EP elections 2014

[Zanas]

Wow. I will be needing some time for that. But in a nutshell :
- PCF is the ongoing Communist Party from 1923, it is europeist though, and holds a number of strongholds that slowly erode. It's the biggest member of FG, with ca. 40,000 members.
- PG is a splinter from PS in 2008, rejoined by various left-wing types of all sorts. They have a personality cult for Mélenchon, and are largely deluded about the reality of the situation. They are the second member of the FG, with ca. 10,000 members.
- The FG is an electoral alliance of the PCF and the PG, rejoined by numerous groupuscules. Several of these groupuscules joined forces in late 2013 to give birth to Ensemble, the third largest FG member with ca. 2,000 members (including me )

[Zanas]

France:

Ipsos

UMP 24%
FN 22%
PS 19%
EELV 10%
MoDem-UDI 8%
FDG 8%
DLR 3,5%
LO 2%
Europe citoyenne 2%
NPA 1%

Which would give this in seats :
UMP   24   22
PS   19   15
EELV   10   6
Modem-UDI   8   6
FG   8   4
FN   22   18
NPA   1   0
DLR   3,5   0

[Zanas]

How come the NPA still exist?

Every now and then I'm asking myself the same question...

But it's France. You'll always have a number of useless groupuscules shouting things in demonstrations and running in a few elections to have a tribune.

[Zanas]

5. Luxembourg

Is there an opportunity for the Left and the ADR to enter the EP?

Not likely. Either would have to overtake the Greens at around 11% to take the last seat, whereas they got 5% and 6.5% respectively in the last general election.

There are only 6 seats at stake, so they are difficult to reach.

[Zanas]

THe only party seemingly doing this is ironically the most dogmatic, GUE.

Well, f[inks] you too.

How is GUE the most dogmatic ? How is EPP not dogmatic ? What's your problem ?

[Zanas]

It's just a fact that for many years far-left rhetorics have too often (not always) relied on class struggle, proletariate etc.

Are you inferring that there is no class struggle ongoing today ? And that there is no proletariate in our society ? Of course, the proletariate doesn't think of itself as such, and only the dominant class is conscious that there is indeed a class struggle, and that they are winning it. But still, these words may be dated, but the concepts are still very much current.

[Zanas]

I think we actually agree, palandio. It's our comrade Tito I do not agree with completely.

[Zanas]

Talking from a European perspective, can we really call international CEOs or market speculators ''bourgeoisie'' even though they are still wage earners? Can we really call the upper middle class people reliant on income, no longer living in urban industrial areas ''proleteriat'' even though they own land, capital, etc albeit in very small proportion compared to the infamous 1%.

No, we shouldn't call them that, my point exactly. Though there is still a class struggle between a dominant class and an exploited one, and if anything the dominant class is even more dominant than the bourgeoisie ever was, and the exploited are even less self-conscious than the proletariat ever was. Hence all of our problems.

[Zanas]

If you love Tsipras so much, maybe you should move to Greece ? Ouzo is the sh**t.

More seriously, Tsipras is GUE's candidate EU-wide, and there are now more and more people in the "radical left" that live and think in the present. Don't make us a bunch of archaic marxist-leninist. The parties might still have progress to do, but you really can find individuals that are more or less credible and not nutjobs.

[Zanas]

New poll for "Heute" by Unique Research (sample = 800):



FPÖ drops to below 20% for the first time, nice ... hopefully it lasts.



http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1000423

I never thought I would be so happy seeing ÖVP so high...

[Zanas]

It's not clear to me why GroenLinks still exists as a party.

Yes, most of its former voters have switched to SP, PvdD or D66. The party tries to be the sensible leftwing opposition.

Since the party seems to be nearly dead now, it will probably be around 10-15% in the polls in a few years.

You mean next year, when CDA is at 30 again, 50+ at 15, VVD at 4 and PvdA at 20 ?

Netherlands...

