Uniform swing from Clinton-Trump margin (which of course is dicey) would indicate a 9 point Menendez lead. That's approximately how this race feels - about a 10 point Menendez win, which is quite underwhelming given the state and national environment.
Basically 2006 all over again.
But there's a big catch with this comparison (and comparisons to 2012 as well). Uniform swing analysis doesn't account for the regional differences in each race. While some of that is overall realignment within the state, Hugin profiles as a much better candidate for the suburban set than Trump. His potential winning coalition looks much closer to Kean's than Trump's was, which means he doesn't have to win this district by as as much as Trump would have had to.
Some estimation on my part shows the district as roughly Kean +9 in 2006.
In 2008, under current boundaries, the district was McCain +7.8.
In 2012, the district was Kyrillos +8.17 and Romney +9.64.
In 2013, it was Christie +9.72 and Lonegan +18.29.
In 2014, it was Bell +16.37.
In 2016, Trump +19.1.
In other words, if the state is in pre-2014 alignment, up 10 is exactly where Hugin needs to be to win narrowly. If it's more like recent results show, he is still trailing by a wide single-digit margin. I'd imagine it's somewhere in between. Hugin profiles as a more serious Christie/Kean statewide contender than Bell or Lonegan ever were, but the environment has undoubtedly shifted.
Again, I
really wish that Siena had polled on this race in NJ-07. Then we'd know how much of this is a statewide swing and how much is regional realignment.
