Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Is Ukraine is trying to create its own version of Karine Jean-Pierre?  The chances of someone from Ukraine looking like this person are nearly zero.

https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1785558101908742526

I know that be as ridiculous as trying to pass this guy off as the president of Peru:
https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberto_Fujimori

[Hindsight was 2020]

Zelensky Working From Home

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6WQHr_SYqr/

Lol get it it’s because he’s asking for aid to help his country fight off a genocidal invasion hahahaha so funny. Also you made this joke already in the USGD aid thread you lazy loser troll

[Hindsight was 2020]

Jockeying for position in potential future (and later ongoing) negotiations is what happened in Korea for the last two and a half years of the war:

"General Skibitsky says he does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. Even if it were able to push Russian forces back to the borders—an increasingly distant prospect—it wouldn’t end the war. Such wars can only end with treaties, he says. Right now, both sides are jockeying for the 'the most favourable position' ahead of potential talks. But meaningful negotiations can begin only in the second half of 2025 at the earliest, he guesses. By then, Russia will be facing serious "headwinds". Russian military production capacity has increased but will plateau by early 2026, he reckons, due to shortages in material and engineers. Both sides could eventually run out of weapons. Butif nothing changes in other respects, Ukraine will run out first."

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1786130331868819524

As he notes later in the thread the EU increasing productivity and aid to Ukraine is a key aspects as keeping Ukraine from running out first before Russia does changes a lot

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine should be expecting a healthy supply of Atacms throughout the year now
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1786146733719765338
https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024/05/production-surge-eases-pentagon-worries-about-sending-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine-00155846

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like the average number of killed Russian troops every day increased to over 1000

Not a surprise, despite the ammo issues, Ukraine still has a lot of drone to harass Russian lines

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1786492797173805427?s=12
🫡💪

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1787213395713826905
Interesting read
https://archive.is/UGoIp

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russians were fighting for individual streets in Stalingrad.

Over on planet reality, the Soviet Union was 50% ethnically non-Russian. And especially during Stalingrad, when much of European Russia was overrun by the Axis, many of the Red Army soldiers were non-Russian minorities recruited in territories that the Soviet Union still controlled in Siberia and the Caucasus etc. A lot of the ethnic Russians in the Red Army had previously been captured or killed in the opening earlier stages of the war.

So no, it wasn't "Russians" who were fighting for individual streets in Stalingrad. Some were Russian, many many were not. Soviets (including Ukrainians) did that, not Russians.

Two years later they were at the gates of Berlin and Vienna.

Literally the guy who took the iconic photo waving the flag over the Reichstag was Ukrainian (Yevgeny Khaldei), and the Red Army soldiers he photographed raising the flag were a Kazakh, a Dagestani, and a Belarussian. Not a single actual Russian among them lol:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raising_a_Flag_over_the_Reichstag

On 2 May 1945, Khaldei scaled the now pacified Reichstag to take his picture. He was carrying with him a large flag, sewn from three tablecloths for this very purpose, by his uncle.[6] The official story would later be that two hand-picked soldiers, Meliton Kantaria[A 2] (Georgian) and Mikhail Yegorov[A 3] (Russian), raised the Soviet flag over the Reichstag,[1][7][8][9] and the photograph would often be used as depicting the event. Some authors state that for political reasons the subjects of the photograph were changed and the actual man to hoist the flag was Aleksei Kovalev.[10][11] However, according to Khaldei himself, when he arrived at the Reichstag, he simply asked the soldiers who happened to be passing by to help with the staging of the photoshoot;[12][13] the one who was attaching the flag was 18-year-old Private Kovalev from Burlin, Kazakhstan[14] and the two others were Abdulkhakim Ismailov from Dagestan and Leonid Gorychev (also mentioned as Aleksei Goryachev) from Minsk.[13] The photograph was taken with a Leica III rangefinder camera with a 35mm f3.5 lens.[15]

Not to mention Russia are the Nazis in this scenario lol. They’re the invading army. That’s not even touching the obvious other issues (lend lease, two fronts, etc.)

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1787502965395427357?s=46
😬

[Hindsight was 2020]

It seems Russia’s attempts to breakthrough in the Donbas have slowed down due to lack of quality equipment and making everything infantry based which naturally is a slower moving offensive

[Hindsight was 2020]

“Has the EU really just found €400B it could spend on defense?”

BRUSSELS — The EU's emergency bailout fund — created at the peak of the debt crisis — could be the answer to governments' prayers: a ready-made money pot it could invest in defense.
Powerful figures in the bloc are pushing for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), worth €422 billion, to move beyond its original role rescuing drowning economies, according to five people with knowledge of the discussions.
It could instead take on the task of distributing cheap loans to buy weapons, one of them said.

Wow this could be a major shot in the arm for Europe’s ability to increase aid to Ukraine and their own defensive production
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-emergency-bailout-fund-defense-spending-investment-european-stability-mechanism/

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oryx now has their total count of visually documented Russian tank losses since the 22 invasion at 3,000 👀
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

[Hindsight was 2020]

Raid ain’t going well

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1788896965280870683

[Hindsight was 2020]

Really amazing they’d waste armor like this for essentially a border raid over supporting the Donbas push
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1788940862094741837?s=12

[Hindsight was 2020]

Really amazing they’d waste armor like this for essentially a border raid over supporting the Donbas push
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1788940862094741837?s=12

It's stretching the Ukrainian forces thinner like I said previously.

