Do minority groups in european nations vote as heavily for the liberal parties

[Matty]

there as they do in the United States?

[Heimdal]

I can only speak of the case in Norway. First of all it depends on where the immigrants are from. Immigrants from other parts of Europe (or the US) vote along the same lines as Norwegians. Non-western immigrants are clearly tilted towards the parties of the left. The Labour party and the Socialist party receive around 70 % of the non-western immigrant vote. To some extent that is a function of the fact that a lot of non-western immigrants are doing menial work, or being dependent on welfare.

There are some indications though that their voting patterns change when they reach a higher economic stratum. So doctors, lawyers, dentists and engineers with Pakistani background are more likely to vote for parties of the center-right, and to a large extent they do.

The only parties that doesn’t receive any of the non-western immigrant vote is the Agrarian party (SP), the Christian Democrats (KrF) and the Liberals (Venstre). Even the populists in FrP gets a larger share of the immigrant vote than Venstre and KrF, which is sort of ironic, since Venstre and KrF has a far more liberal immigration policy.

So the difference between Norway and the US (in this respect) is that non-western minority groups in Norway are more likely to vote for the center-right, depending on  their income, where they live and how educated they are. As far as I can tell the situation is quite different in the US.

[Franknburger]

As for Germany, it also differs by groups:

Jews have traditionally voted FDP, more recently also for the Greens and the Pirates.

Huguenots are traditionally voting for the CDU.

The Danish minority in Schleswig-Holstein has their own party (SSW) for local and regional elections. Nationally, they have traditionally been aligned with the SPD, more recently also Greens and Linke.

The Sorbian minority in Saxony leans CDU - Saxony PM Stanislaw Tillich has Sorbian background.

Eastern European immigrants have traditionally strongly favoured the CDU. They appear to gradually align with the German population, though, especially among those born in the Former Soviet Union, there is still some CDU lean.

Immigrants from former Yugoslavia appear to lean left, including considerable support to Die Linke.
 
Among South European immigrants, to the extent they have assumed German nationality, there appears to be a generational split. The older generation leans CDU, the younger generation rather towards SPD/ Greens (think Cubans in Florida)

Turkish immigrants lean SPD / Greens / Linke. The CDU has tried to  target the small-business Döner shop/ grocery store part of the ethnic Turkish electorate, but with little success (immigrant-bashing and refusing EU membership for Turkey isn't really helping here).

Naturalised Asians, especially the sizeable Iranian community, which is quite affluent, appear to lean CDU/ FDP.

Other non-European immigrants (Ghanaians are notable here) should lean towards the Greens.

Note that the gender gap applies here as well. The Greens are particularly strong with women under 45. Merkel has managed to revert the traditional gender gap, and the CDU is now across all age groups stronger with women than men. All other parties are stronger with men than with women.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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This seems to be more a matter of catholicism and the role of the CDU during the GDR in the catholic sorb area between Kamenz, Hoyerswerda and Bautzen, though.
Protestant Sorbs around Weißwasser and in Brandenburg seem to vote much like the Germans around them.

I would not call the Huguenots an distinguishable ethnic minority today. Politicians with French names are mostly liberal CDU types, of course.

[Heimdal]

Note that the gender gap applies here as well. The Greens are particularly strong with women under 45. Merkel has managed to revert the traditional gender gap, and the CDU is now across all age groups stronger with women than men. All other parties are stronger with men than with women.

That is interesting. In Tony Judt’s «Postwar» he described the rise of the Christian Democrats in Europe after 1945. Among other factors he pointed out that women as a whole were usually more religious than men, and that the Christian Democrats message of reconciliation, family values and stability resonated with them. I assume that was the case for the German CDU as well.

However, in most Western European countries today, women are more likely to vote for the parties on the left. Why do you think Merkels CDU fare better among female voters than other Centre-right parties?

Is it because of the fact that Merkel is a woman, or is it something about the CDU?

