Would Kenosha have flipped if the Jacob Blake riots never happened?

[Tekken_Guy]

Would Kenosha County, WI have flipped to Biden had the riots after Jacob Blake's shooting never happened?

[Chips]

No.

[DaleCooper]

I do think that it would have. I'm convinced that Democrats, myself included, failed to realize how exhausted voters nationwide were with the endless rioting and in particular the endless leftwing justifications for the rioting.

[sting in the rafters]

Nah. Ultimately I think the effect of the police brutality and subsequent civil unrest were net neutral. It didn’t change many minds as much as it polarized/energized both bases even more.

[bagelman]

I do think that it would have. I'm convinced that Democrats, myself included, failed to realize how exhausted voters nationwide were with the endless rioting and in particular the endless leftwing justifications for the rioting.

It's not a sure thing, but I do remember reading about Trump signs popping up like weeds in the suburbs after the riots.

[lfromnj]

I do think that it would have. I'm convinced that Democrats, myself included, failed to realize how exhausted voters nationwide were with the endless rioting and in particular the endless leftwing justifications for the rioting.

9 recommendations + DaleCooper. So who's the 11h vote?

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1392824416149688323

 Good job though you got your nice jab in.

 I did have a general idea of this data a few months back although I am happy that Shor gave concrete proof in the form of statistical data.
It would have taken a 0.4 D swing. I don't think it seriously effected the state of Wisconsin but probably had a moderate effect in Kenosha itself. It seems as if college whites blamed the GOP overall while minorities/non college whites blamed Democrats.


Another factor is that it was closer to the election and way after Floyd. Right after the Floyd event BLM favorability shot up but by the end it collapsed back down. It was pretty clear though that Kenosha had a pretty weird swing for a mid-sized county in Wisconsin as basically every other medium sized county in Wisconsin swung Dem. There isn't anything extremely different about Kenosha compared to these counties besides the Jacob Blake stuff.

[Lord Admirale]

I do think that it would have. I'm convinced that Democrats, myself included, failed to realize how exhausted voters nationwide were with the endless rioting and in particular the endless leftwing justifications for the rioting.

I don't agree with it flipping but I agree with the sentiment. The Squad embracing an anti-police message didn't do Biden and the Democrats any favors in the suburbs.

[Hope For A New Era]

No. I don't think a single event changed anything. We're that locked. Notice how close the polls in late 2019 before the Democratic primaries were to the actual results?

[DaleCooper]

No. I don't think a single event changed anything. We're that locked. Notice how close the polls in late 2019 before the Democratic primaries were to the actual results?

I'll preface this by acknowledging that what I'm about to say is anecdotal, but I don't think that swing voters are a thing of the past. I know a lot of people that felt compelled to assess each candidate according to their own idiosyncratic values, and I know of several Democratic voters, including a couple Biden/Bacon voters, that went from being enthusiastic anti-Trump voters to reluctant Biden voters after the first month or so of riots. The endless destruction of public monuments was also a huge turnoff that sickened a lot of voters. The Jacob Blake rioting took place in a small community that, to my knowledge, hasn't seen any of this kind of violence in recent memory. It's not surprising to me at all that Democrats would lose ground here due to this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I mean, does anyone have a better explanation for just how out of sync it is for the region? It's the only county in southeastern Wisconsin to swing Trump and also the only one in the region when you include the neighboring parts of Illinois (with the exception of Cook County which was probably just a dead cat bounce ala San Francisco.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1392933556977119237?s=19