WI-Marquette: Biden +8

[VAR]

Biden 52%
Trump 44%

https://lubarcenter.shinyapps.io/MLSPBook/

Was Biden +4 in May.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Skeptical about this.  The poll release was pushed back to next Tuesday.

[ajc0918]

Trump campaign should triage Wisconsin.

[VAR]

Skeptical about this.  The poll release was pushed back to next Tuesday.

Next Tuesday? So about a month after the poll was conducted?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Skeptical about this.  The poll release was pushed back to next Tuesday.

Next Tuesday? So about a month after the poll was conducted?

That's what their official account tweeted:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1291032129988636680

[Annatar]

https://www.marquette.edu/news-center/2020/update-marquette-law-school-poll-release-moved-to-tuesday-aug-11.php

This is what they had to say.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, according to 538 this 52-44 result is from June.  So it's not the current poll.

[pbrower2a]

The event horizon looms for any chance for the re-election of the President with a number like this in a likely tipping-point state.  

[President Johnson]

Isn't Marquette considered the Gold Standard of Wisconsin polls? While the margin is likely going to be closer, Joe Biden at 52% is pretty strong. Not sure whether Hillary ever matched this this far out.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It might be old but it should still inspire terror within the Trump campaign that their victory in 2016 might have been a massive fluke.

[SenatorCouzens]

Isn't Marquette considered the Gold Standard of Wisconsin polls? While the margin is likely going to be closer, Joe Biden at 52% is pretty strong. Not sure whether Hillary ever matched this this far out.

Clinton led Trump 52 to 37 in Wisconsin in the Marquette poll in the first week of August, see the real clear politics page for many 2016 Wisconsin polls.

[Yellowhammer]

WI = Safe D

[Hammy]

Isn't Marquette considered the Gold Standard of Wisconsin polls? While the margin is likely going to be closer, Joe Biden at 52% is pretty strong. Not sure whether Hillary ever matched this this far out.

They consistently had Hillary winning, but don't appear to have actually over-estimated her support (she was getting between 41 and 47), only underestimated Trump's. There's not room for Trump to win if the same has happened this time.

[pbrower2a]

+8... twice the usual margin of error in a state frequently polled by a credible pollster.... fringe of contention.

[SenatorCouzens]

Isn't Marquette considered the Gold Standard of Wisconsin polls? While the margin is likely going to be closer, Joe Biden at 52% is pretty strong. Not sure whether Hillary ever matched this this far out.

They consistently had Hillary winning, but don't appear to have actually over-estimated her support (she was getting between 41 and 47), only underestimated Trump's. There's not room for Trump to win if the same has happened this time.

This isn't correct. Marquette had Clinton at 52 and 51 in two different polls in August, and had her at 50 in a poll at the end of September. Trump was at 37 or less in all three.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I hate to be that guy, but these are Marquette's numbers for 2016:

June 6-9: Clinton +9 (46-37)
July 7-10: Clinton +4 (45-41)
August 4-7: Clinton +15 (52-37)
August 25-28: Clinton +3 (45-42)
September 15-18: Clinton +2 (44-42)
October 6-9: Clinton +4 (46-42)
October 26-31: Clinton +6 (46-40)

It's worth noting, however, that except for that weird +15 outlier, all of these polls underestimated Clinton's vote total. The undecideds broke for Trump in ridiculous numbers.

So, I feel a lot better about MU's polls that have Biden above 50%, but like a lot of people, I still have post-2016 stress syndrome.

[wbrocks67]

I hate to be that guy, but these are Marquette's numbers for 2016:

June 6-9: Clinton +9 (46-37)
July 7-10: Clinton +4 (45-41)
August 4-7: Clinton +15 (52-37)
August 25-28: Clinton +3 (45-42)
September 15-18: Clinton +2 (44-42)
October 6-9: Clinton +4 (46-42)
October 26-31: Clinton +6 (46-40)

It's worth noting, however, that except for that weird +15 outlier, all of these polls underestimated Clinton's vote total. The undecideds broke for Trump in ridiculous numbers.

So, I feel a lot better about MU's polls that have Biden above 50%, but like a lot of people, I still have post-2016 stress syndrome.

Their final poll in 2018 nailed it. Why do people keep on ignoring 2018 like it didn't exist?

[lfromnj]

I hate to be that guy, but these are Marquette's numbers for 2016:

June 6-9: Clinton +9 (46-37)
July 7-10: Clinton +4 (45-41)
August 4-7: Clinton +15 (52-37)
August 25-28: Clinton +3 (45-42)
September 15-18: Clinton +2 (44-42)
October 6-9: Clinton +4 (46-42)
October 26-31: Clinton +6 (46-40)

It's worth noting, however, that except for that weird +15 outlier, all of these polls underestimated Clinton's vote total. The undecideds broke for Trump in ridiculous numbers.

So, I feel a lot better about MU's polls that have Biden above 50%, but like a lot of people, I still have post-2016 stress syndrome.

Unlike some idiots at cough cough * Marist, Marquette learned to weight by education.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I hate to be that guy, but these are Marquette's numbers for 2016:

June 6-9: Clinton +9 (46-37)
July 7-10: Clinton +4 (45-41)
August 4-7: Clinton +15 (52-37)
August 25-28: Clinton +3 (45-42)
September 15-18: Clinton +2 (44-42)
October 6-9: Clinton +4 (46-42)
October 26-31: Clinton +6 (46-40)

It's worth noting, however, that except for that weird +15 outlier, all of these polls underestimated Clinton's vote total. The undecideds broke for Trump in ridiculous numbers.

So, I feel a lot better about MU's polls that have Biden above 50%, but like a lot of people, I still have post-2016 stress syndrome.

Their final poll in 2018 nailed it. Why do people keep on ignoring 2018 like it didn't exist?

I don't think anyone is ignoring 2018, but midterm elections are a different beast from Presidential elections.

The much lower numbers of undecided voters gives me confidence, however. I don't think you'll have 10% of voters making up their mind in the final week like in 2016. I suspect there are very few people out there who haven't decided at this point.