[Famous Mortimer]

I can only speak of the case in Norway. First of all it depends on where the immigrants are from. Immigrants from other parts of Europe (or the US) vote along the same lines as Norwegians. Non-western immigrants are clearly tilted towards the parties of the left. The Labour party and the Socialist party receive around 70 % of the non-western immigrant vote. To some extent that is a function of the fact that a lot of non-western immigrants are doing menial work, or being dependent on welfare.

There are some indications though that their voting patterns change when they reach a higher economic stratum. So doctors, lawyers, dentists and engineers with Pakistani background are more likely to vote for parties of the center-right, and to a large extent they do.

The only parties that doesn’t receive any of the non-western immigrant vote is the Agrarian party (SP), the Christian Democrats (KrF) and the Liberals (Venstre). Even the populists in FrP gets a larger share of the immigrant vote than Venstre and KrF, which is sort of ironic, since Venstre and KrF has a far more liberal immigration policy.

So the difference between Norway and the US (in this respect) is that non-western minority groups in Norway are more likely to vote for the center-right, depending on  their income, where they live and how educated they are. As far as I can tell the situation is quite different in the US.

That's not different from the US at all.

[Tender Branson]

Polls have shown that Austrian Turks vote about 40-50% SPÖ, 10-20% Greens and 10-20% ÖVP.

Former Yugoslavs and Eastern Europeans vote about equally SPÖ and ÖVP with even a good share voting FPÖ (Serbs).

So, yes for Turks and no for the Yugoslavs/Eastern Europeans.

Don't know how the German immigrants vote, who in recent years have become the largest foreigner group.

There are simply no studies ...

[Heimdal]

I can only speak of the case in Norway. First of all it depends on where the immigrants are from. Immigrants from other parts of Europe (or the US) vote along the same lines as Norwegians. Non-western immigrants are clearly tilted towards the parties of the left. The Labour party and the Socialist party receive around 70 % of the non-western immigrant vote. To some extent that is a function of the fact that a lot of non-western immigrants are doing menial work, or being dependent on welfare.

There are some indications though that their voting patterns change when they reach a higher economic stratum. So doctors, lawyers, dentists and engineers with Pakistani background are more likely to vote for parties of the center-right, and to a large extent they do.

The only parties that doesn’t receive any of the non-western immigrant vote is the Agrarian party (SP), the Christian Democrats (KrF) and the Liberals (Venstre). Even the populists in FrP gets a larger share of the immigrant vote than Venstre and KrF, which is sort of ironic, since Venstre and KrF has a far more liberal immigration policy.

So the difference between Norway and the US (in this respect) is that non-western minority groups in Norway are more likely to vote for the center-right, depending on  their income, where they live and how educated they are. As far as I can tell the situation is quite different in the US.

That's not different from the US at all.

Yes it is. The obvious similarity is of course that a lot of minorities are voting for the party on the left. But the similarity ends there. Take for example the African-American professional class (they aren’t immigrants, but they are still a minority). They may be more predisposed to the GOP than their poor neighbors, but they are still overwhelmingly voting Democratic.

The Republicans are probably doing better among upper-income Hispanics and Asians, but not by that much.

[palandio]

Eastern European immigrants have traditionally strongly favoured the CDU. They appear to gradually align with the German population, though, especially among those born in the Former Soviet Union, there is still some CDU lean.

That's of course right, but the "Eastern European" group is absolutely dominated by ethnic Germans and their families that came to Germany due to the Law of Return (ca. 3 millions from the ex-USSR, ca. 2 millions from Poland etc.).
Other groups may include Eastern Europeans marrying German-born Germans, naturalized "guest-workers", naturalized contingent refugees. These may exhibit a completely different voting behavior which we can't deduce from the general "Eastern European" category because they are far less people than the Spätaussiedler.
Of course the Jews are increasingly dominated by naturalized contingent refugees and even Israelis (100.000 have dual citizenship now, though most probably don't vote in Germany.)

[Famous Mortimer]

Hispanics are like 40% Republican.

African Americans are a legitimate exception though.

All other groups get more Republican as they get richer though.

It's also worth noting that all other groups are immigrants, whereas African Americans are not.

[Famous Mortimer]

George W. Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004.

