LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

^ For CD6? I wish the Senate race was a quiet as the CD6 in terms of the ad wars. I don't think anyone has put anything out yet.

[RogueBeaver]

Jensen just Tweeted that Tillis is nosing 50% in their primary polling thus far.

[windjammer]

But seriously, I still consider Tillis is a bad candidate, less bad that Brannon or Harris though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The other candidates missed their chance to gain traction.


I watched the lower tier candidate's debate on WRAL. The biggest stand out was Jim Snyder, not Ted Alexander. When asked how he would fund increase support for the military and families of military vets, he said, "The best way is to not go to war, we spent trillions of dollars in Iraq just so [Bush] could be a wartime President...".

He also actually answered the question about sea levels threatening the coast as opposed to ducking to the talking points about not knowing the exact cause stating, "Can you really gamble the planet on an uncertainty".

Also Snyder was the only candidate either in the top tier or lower tier that said it was impossible to deport all the illegals, then he endorsed a path to legalization without citizenship. At least he started good. He did make a compelling arguement that because the Federal government's failures, they are to blame for the situation not the illegals themselves, which I actually do agree with him on.

[Miles]

Link to the debate.

Yankee, I kinda just skimmed through it, but I mostly agree. Snyder was the most thoughtful in his answers. Alexander and Kryn were kinda bland; Bradshaw, to say the least, isn't ready for prime time.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I did like one of Bradshaw's answers, "the top tier are the most unelectable".

[Miles]

Just because I was curious, Hagan won the NCGA district that Tillis was first elected to in 2006. Going into redistricting, Tillis' north Mecklenburg seat had grown by 60% (!). It dropped most of the red precincts closer to Charlotte, which flipped it to Dole.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Nate Cohn has a good look at the potential turnout issues for Hagan. Two things are going against her 1) the young voters that she did well with the first time are less likely to vote and 2) Hagan also did well with conservaDems (e.g, sweeping most of southeastern NC); those types have become increasingly more willing to vote Republican.

Also, there's gonna be another (final) Republican debate tonight.

NC-02: This is probably the best read I've come across on Ellmers' primary challenger, Frank Roche. His main issue is immigration, plus he uses the standard 'establishment/compromiser/unprincipled' epithet against Ellmers.

NC-06: A Baby Berger internal from Public Opinion Strategies has him nearly avoiding a runoff:

Berger- 36%
Walker- 14%
VonCannon- 6%
Matheny- 6%

Even if Berger is forced into a runoff, he'd probably still look good. Its hard to see whoever else emerges being able to 1) raise his name rec sufficiently and 2) cobble together enough of the not-Berger vote to get past 50%.

LA-Sen: Landrieu is out with a new ad, as part of her bigger $2M+ buy. Its features the Republican owner of a ship-building company. He says though doesn't agree with her on everything, her seniority for the state is most important.

More NC-Sen: This is a very cool vote tracker for the primary. About 66K ballots have either been cast or requested. Despite the GOP primary being the highest profile race, Democrats make up almost half (49.25%) of the ballots.

For comparison, turnout for the competitive Democratic primary in 2010 was about 425K.

[Miles]

LA-05: Well there goes that...

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[RogueBeaver]

Great Mentioner?

[Miles]

^The Great Mentioner was visiting LA-05 back when this whole can of worms opened last month. Basically, Mayo and Holloway have ruled it out since then (though running for an open seat instead of against a flawed incumbent may lead them to reconsider), but anyone who ran in the special was mentioned.

[Miles]

LA/OR-Sen: This is the back story to Monica Wehby's recent (and great) ad in OR. Why in the world is it in this thread? Her Republican consultant was asked to name a good Democratic ad he's seen:

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There's some obligatory spin here, but I think the reaction has been overall positive.

[Miles]

Quick interview with McAllister and his wife.

Cheating when you have a wife as hot as his is just awful...

[Miles]

Link to the NC debate streaming site.

Its starts at 7 (ET).

[DINGO Joe]

Quick interview with McAllister and his wife.

Cheating when you have a wife as hot as his is just awful...

She didn't strike me as particularly hot, of course he's no George Clooney either, but marriage isn't about getting the hottest girl you can get to say yes.

Really, it was just an interview with Vince as I see the woman still doesn't get to talk, and possibly doesn't want too; still makes these things extra tacky.

And since these things always fascinate me, the opening shot of the two female anchors and their contrasting hair was quite the visual, only equaled or exceeded by the strange need to do a super closeup of the large headed political consultant shaking his head in what I assume is disgust.

I give the video a 9.5 only brought down by the relative blandness of the male reporter.

[Indy Texas]

Quick interview with McAllister and his wife.

Cheating when you have a wife as hot as his is just awful...

As Rob Ford would say, Vance McAllister clearly already had more than enough to eat at home.

[Miles]

^ Haha, exactly.

NC-03: Idk how much of a net plus this is, but Palin has endorsed Griffin over Jones in the primary.

NC-Sen: Civitas has a new poll of the primary with Tillis pushing 40%:

Tillis- 38%
Brannon- 17%
Harris- 14%

PPP should be out with their numbers later today, but this seems about where the consensus is. The Brannon folks have to be banking on ground game at this point. Tillis may still keep pulling away, though, as the Chamber of Commerce has a last-minute buy for him and Rouzer.

LA-05: This article is about as good an analysis as it gets when it comes to assessing the field that could emerge now.

NC-06: VonCannon has an ad running where he goes negative on Berger; accusing him of being soft as a prosecutor and being well-connected. Sadly for VonCannon, Berger's response ad is pretty good.

[Miles]

On top of the PPP/Civitas polls out today, McCrory says he's voting for Tillis:

[windjammer]

On top of the PPP/Civitas polls out today, McCrory says he's voting for Tillis:

An another reason to support his opponents

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Strategists on both sides think Tillis clinches the nomination next week.

[publicunofficial]

So we can confirm that 9/11 Truther is officially the level at which you are too crazy for a GOP primary.

[Miles]

LA-05: Some in leadership think McAllister's retirement wasn't enough. Cantor is still thinks he should resign. The LAGOP seemed content to see him retire, so that probably gives him the impetus to stick around until the end of his term.

Yep; McAllister is sticking around.

LA-Sen/Misc: Political Wire talk with LA sage John Maginnis. Worth listening to.

[windjammer]

I guess LA democrats will compete here this time?

[henster]

LA-05: Some in leadership think McAllister's retirement wasn't enough. Cantor is still thinks he should resign. The LAGOP seemed content to see him retire, so that probably gives him the impetus to stick around until the end of his term.

Yep; McAllister is sticking around.

LA-Sen/Misc: Political Wire talk with LA sage John Maginnis. Worth listening to.

Wow, wow why such a hard line aganst McAllister but not against Grimm's indictment? No one is calling for his resignation the response from leadership has been muted...

[Miles]

Wow, wow why such a hard line aganst McAllister but not against Grimm's indictment? No one is calling for his resignation the response from leadership has been muted...

'Wonder how much being from a safe seat has to do with the much harsher scrutiny they're giving McAllister. Also, Cantor was one of Riser's biggest supporters in the special.