What recession? July job’s report destroys expectations

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WSJ/status/1555533862666649600
https://mobile.twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1555531915641425925

[Hindsight was 2020]

Suddenly recessions are defined by jobs reports and unemployment rate instead of GDP. Labor force participation rate, though... that's not a thing.

But they're NOT defined by GDP, except as an unofficial rule-of-thumb.  Like all such empirical rules, this is not a hard and fast definition, especially in exceptional situations. 

In the U.S., recessions are officially declared by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), which defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”  The continued strong growth in jobs and extremely low unemployment rate make it clear that the current U.S. economy does not fit the definition of a recession.

I'll give credit where it's due. The jobs report is good news. I'm glad the blue states have decided to pull their weight. Labor force participation rate, however, directly affects the unemployment rate. Currently it sits at 62.1% and has declined in recent months. Compare that to 63.4% in 2020. The unemployment rate only counts those in the participation rate, meaning that even with a low unemployment rate, we have not recovered the actual number of jobs lost from COVID policies.