AL - Safe R. Ivey will win every single Democratic vote in the state, due to her courage in acknowledging Moore was a pedophile but still voting for him anyway.
AK - Safe D. Walker and Dunleavy will split the right wing vote, allowing Begich to win easily. also imo dunleavy is an extremely weak candidate for not having name recognition as high as an incumbent governor and a former senator imo
AZ - Likely D. Queen of AZ's coattails will drag down Ducey. I'm only keeping it at likely D rather than safe in case there's an upset and Sinema wins by a mere 50 points rather than 90 points or so.
AR - Toss Up. Hutchinson is a strong candidate, but RINO Tom told me this is still a Democratic state at heart, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
CA - Safe R. Newsom somehow only won the jungle primary by single digits despite Cox's low name recognition. Orange County, the Republican bastion, is swinging hard back to the GOP. And Newsom will surely get #metoo'd any day now.
CO - Safe D. Colorado is the new California.
CT - Safe R.
DAN.MALLOY.FL - Safe D. Nelson was an astronaut.
GA - Likely D. 26 year old upscale yuppies in Forsyth County are ready to embrace black women. But out of an abundance of caution I'm keeping it as likely rather than safe because of that random guy in GA-14 who got into a drunk driving scandal, which will surely hurt Abrams.
HI - Lean R. Ige had an underwhelming primary win, and 37 year old mixed race white collar Mauians will remember his missile gaffe in November. Hirono currently being in the fight of her life due to Reuters polls isn't doing Ige any favors either.
ID - Safe D. Paulette Jordan is very attractive, and this will work to her advantage in attracting 42 year old sex deprived white working class married Coeur d'Alene males . Also, my sources in the Little campaign say that he is a pedophile.
IL - Toss Up. Two way race between Pritzker and McCann, who is making major inroads among the black and millennial vote, as he so eloquently pointed out in his polling memo. Rauner will get 0% because I dislike him. Also, Illinois is swinging hard right because it is in the Midwest, so there's no more room for moderate heroes left.
IA - Safe R. Iowa will never vote for any Democrat ever again after how far it swung to Trump.
KS - Likely D. Kobach and Orman will split the far right Tea Party Trumpist alt-right white supremacist Nazi vote, but will it be enough for Kelly to sneak by? Johnson County RINOs will decide.
ME - Likely R. Dems nominated a woman, and everyone knows women can't be #populists.
MD - Super Safe R. Hogan will win every single county in the state. He'd even win DC if it was a part of Maryland. Everyone knows if you lead by double digits in the summer before the election it means you're inevitable. Just ask Rep. Anthony Brown, who will be defeated yet again by Hogan's coattails. Also, Chelsea Manning reverse coattails will hurt Jealous.
MA - Super Safe R, Charlie Baker (<3333333333333) will win 105% of the vote, and cause every elected Democrat in the state to lose in the process.
MI - Safe R. Schuette will also win 90% of the black vote due to John James goodwill. Also, Whitmer is a woman and therefore will lose Michigan because Hillary lost Michigan. imo would've been at least a toss up if dems had a stronger candidate like el sayed or thanedar imo.
MN - Safe D. Minnesota was ready to install Tim Pawlenty in a landslide, but fringe far right GOP primary voters had other plans. Now they will vote Democrat in a massive landslide to punish the GOP for depriving them of eight more years of demigod Tim Pawlenty.
NE - Lean R. Ricketts may have been vulnerable due to losing to Ben Nelson in 2006, but toxic Roy Moore tier candidates like Jane Raybould and Kara Eastman will help him. On top of that, I hear the GOP just ran a web only Pelosi ad against Krist. This might move to likely R after that.
NV - Super Safe R. The Laxalt family name is beloved in Nevada. And that's without even getting into Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller's coattails. And of course Nevada is a titanium R state that only voted D in 2016 because of illegals anyway.
NH - Likely R. I had this at lean D due to all the angry women and such, but then Trump tweeted that Maxine Waters is the leader of the Democratic Party, which will surely devastate Molly Kelly's campaign.
NM - Safe R. Michelle Lujan Grisham, yet another Democratic recruiting failure. She couldn't even lead by 20 points in strong candidate Steve Pearce's internals. What a a joke. On top of that, Gary Johnson has just sealed her fate.
NY - Safe R. Cuomo is corrupt, and New York HATES corruption.
OH - Toss Up. Can Brown's #populism
coattails drag Cordray over the finish line? 53 year old blue collar manufacturing white male Cleveland Browns fans in Mahoning County are up for grabs in this one. It's going to be a real barn burner.
OK - Super Safe D. Some poll said Mary Fallin was unpopular, and it's not like unpopular politicians are EVER re-elected in very partisan states. Just ask Mary Fallin, Sam Brownback, Dan Malloy, and Mitch McConnell. also imo kevin stitt weak candidate imo. The only question in this race is if the GOP can win the Panhandle.
OR - Lean R. RINOs rejoice, Kate Brown is deeply vulnerable to her RINO opponent. Gravis and that poll that said Trump won win Oregon told me so. But don't count your chickens before they hatch. It's possible enough Portland Antifa members throw eggs at all the Buehler supporters trying to vote to give her a chance at pulling it out in November.
PA - Safe R. Trump won PA, and Wolf only won because of Penn State to begin with.
RI - Likely R. The state swung to Trump in 2016, and Malloy's reverse megacoattails will drag down Raimondo even though he's not on the ballot. Dan Malloy is so bad that he has spawned phantom coattails.
SC - Lean D. Haley only narrowly won in 2010, so it stands to reason that Democrats will win this time. Also, Mark Sanford's loss will depress turnout among 32 year old church going Spatanburg County married men that are currently having affairs.
SD - Lean D. Retail politics and tariffs. Noem is a weak candidate, and also the state is very elastic.
TN - Toss Up. Bredesen will help Dean, but his fate is in the hands of Williamson County RINOs. imo diane black would've made it safe d imo.
TX - Safe R. Valdez is a weak candidate, which is why Abbott will win, not because he has a good approval rating in a Republican state. imo andrew white would've made it at least a toss up imo. Valdez is so bad that she can't even benefit from Beautiful Beto's coattails. Sad!
VT - Super Safe R. Vermont is a Republican state at heart as RINO Tom says, so of course they will re-elect their RINO governor.
WI - Super Safe D. No Republican will be winning any election in the state of Wisconsin within the next 100 years after the massive thrashing last night. Walker will be lucky to win Waukesha County, and if he does it would probably be solely due to fraud.
WY - Likely D. Dave Freudenthal won in 2006.