Mitt Romney won 27%

That's more than a little better than they did with African Americans.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It's far too early to say because in Ireland there never has been - until recently - any minority group large enough for people to take all that much notice. I have read that Fianna Fail did well among Poles in 2007 but that was a throwaway remark in a newspaper and I know of no real analysis of this issue otherwise. Despite now about two decades of immigration even in Central Dublin there's nowhere  where migrants/minorities make up more than 20% of the population, although perhaps by the time of the next census there will be such places in North Inner city Dublin.

There is however an exception, but a minority is hardly representative being described here: Irish Anglicans (now only 2.8% of the population but historically larger and largely confined to very particular areas of the country, namely the rump Ulster that is part of the Republic, South West Cork, some corners of Wicklow and the middle class parts of Dublin. Statistics aren't kept but there is a such widespread assumption, born out by many tallies that this is a strong Fine Gael vote.

[Franknburger]

Why do you think Merkels CDU fare better among female voters than other Centre-right parties?

Is it because of the fact that Merkel is a woman, or is it something about the CDU?

The CDU/CSU had historically been doing better with women, with some 8-10% gender gap in the 1950s/ 60s. That gap decreased sharply in 1969 (Willy Brandt) to only 3%, and in 1980 (Schmidt vs. Strauss), the CDU did slightly worse with woman than with men. Between 1983 and 1994 (Kohl), the CDU was again overall doing slightly better with women, but only in the older age groups, while losing younger women to SPD and Greens. In 1998 and 2002 (Schroder) the CDU had a slight male bias (-1.4), which became a minor female bias again in 2005 (+0.7).  This, however, needs to be related to a substantial male bias for the FDP, and common FDP "loan votes". In 2009 and 2013, then, the CDU / CSU has been showing a strong female bias again (+5.5%), which, remarkably, extends across all age groups including voters under 35. The SPD has in the meantime reverted from a female (+2.7 in 2005) to a male bias (-1.6 in 2013), that equally extends across all age groups.

So it is several things:
1.) The old stereotype that the SPD needs a 'womaniser' as candidate to win an election is still valid - the SPD didn't have the right candidate over the last years.

2.)  Merkel as a woman has apparently substantial appeal to woman.

3.) The CDU has considerably modernised. Abortion isn't a political issue anymore, single parents and patchwork families are accepted as 21st century reality, parental leave and allowance has been reformed, so the CDU has become electable again for younger women.

4.) Finally, it is demography: CDU /CSU  is primarily a pensioners' party that has received 50% or more with over-60s. The share of seniors is growing constantly, with women overrepresented, and the CDU has the strongest female bias (+7%) among over-60s.  

---
I found some data on the vote of people with migration background. The chart below is on the 2009 election (1: No migration background, 2. Migration background, 3. Turkish migration background):


A 2013 survey on people with Turkish background shows that the split has increased:
SPD       64
CDU        7
Greens  12
Linke     12
FDP        2

The election analysis for Nuremberg shows a slight CSU preference of voters with migration background, at the expense of Greens and Linke. That indicates "Spätaussiedler" and other people with Eastern European background offsetting the Turkish vote (though I don't have any idea which ratios we are talking about in Nurmeberg).

[Gustaf]

In Sweden I'm not sure how it is within subgroups, but certainly immigrant groups considered as such (that is, excluding Scandinavians, Western Europeans and Anglo-Saxons) have tended to vote SAP or V. But it's far from monolithic and I believe in 2006 the left and right essentially tied among immigrants.

[freefair]

In the UK, my estimates are, based on the last election (C-36 L-29 LD-23 O-12)
Irish- Very Labour (of the Moralistic Socialist style)
-Other White Migrants- Tend to be the same as the rest of the population
Black- Very Labour
Arabs and South Asian Muslims- Quite Labour, with a strong LibDem vote of 25%
Indian- Sikh and Hindu- Quite Labour  but with a strong Tory minority vote of around 30%
Jews- Lean against small parties- about 55% Tory (more Orthodox and culturally middle-class Surburban types), 35% Labour (Bobo and Academic types)
Oriental- America's East "Asians"- No figures but I'd guess they leans strongly towards the Tories with a good LibDem share and very little for Labour.

