a 2,780 lead per day (not counting yesterday's absentees). If Democrats get their average for the last 4 days, they can get their lead up to 38,923. Generally there is a late surge for Democrats at the end of the week, so 40,000 is not out of the question.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #102 on: October 30, 2018, 08:25:08 AM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #103 on: October 30, 2018, 08:31:00 AM »
Quote from: Vox Populi on October 30, 2018, 08:27:46 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 30, 2018, 08:25:08 AM


Yeah, if there is one state I am NOT getting my hopes up based on early voting, it's Florida. I still have trauma from 2016.

Yeah, unlike other states with a big early vote, in Florida there will still be a substantial election day vote that will determine the election.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #104 on: October 30, 2018, 09:24:25 AM »
Ralston now thinks that 40,000 Clark County firewall is possible, 35,000 is almost certain.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #105 on: October 30, 2018, 11:03:36 AM »
Probably Clark County absentees:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #106 on: October 30, 2018, 11:32:44 AM »
Republicans are cannibalizing their support in North Carolina too:



Source
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Gass3268
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« Reply #107 on: October 30, 2018, 12:18:32 PM »
Quote from: Mehmentum on October 30, 2018, 11:48:00 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 30, 2018, 11:32:44 AM
Republicans are cannibalizing their support in North Carolina too:



Source
Uh, that chart shows that exactly the same % of Democrat and Republican early voters voted in 2014.

3% more Republicans who voted on election day are voting early.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #108 on: October 30, 2018, 07:41:50 PM »
Arizona down to R+10:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #109 on: October 30, 2018, 09:26:13 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on October 30, 2018, 09:21:02 PM
Eh, those AZ numbers still suck.  Wasn't the GOP lead in EV in the low-single digits before Election Day (where Trump still eked out a 4% victory)?!

It's dropped 1% in two days.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #110 on: October 31, 2018, 08:15:06 AM »
Not sure how these numbers compare to the past, but that NC-02 is a little eye popping.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #111 on: October 31, 2018, 08:48:13 AM »
Quote from: KingSweden on October 31, 2018, 08:35:01 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 31, 2018, 08:15:06 AM
Not sure how these numbers compare to the past, but that NC-02 is a little eye popping.



Usual caveats about Demosaurs in the South, but damn

I asked the person who comes up with these charts and it looks like he/she is going to do a some comparisons to past years later this week.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #112 on: October 31, 2018, 09:06:13 AM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #113 on: October 31, 2018, 01:58:07 PM »
Huge day yesterday in Arizona for Democrats, Republican advantage dropped almost a full point:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #114 on: October 31, 2018, 02:45:47 PM »
Quote from: Pandaguineapig on October 31, 2018, 02:43:27 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on October 31, 2018, 02:32:24 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 31, 2018, 01:58:07 PM
Huge day yesterday in Arizona for Democrats, Republican advantage dropped almost a full point:




Not that it is the best comparison, but does anyone remember what the final EV margin for the GOP was in 2016?
Low single digits but as you said, not an awesome comparison

I think it was like 3.5
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Gass3268
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« Reply #115 on: October 31, 2018, 08:24:42 PM »
What’s the district in Washington with two Democrats?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #116 on: October 31, 2018, 10:06:09 PM »

I wonder if there will be a delay because of Halloween?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #117 on: November 01, 2018, 02:25:16 PM »
Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #118 on: November 01, 2018, 03:12:22 PM »
Quote from: Xing on November 01, 2018, 03:08:12 PM
While Ralston is still calling NV-SEN and NV-GOV Toss-Ups, he is saying that if Heller isn't winning Independents, he might be done for. If Clark turnout is strong today and tomorrow, I'm pretty sure he'll predict that Rosen and Sisolak will win, though he'll probably say that it'll be narrow.

It's funny, he has NV-04 as Likely D, while our buddy Sean T at RCP has it as a Toss Up due to reasons.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #119 on: November 01, 2018, 08:17:11 PM »
Quote from: Xing on November 01, 2018, 08:12:37 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 01, 2018, 08:07:11 PM
I want Democrats to put this race away. They are clearly not doing that. We'll have to rely on the independents to actually win this, and I don't want to bet on independents.

Sorry, but there's always going to be some uncertainty. Democrats are always going to need some Independents, just like Republicans need some (Republicans need to win more of them in Nevada than Democrats.) If you want elections to be determined only by intelligent, rational people, I suggest looking at other countries.

This is America dammit!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #120 on: November 01, 2018, 10:37:29 PM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #121 on: November 02, 2018, 07:22:02 AM »
THIS IS NOT EARLY VOTE NUMBERS!!!

Here are new New York State Board of Elections stats by Congressional Districts (from pre-primary (April) to pre-election):
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Gass3268
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« Reply #122 on: November 02, 2018, 08:36:00 AM »
Democrats won early vote yesterday in Florida, took almost a half a point off the Republican lead:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #123 on: November 02, 2018, 09:17:30 AM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on November 02, 2018, 09:10:25 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 02, 2018, 08:36:00 AM
Democrats won early vote yesterday in Florida, took almost a half a point off the Republican lead:



With the big, blue counties continuing early vote over the weekend, this gap may get under a point...impressive in a midterm

Everyone is open on Saturday, but Sunday is optional.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #124 on: November 02, 2018, 01:09:06 PM »
Democrats gain another 0.7 points in Arizona:
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