AZ - Ducey +18 (Fox)

[Predictor]

Ducey - 55%
Garcia - 37%

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/arizona-poll-document-10-3

[ON Progressive]

I highly doubt there will be THAT many Ducey/Sinema voters, but this one does not look good at all.

[Politician]

Obvious junk, but Garcia sure was a massive flop. Lean R.

[Predictor]

Obvious junk, but Garcia sure was a massive flop. Lean R.

"Hurr I don't like the poll's results so it's junk even though it has solid methodology and a 'A' rating from 538"

[isoscelessquare]

Likely R at this point

[MT Treasurer]

Obvious junk, but Garcia sure was a massive flop. Lean R.

"Hurr I don't like the poll's results so it's junk even though it has solid methodology and a 'A' rating from 538"

Welcome to Atlas!

He has a point though, this margin is definitely hard to believe, but I’m ready to move this to Likely R.

[Skye]

Obvious junk, but Garcia sure was a massive flop. Lean R.

More 'outlier' than junk, tbh.

But yeah, I'm fairly close to moving it to Likely R.

[Young Conservative]

Based on the contacts I have in Arizona politics, this is entirely believable. Ducey is running a top notch campaign. Garcia is prone to gaffes and a poor ground game.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yeah, Ducey will probably win by about 10 points but these Fox polls seem to me way too rosy for Republicans.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Jesus. Does anyone know what type of field operation Garcia has?

[Predictor]

Jesus. Does anyone know what type of field operation Garcia has?

Apparently a pretty poor one.

[Virginiá]

To be fair, even if he had a top-notch operation, GOTV ops are generally not something polls would pick up (afaik). That is the kind of thing that would help a candidate over-perform on election day.

Anyway, Likely R.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jesus. Does anyone know what type of field operation Garcia has?

No, but it's been very obvious from the start that this was a low-priority race for national democrats and that Garcia was nothing more than wave insurance.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If Sinema is running 20 points ahead of Garcia, at least Dems have the Senate seat in the bag.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Senate race is where our energy should be focused. It's less of a Democratic c***tease.

[Zaybay]

What the hell happened?!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But Solid said this was Lean Democratic. Jan Brewer was in a similar situation as Ducey and she managed to win reelection in 2010.  GOPers rally effect at the end, and Jan Brewer was vulnerable too.

[NOVA Green]

Although this poll seems a bit of an outlier, the trend lines have been clearly moving in Ducey's favor since the end of the Teacher's Strike....

I do wonder if we're starting to see a lagging indicator from the recent Gubernatorial Debates, as well as increased focus on how to address public education funding?

I suspect that Garcia might be experiencing a two-way hit:

1.) Teacher's won a +20% pay increase by 2020, and Ducey appears to possibly be benefiting from this to some extent.

2.) Part of Garcia's funding model to pay for increased spending on education involves a significant tax increase on upper middle-class households, the very same population that has been swinging against the Republican Party over the past few election cycles in the 2016 Presidential Race, and also in the AZ CD-08 Special Election.

3.) This is ultimately part of the "inherent contradiction of the welfare state", where voters want increased services from the state, but also generally aren't crazy about tax raises to fund such services.

4.) Garcia, with his background in educational policy, might well be expected to be a favorite on this issue, but it appears that Ducey might be "one-upping" him and essentially neutralizing the issue by effectively running as the "Education Governor", and undermining what *should* in theory be an area where Garcia would have an edge.

Not sure this is exactly what's going on here, but fuel for thought at least.

https://www.azpm.org/p/home-articles-news/2018/9/25/137890-ducey-garcia-spar-on-education-economy/

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2018/09/07/education-funding-david-garcia-doug-ducey-invest-ed/1214326002/

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/01/arizona-governor-election-doug-ducey-david-garcia-talk-policy/1490567002/

https://www.npr.org/2018/08/27/641649941/3-ways-education-is-influencing-arizonas-midterms

[Xing]

Definitely an outlier, but yeah, Likely R it is.

[IceSpear]

Huh. I guess Ducey is inevitable after all, go figure. Who knew appointing a partisan hack to the Senate could boost your popularity so much? Then again, nobody ever accused American voters of being logical, sensible, rational, and reasonable. j/k the pundits and people on this forum do constantly, lol.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Huh. I guess Ducey is inevitable after all, go figure. Who knew appointing a partisan hack to the Senate could boost your popularity so much? Then again, nobody ever accused American voters of being logical, sensible, rational, and reasonable. j/k the pundits and people on this forum do constantly, lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jon Kyl has been in Senate for a long time. He isn't a maverick, but he has longevity, just like Murkowskis