[Matty]

freefair, how do american expats living in the UK generally vote?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Postwar Eastern European migrants (Poles, Ukrainians, etc) were a very right-wing lot: tended to see 'Labour' on the ballot paper and read 'Communist'. This doesn't appear to be the case with more recent migrants from that part of the world.

Arabs and South Asian Muslims- Quite Labour, with a strong LibDem vote of 25%

I have no idea about Arab voting patterns actually so can't comment. Pakistani voting patterns are complex and are dominated by kinship ('biradari: spellings vary) networks. Generically the tendency is Labour (and a minority vote Labour for 'normal' reasons), but elections are often not generic. So you can see LibDems, Tories, whatever, polling very well sometimes. When George Galloway won Bradford West he rather cunningly appealed to both Pakistanis pissed off with the biradaris and to the biradaris. Gujarati Muslims are generally Labour. Bangladeshi voting patterns are best observed in the London Borough of Tower Hamlets.

In all cases we are talking about seriously working class demographics.

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There's a big division between Orthodox and Secular: the former are mostly Tory (though less so than you'd expect given occupation, lifestyle, etc), the latter are mostly Labour (and less likely to live in concentrated communities because they don't need to be near a Synagogue). Actually its even more complicated than that: there are marked regional differences (i.e. the Jewish community in Hertfordshire is extremely Tory, but northern Jewish communities tend to be rather Labour inclined), and voting patterns in the large and growing Hasidic communities* are strange, to say the least.

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I'm not sure about the patterns in general, but it's known that the Chinese community has very low turnouts.

*There are three principle ones: one in London (Stamford Hill: mostly in Hackney, partly in Tottenham), one in northern Salford, and one in central Gateshead.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Define "liberal parties."

[ingemann]

According to a Opinion poll from 2010 in Denmark among Pakistani, Turks, Somalians, Yugoslav, Iranians, Iraqi, Libanese and Palestinians.

The liberal parties would get 17 mandates (11 to the Social Liberals and 6 to Venstre). That's around 10%  of their vote

Socialist parties would get  158 mandates
94 to the Social Democrats (54%)
56 to SPP (32%)
8 to Unity List (4%)

neither Conservatives, DPP or Liberal Alliance would come above the election threshold.

[Sbane]

Postwar Eastern European migrants (Poles, Ukrainians, etc) were a very right-wing lot: tended to see 'Labour' on the ballot paper and read 'Communist'. This doesn't appear to be the case with more recent migrants from that part of the world.

Arabs and South Asian Muslims- Quite Labour, with a strong LibDem vote of 25%

I have no idea about Arab voting patterns actually so can't comment. Pakistani voting patterns are complex and are dominated by kinship ('biradari: spellings vary) networks. Generically the tendency is Labour (and a minority vote Labour for 'normal' reasons), but elections are often not generic. So you can see LibDems, Tories, whatever, polling very well sometimes. When George Galloway won Bradford West he rather cunningly appealed to both Pakistanis pissed off with the biradaris and to the biradaris. Gujarati Muslims are generally Labour. Bangladeshi voting patterns are best observed in the London Borough of Tower Hamlets.

In all cases we are talking about seriously working class demographics.

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There's a big division between Orthodox and Secular: the former are mostly Tory (though less so than you'd expect given occupation, lifestyle, etc), the latter are mostly Labour (and less likely to live in concentrated communities because they don't need to be near a Synagogue). Actually its even more complicated than that: there are marked regional differences (i.e. the Jewish community in Hertfordshire is extremely Tory, but northern Jewish communities tend to be rather Labour inclined), and voting patterns in the large and growing Hasidic communities* are strange, to say the least.

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I'm not sure about the patterns in general, but it's known that the Chinese community has very low turnouts.

*There are three principle ones: one in London (Stamford Hill: mostly in Hackney, partly in Tottenham), one in northern Salford, and one in central Gateshead.

How do affluent Hindus and Sikhs vote? I understand things are a little different in the UK from the US, but there are still areas with a concentration of middle class Indians, no?

[freefair]

Sikhs and Hindu Indians- about 55% Labour and 30% Tory.