Tatarigami_UA - who runs the Frontelligence Substack site:

Overnight, Russian infrantry, backed by armored vehicles, entered Kharkiv oblast from Belgorod area, using small tactical units. Frontelligence Insight had previously cautioned about this scenario. Here's what we know about it:

The capture of border villages like Strilecha, Krasne, Pylne, and Borysivka isn't unexpected. It's an anticipated maeuver to divert Ukrainian resources from the main Russian offensive in Donbas. Considering manpower shortages, Ukraine will be forced to redeploy some personnel.

...

Russians anticipate a significant social backlash, inducing panic and demands for resolution. This pressure aims to compel the redeployment  of units from critical areas of Russian advances in Donbas. Meanwhile, Russian forces deploy infantry units incapable of deep strikes.

The situation is expected to evolve, with Russian forces deploying more units to penetrate additional border areas or to reinforce initial successes. With our estimate of their force equivalent to two Russian corps, they can sustain this operation.

Thus far, the Russian forces have not breached the main Ukrainian defense. Given the time required for Ukrainian units to deploy to the area, it is premature to assess the overall success or failure of this incursion. We will continue to provide updates.

Rob Lee agrees, says it's designed to take units away from defending Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.

If I'm Russian leadership considering Ukrainian manpower shortages, just play a game of 15-on-13 rugby along the frontline, find where they don't have men or their presence is light and attack the gainline on that day.

Yeah I know this is there thinking but it could just as easily bite them in the ass as it’s wasting equipment on fortified areas when they are facing stock depletion issues by next year

[Hindsight was 2020]

Really amazing they’d waste armor like this for essentially a border raid over supporting the Donbas push
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1788940862094741837?s=12

It's stretching the Ukrainian forces thinner like I said previously.

Tatarigami_UA - who runs the Frontelligence Substack site:

Overnight, Russian infrantry, backed by armored vehicles, entered Kharkiv oblast from Belgorod area, using small tactical units. Frontelligence Insight had previously cautioned about this scenario. Here's what we know about it:

The capture of border villages like Strilecha, Krasne, Pylne, and Borysivka isn't unexpected. It's an anticipated maeuver to divert Ukrainian resources from the main Russian offensive in Donbas. Considering manpower shortages, Ukraine will be forced to redeploy some personnel.

...

Russians anticipate a significant social backlash, inducing panic and demands for resolution. This pressure aims to compel the redeployment  of units from critical areas of Russian advances in Donbas. Meanwhile, Russian forces deploy infantry units incapable of deep strikes.

The situation is expected to evolve, with Russian forces deploying more units to penetrate additional border areas or to reinforce initial successes. With our estimate of their force equivalent to two Russian corps, they can sustain this operation.

Thus far, the Russian forces have not breached the main Ukrainian defense. Given the time required for Ukrainian units to deploy to the area, it is premature to assess the overall success or failure of this incursion. We will continue to provide updates.

Rob Lee agrees, says it's designed to take units away from defending Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.

If I'm Russian leadership considering Ukrainian manpower shortages, just play a game of 15-on-13 rugby along the frontline, find where they don't have men or their presence is light and attack the gainline on that day.

Yeah I know this is there thinking but it could just as easily bite them in the ass as it’s wasting equipment on fortified areas when they are facing stock depletion issues by next year

One of his posts I did not copy is these areas are not fortified because the border is a gray zone. The fortifications are further inland.

If they want to actually draw Ukrainian forces away they have to push towards the fortified areas that hold strategic importance the areas they raised today aren’t going to get that desired effect

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1789249276314276291?s=46
Wow the UK coming out of the blue with this

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1789267539282850280
😬 🔥

[Hindsight was 2020]

Speaks to how much the war has changed that we’ve gone from fighting for Kyiv to our biggest vatnik cheerleader flexing over Russia going into greyzone on the Kharkiv border

[Hindsight was 2020]

Speaks to how much the war has changed that we’ve gone from fighting for Kyiv to our biggest vatnik cheerleader flexing over Russia going into greyzone on the Kharkiv border

It is really bizarre how much Russia's mentally ill supporters have moved the goalposts over the years. This mess is obviously an endless stalemate and a tremendous waste of resources and human life (something Russians historically have never seemed to value). But the cheerleading kind of reminds me of how in the late 2000s and 2010s, the Dubya cheerleaders or US military fans would post about how some random terrorist (not a big name bin Laden or Saddam) got killed by a US drone strike, as though that was going to mean anything. It's the same here. Big deal, the Russians advanced through another empty field. Weeks worth of effort for that.

At least Dubya achieved his initial war goals 😬

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine has until January 2029 to expel Russian forces from its entire territory if we're lucky. More likely, only until January 2025. That's why I'm deeply pessimistic on their chances - time is not on their side. They need a major breakthrough, and they need it at a time when Russia seems to be having most of the breakthroughs.

Neither side has the resources to keep the war going that long unless it big time freezes at some point

[Hindsight was 2020]

Snip

That type of arrogant thinking is what bite Putin in the ass in 22 so good to see the Kremlin refusing to learn from their biggest mistakes

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1789723287565562087
Putin has replaced Shoigu. Noooooo he was Ukraine’s most valuable asset 😭

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’ve said it once before and I’ll say it again. The poster above is a scumass PoS and I sincerely hope he gets what he and every other vatnik and russian mobik/fanboy deserves. People like him are no better than axis cheerleaders from the 40s

Meanwhile, Shoigu is demoted and Patrushev is on the way out

Actually he technically got promoted but in a way where he has less control over the army but will have more direct sway on Putin
https://twitter.com/NicoleGrajewski/status/1789726687602553309

[Hindsight was 2020]

Patrushev losing Putin's favor feels like it came out of nowhere.

Especially as his son is still the head of agriculture