🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[mileslunn]

With elections next year and some polls suggesting a Red-Red-Green coalition would have majority, if that happens is it likely to form or will you more likely see another Grand Coalition.  Black-Green grand coalition seems most likely although Jamaica coalition possible but probably too difficult as didn't work out last time.  On other hand if CDU chooses someone more right wing like Merz, could he attract a lot of AfD supporters over and do so without alienating moderates?

While this is on state not national, will what is happening in Thuringia have spillovers nationally or not?  Lots of times it seems like state elections have little correlation with federal and also I believe in state elections turnout tends to be much lower than in federal too so will this have any impact or as usual will it be irrelevant?

[mileslunn]

While off topic, looking at federal how likely is a Green-Red-Red coalition as recent polls show them now ahead of parties on the right although rarely does left maintain their high numbers in between elections, but might that be possible or is a Black-Green more likely in next federal election?