State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1374523434055520262?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.

Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.

Source on the 2.3 point R over-performance? There is a tracker that circulates on Twitter (I am struggling to find it right now but will edit this post when I do) that most recently showed a slight Democratic over-performance in fact.

Here is the link :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vf9-VFavJ3lyYsSrKX1ECuP5DyVlegDtG-UJLpQvh7s/edit#gid=702358838

[Frenchrepublican]

Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1382153366403448832?s=20

For now dem candidates running in special elections have underperformed Biden by 0.6 on average.

[Frenchrepublican]

Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

LOL, Biden won this district by 9 and Clinton still won it by 4 (yeah, it actually trended left), it's clearly not '' Trump territory ''.

Moreover the district you are talking about is not SD20 but SD22.

Concerning the special election it is very unlikely that the GOP will be able to win it, a Biden+9 district in a such area is probably safe/likely D and if the GOP is able to put it in the single digit it would be alreday pretty impressive.

[Frenchrepublican]

Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

LOL, Biden won this district by 9 and Clinton still won it by 4 (yeah, it actually trended left), it's clearly not '' Trump territory ''.

Moreover the district you are talking about is not SD20 but SD22.

Concerning the special election it is very unlikely that the GOP will be able to win it, a Biden+9 district in a such area is probably safe/likely D and if the GOP is able to put it in the single digit it would be alreday pretty impressive.

These are the types of places the GOP will want over performances in by now to have a good chance at nabbing some of these WWC seats.

It will be very possibly competitive, and writing off this district is not something I would advise.

I mean, Biden underperformed every statewide democratic candidates in northeastern PA and despite that he still won the seat by 9, there is no reason to expect the GOP to take this seat, especially considering how dem friendly it is downballot.