2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

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Poll: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards' approval rating climbs to 65%, outpacing Kennedy, Cassidy

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Poll: Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards' approval rating climbs to 65%, outpacing Kennedy, Cassidy

He's going to be tough to beat for sure.

Belmentum!

Also.... hopefully a county wide landslide for Edwards against a nobody Republican helps make state legislature gains. The LA legislature is not as lopsided as most red states

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Good news for Svaty:

‘I will remain Governor,’ Brownback tweets after Trump nomination stalls

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Blue Wave imminent for South Dakota

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Bye bye Walker (among others)

https://www.twitter.com/jaredleopold/status/973745176035381248

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There is no NH megathread, so I'll post it here: Angry White Women Molly Kelly will enter the NH gov race tomorrow.

http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-democrat-molly-kelly-to-announce-run-for-governor/19724585

Sununununununun is done

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Roy Cooper will probably win in 2019

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Good news: NC Dems on track to flip the General Assembly:

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The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.

The gerrymanders of VA and WI have not been holding out in these special legislative elections, so there is a good chance the Dems might be able to break them. I think NC voters have just had it with the GOP

RINO Tom Tillis is finished

BIG

[junior chįmp]

The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.

The gerrymanders of VA and WI have not been holding out in these special legislative elections, so there is a good chance the Dems might be able to break them. I think NC voters have just had it with the GOP

RINO Tom Tillis is finished

BIG

The GOP's supermajorities in (both?) chambers are going to be gone imo, but an actual flip of both chambers under the current R-gerrymandered lines is going to be very hard to attain. If the VA state house didn't really flip in 2017, why would the NC state house and senate flip this year?
Also, important to note, NC is pretty inelastic...unlike WI.

This upcoming legislative election has the most Democrats running ever. I think there is a real good chance it can flip

[junior chįmp]

The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.

The gerrymanders of VA and WI have not been holding out in these special legislative elections, so there is a good chance the Dems might be able to break them. I think NC voters have just had it with the GOP

I'm really curious what a D+7 result would do to the legislature, but I think I have to agree with TimTurner in that flipping it with just D+7 doesn't seem possible. There is also precedent for this. Michigan's state House didn't flip in 2012 even with an almost D+8 popular vote win. Republicans walked away with a comfortable if not slimmer majority. The only difference between an R+8 pv in 2010 and a D+8 win in 2012 in Michigan was Democrats gaining 4 seats. That's literally all they got with wave-like numbers.

To use a more recent example, in Virginia 2017, Democrats flipped only one or two Trump seats with a 9 point PV win (skewed maybe by more seats w/o GOP candidates). Granted, Democrats flipped 15 seats, but almost all of them were Clinton seats. In order to flip the NC GA, Democrats would have to flip dozens of Trump seats. It's hard to see that happening, tbh.

The Virginia HoD had a higher efficiency gap than the current NC General Assembly. NC's is around 12%, while VA's was nearly 20%:

 

Despite the gigantic efficiency gap, and with the experts over at DDHQ giving the VA HoD a 4% chance of flipping the day of the election...the Dems nearly flipped the legislature until the courts stole 1 seat. One of the major reasons it flipped is because the Democrats fielded a candidate for nearly every seat in VA.

Now, for the first time in history, NC has fielded a Democratic candidate for every legislative race and having a candidate for every seat in a terrible environment tends to cancel out the efficiency gap of gerrymandering:

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If the VA HoD could (nearly) flip with a 18% efficiency gap....then the NC legislature could flip with a 12% gap

Of course....it may not flip but I think it stands a really good chance.