[Zanas]

So I took the electio test. Unsurprisingly, my best matches are with the NGL component of GUE-NGL :


1. Hanna Sarkkinen - Vasemmistoliitto - Finlande GUE-NGL - 93%
2. Rita BORSELLINO - Partito Democratico - Italie  S&D - 91%
3. Leonard Heed - Vänsterpartiet - Suède  GUE-NGL - 91%
4. Christian Noiret - Ecolo - Belgique  Greens/EFA - 91%
5. Delfina Rossi - Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds - Espagne  Greens/EFA - 91%

Of actual incumbent MEPs, Rita Borsellino, a PD member of all things, is therefore my best match, which is a bit weird...

What is even way weirder is my matches in France " :

Corinne LEPAGE ALDE 89%

Daniel COHN-BENDIT Greens/EFA 80%

(a bunch of EELV, Bennhamias, then)
yet another Modem :
Sylvie GOULARD ALDE 74%

a PS for christ's sake !
Françoise CASTEX S&D 73%

and finally my first FG one... who's the guy from overseas.

Younous OMARJEE
Liste "Alliance des Outre-Mers"
GUE-NGL
73%

At first I found these pretty weird, but actually they're not so much. I've always been a much greener than red watermelon...

By EP group it's more in line :

GUE-NGL 82%
S&D 77%
Greens/EFA 73%
ALDE 48%
EPP 39%
EFD 37%
ECR 25%

[Zanas]

Edit: Pollwatch gives DLR 1 Seat http://www.electio2014.eu/de/pollsandscenarios/polls#country scroll down and click on France.

Yeah they just compile national polls and don't know how to dispatch them into actual constituency level results at all. DLR is not gaining a seat unless they somehow manage to get above 5% in Île de France, which is not going to happen.

[Zanas]

Well... that's... disturbing.

Oh and anyone who is against abortion and in favor of capital punishment is outright deprived of any credibility whatsoever.

[Zanas]

I'd fully expect the UK, rather than the Netherlands, to publish their results in advance this time around, just to... troll the Commission, you know.

[Zanas]

I would be in awe if Altra Europa con Tsipras actually get 6.3%. Most probably they will be struggling to reach the threshold though, IMO not reaching it by a fluke.

Also, I give you my wild proposition to boost turnout. Each country is given their present seat count in the EP as a maximum, then their actual seat count is a pro-rata of their national turnout, that they ultimately dispatch according to their results. Maybe the fear that there would be as many Spanish MEP as there would French, or more Italian than German, would GOTV somehow. Or not. It's just my two pence.

[Zanas]

So we have a new poll for France (yay!), besides the daily rolling Ifop who's mostly sh**t if you ask me. This one seems more on the spot, apart from the small lists that they don't quite know how to poll it seems. As always, in bold is my projection in seats for the mainland :

UMP 21    21
PS 16    14
EELV 8,5    5
Modem-UDI 8    6
FG 6    3
FN 23    22
NPA 1,5    0
DLR 3    0
LO 2,5    0
ND 2    0
EC 1,5    0
autres 7

Francophones, my short analysis here. Others, ask what you want explained. Basically, it's still neck and neck for first place between FN and UMP, and IMO both could still get it. EELV seems to get a little spark of traction, and could end up around 10, borrowing yet a few more votes from PS. PS at 16 is at least credible, though they could probably end at 14-15 bleeding to EELV. Alternative and FG are nowhere to be seen, thus staying on their hardcore base of respectively 8 and 6. The 4th FG MEP, in N-W, would still be elected with 6.2% nationally.

