Cruz will be the nominee. Prove me wrong.

[Mr. Morden]

If after California and other early June states have voted, Trump is short of 1237 pledged delegates, but not by much, he could still end up with a delegate majority on the first ballot by picking up some of the unpledged delegates.  He doesn't have to win *all* of them.  In fact, he probably doesn't have to win a majority of them.  It depends on the exact numbers.

So, that's the question.  How many unpledged delegates will he need to pick up in order to win on the first ballot, and how many of them will be pre-disposed to supporting him?  Even if he's not their first choice, how many of them will be swayed by his "I got a plurality, so you have to nominate me or it's undemocratic" argument?  Many of them won't be swayed by that, some of them will.  I don't know what the number will be.

[Mr. Morden]

If Trump goes into the convention with say around 1150 delegates and Cruz with around 900 and they give the nomination to Cruz, wouldn't that cause anarchy and a meltdown at the convention?

Not if most of the delegates pledged to Trump are actually supporters of Cruz.