UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Hifly]

Harry Hayfield's prediction is clearly a joke. Don't take it so seriously.

[Hifly]

Bootle MP Joe Benton has given up trying to fight his constituency party, and has opted to retire. He is 81 years old and has held the seat since the second Bootle by-election of 1990. Given that Bootle is one of the safest seats in the country for any party no matter how safety is defined, expect a truly absurd number of applications.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

If they make it an AWS I think I will explode!

[Hifly]

Though it has never had a female MP.

Keep it quiet; don't excite them!

Although if they force it then I hope Claire Curtis-Thomas applies.

[Hifly]

Probably Kensington- Sir Malcolm Rifkind's seat.
Conservative landslide.

[Hifly]

For the record I'm voting SNP in the GE (while I have done at Holyrood, the Tories have got my GE votes in the past even though they count for nothing)

Which constituency do you live in?

I'm registered to vote in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.

Tom Greatrex will survive the SNP assault and sustain the Pro-Life caucus.

[Hifly]

Labour have put up probably the worst possible candidate they could have in Gordon.

What has he done?

[Hifly]

Here's the thing: there's a none too unreasonable chance that the greens will multiply their 2010 vote by more than six times and simultaneously lose their only seat.

FPTP, don't you love it !!

Yes! Exactly because of occasions like this

[Hifly]

OK... Here we go again...

Based also on an estimate of how many new voters there are for each seat.



SNP - 37
Lab - 21
Con - 2
Lib - 1

Seems more realistic.

I think this is still wrong.

[Hifly]

You'd think that a billionaire would be able to protect opinion polls, but obviously not. Anyone is easily able to access the poll results.

Nearly every poll shows swings of over 15% to the SNP, with most showing swings of over 20% - some over 25%.

Can you post the link?

[Hifly]

Notice that at the constituency level support for the Greens falls to low single digits

Uhh it's already on low single digits in the standard voting intention...

[Hifly]

At least there will be another chance to win back F&ST from Nationalist control.

It will also be interesting to see what damage Sinn Fein does to McDonnell's majority in Belfast South; DUP have an outside chance of gaining it.

[Hifly]

Will NI be another no change election all right like last time?

No