[Zanas]

So we have a new poll for France (yay!), besides the daily rolling Ifop who's mostly sh**t if you ask me. This one seems more on the spot, apart from the small lists that they don't quite know how to poll it seems. As always, in bold is my projection in seats for the mainland :

UMP 21    21
PS 16    14
EELV 8,5    5
Modem-UDI 8    6
FG 6    3
FN 23    22
NPA 1,5    0
DLR 3    0
LO 2,5    0
ND 2    0
EC 1,5    0
autres 7

Francophones, my short analysis here. Others, ask what you want explained. Basically, it's still neck and neck for first place between FN and UMP, and IMO both could still get it. EELV seems to get a little spark of traction, and could end up around 10, borrowing yet a few more votes from PS. PS at 16 is at least credible, though they could probably end at 14-15 bleeding to EELV. Alternative and FG are nowhere to be seen, thus staying on their hardcore base of respectively 8 and 6. The 4th FG MEP, in N-W, would still be elected with 6.2% nationally.

Is there the slightest chance for DLR gaining one seat? And if so, how could that happen? Even just hypthetical.

Yes, the slightest chance. The only shot they got is the last seat in Île de France. With 15 seats, depending on how much each party above the 5% threshold gets, you are nearly guaranteed to get the last one if you pass the threshold, even barely.

So for DLR to get this, they would need something like a 4% result nationally, translating into a 5.01% in the IdF constituency. Had Dupont-Aignan himself been their candidate there, I would have acknowledged the possibility. But with a nobody, Dominique Jamet, the odds are against them.

So really the slightest of the slightest chance.

[Zanas]

Lots of polls in France lately, counted six in the last 10 days. Not gonna put them all here, but I'll grant you with a weighted average of my crafting, taking into account sample size, phone/online polling (only one firm polled by phone btw...), and obsolescence by date.

UMP   21,87   19
PS   16,65   14
EELV   9,10   6
Modem-UDI   8,84   6
FG   6,94   4
FN   23,21   22
NPA   1,43   0
DLR   2,54   0
ca. 10% Others

Broad tendencies are :
FN a bit ahead of UMP in polling, absolutely not sure how this could end. There is virtually no FN-shy effect anymore, and UMP voters are in all polls more likely to turn out, mainly because older. So I'm still with UMP in the lead.

EELV and Alternative up a bit, possibly hitting 10 eventually. But those two are constantly the least sure about their vote in all polls.

PS hitting its floor, but not going, IMO, to hit its record low of 1994 (14.5%).

FG declining, not dramatically though, going towards a status quo in seats.

DLR getting closer and closer to safe 7th place, but nowhere near a seat.

[Zanas]

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

In some polls NEOS isn't far away from a third seat. So EA getting one seat may hurt NEOS.

Just lately, Neos has been dropping quite a bit and are nowhere near this third seat anymore.

[Zanas]

Made an aggregation of French polls, and a few things they teach us. It's in French, it's on my blog. Learn French, or google-translate it.

I'll give you this though :

   16-mai   20-mai   21-mai
FN   23,21   22,95   22,91
UMP   21,87   21,33   21,58
PS   16,65   17,09   17,11
Modem-UDI   8,84   9,40   9,51
EELV   9,10   8,90   8,79
FG   6,94   7,21   7,23
DLR   2,54   2,55   2,55
ND      1,99   1,88
NPA   1,43   1,37   1,27


And the latest repartition by seats :

FN   22,91   21
UMP   21,58   19
PS   17,11   14
Modem-UDI   9,51   7
EELV   8,79   6
FG   7,23   4


Many things can be inferred from these. Ask any question, I'll try my best.

[Zanas]

I'm voting on Saturday, but I don't know who to vote for. I'm torn between the greenies (EELV), which will win at least one seat in my constituency and which is the major party I agree with the most but I'm not a big fan of them since they're useless and idiotic careerists and their performance in government was crappy (otoh, I credit them for not buying into Valls' scam and their MEPs are actually competent); or the tiny and irrelevant regionalist list (R&PS), which stands zero chance of winning seats and will do horribly, but they're probably the one list I sympathize with the most as a French regionalist myself. I've also considered voting 'Nouvelle donne', a new leftist-progressive party which wants some FDR-like New Deal.

Any recommendations?

