Dems in 2008: 12 Pickup Opportunities in Senate?

[Brittain33]

9) Mississippi (Wicker-Musgrove race)
12) Nebraska

So far, these are the only two races not to have had a reputable poll indicating the race is competitive.

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Not competitive.

[Brittain33]

I'm looking for a man who left his suitcase at the train station. Mr Briss. First name Hugh.

I'd rather ride with him than go whistling past the graveyard.

[Brittain33]

Democrats just don't win Senate races in North Carolina during Presidential years—and most of those "wins" have come with GOP candidates a lot more polarizing than Liddy Dole.

Has any Republican senator polled below a challenger in NC, or within 5 points, in an election year before? How were Helms-Gantt polling at this time in '96?

Historical patterns hold up until they don't, and it takes strong confidence to write off a poll showing the incumbent behind a challenger by one point several months before Election Day.

Also, I think the Obama effect on African-American turnout, so easily and wrongly hyped in other examples, is a genuine asset to Hagen when the white vote is not as polarized as it is elsewhere.

[Brittain33]

8.) Maine, possibly but I haven't seen any indication that this is getting closer.

Rasmussen has them at Collins 52%, Allen 42%.

You still have to favor Collins strongly here, but it's a sign of life.

[Brittain33]

Kos has a Wicker-Musgrove poll coming out the end of this week or next Monday.