Frankly, vote EELV. They are not assured of getting their second candidate in IdF elected, and they usually are the most intelligent in the EP. I tend to agree more with Greenies than my own FG MEPs on a number of votes, particularly, but not solely, on environment-related ones.

Your EELV vote could get Eva Joly into the EP, and even if you don't always agree with her, she usually has this quite iconoclast and refreshing way that we need.

I told the same advice to my office coworker who was hesitating between FG and EELV. Us FG will very likely get our MEP in IdF anyway, and we won't get a second by any means.

Oh and another note on my blog tonight. FN stable, UMP and PS a bit down, Alternative and FG finally taking off and EELV stable.

Could be a three-way race for fourth place with a clear FG dynamic in the latest days.

   16-mai   20-mai   21-mai   22-mai   23-mai
FN   23,21   22,95   22,91   22,93   22,99
UMP   21,87   21,33   21,58   21,60   21,34
PS   16,65   17,09   17,11   17,02   16,71
Modem-UDI   8,84   9,40   9,51   9,55   9,68
EELV   9,10   8,90   8,79   8,90   9,24
FG   6,94   7,21   7,23   7,47   7,77
DLR   2,54   2,55   2,55   2,52   2,53
ND      1,99   1,88   1,99   1,98
NPA   1,43   1,37   1,27   1,16   1,19

Seats :
FN   22,99   21
UMP   21,34   20
PS   16,71   13
Modem-UDI   9,68   7
EELV   9,24   6
FG   7,77   4


And, another thing. The national global scores needed for each FG seat :
1.   Île de France (Le Hyaric, PCF) : 5,1%
2.   Sud-Ouest (Mélenchon, PG) : 5,4%
3.   Sud-Est (Vergiat, non encartée) : 5,9%
4.   Nord-Ouest (Hénin, PCF) : 6,4%
5.   Ouest (Martin, Ensemble) : 8,7%
6.   Centre (Morel-Darleux, PG) : 9,3%
7.   Île de France 2 (Garrido, PG) : 10%
8.   Est (Amard, PG) : 10,1%

As you can see, keeping their 4 incumbent MEPs will be relatively easy, getting a fifth is another paire de manches...

[Zanas]

A handful of votes often do matter; ask the electors of Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

It might, but not in this case.  I doubt Pasok leader's vote will make a difference.  If he wants to vote for a small party that he agrees with, he should IMO.  It might seem like a thrown-away vote, but who knows, it might encourage others to vote for that party in another election.

If 100,000 votes matter and change the election, they're made of 100,000 times one vote, who probably asked itself who he was gonna vote for. So of course one vote do matter.

[Zanas]

So absolutely no exit poll for the UK ? That's disappointing. Anyway, in France the media, after having rooted for FN all the way to the election (directly or indirectly), are now loudly saying that Wilders, Le Pen's allyu, failed miserably, when we only have an exit poll that can change on Sunday, and that the European eurosceptic right is in a bad place because of that...

How can anyone be as stupid as French journalists ? How on Earth, geez !

[Zanas]

So absolutely no exit poll for the UK ? That's disappointing. Anyway, in France the media, after having rooted for FN all the way to the election (directly or indirectly), are now loudly saying that Wilders, Le Pen's allyu, failed miserably, when we only have an exit poll that can change on Sunday, and that the European eurosceptic right is in a bad place because of that...

How can anyone be as stupid as French journalists ? How on Earth, geez !

Same everywhere.
First they push the extremists (here it happened with the Five Star Movement),then they understand what kind of mess they are,and attack (even if based on little,if any,evidence).

You have way too much faith in them. They don't understand anything other than being able to not drool all the time. They just want to sell a story, and nothing sells a story better than plot twists, even if you have to make them up completely...

Anyway, some of my folks on a French forum have been seeing reports on "reliable" twitter accounts that the ranking for EP in the UK would be Lab-Con-Ukip-Green-LibDem.

Anything at all corroborating this ?