San Jose State University: Schwarzenegger (R) has a 7 point lead on Angelida

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: California Governor by San Jose State University on 2006-06-30

Summary: D: 37%, R: 44%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't believe this poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It has registered voters and I believe likely voters more. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not necessarily that reg voters lean Dem because Quinnepiac uses registered voters and they always have Republicans doing better.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

US Gallup poll had Kerry behind Bush by 8 points among registered voters in WI and 6 points behind Bush among likely voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea, and in 2004 they had Bush leading Kerry in FL and now they have Crist over Davis.  We go through the same spill every election cycle that says that have Quinnepiac and Strategic Vision and Mason Dixion showing a more Republican bias than the main media polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And Davis is behind Crist now in FL by 2, I see they went back to their bias again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I simply said in the Republican based battleground Mason Dixon, Strategic Vision, and Quinnepiac oversample more republicans and in the Dem lean battleground they sample more Dems those are the facts. And to deny those facts is not looking at reality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea but in the 1990's they were off. And Mason Dixon said that MN would be closer than what it turned out. And they said Kerry would lose WI and that didn't turn out. But Mason-Dixon samples 37D and 37R and most other pollsters sample 37D-35R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And Mason Dixon so happened to be accurate last time in OH because their prediction on that sample of republicans came to past. In WI where that weren't that many it turned out to be false.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Knight Ridder is part of Mason Dixon and they did poll in the 90's and I recall they predicted AZ and FL would go Republican in 1996 and that didn't come to past.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said that if the number of Republicans came out the way mason dixon came out then in alot of those republican lean battlegronds like OH, FL, MN, and WI will come out to past. But if their poll of republicans doesn't come out they are wrong, and in 2004 we had a huge Republican turnout. That wasn't expected.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I go by LV polls: Gallup, Zogby, and Associated press Ipsos. Any other that uses variety like Knight Ridder, Mason Dixon, or Quinnepiac I forget about. Just like that Univ of Cincy poll had DeWine ahead by 10 and it was registered voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said that I don't trust Registered voters. Of course Mason Dixon killed their prediction of oversampling republicans panned out because their was more republican enthusiam.  So, their number of sampling republicans turned out to be correct. But this year, the energy is on the left, the republicans aren't going to turn out like they did in 2004 and we the house, the senate and the governors mansions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

we are going to get a sweep and win the open seat in TN.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I disagree with you in MI, the loss of manufacturing jobs are going to kill republicans in MI and Granholm will pull through.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There you guys go again. Zogby before the election night predicted that on his website that the Kerry would win NH and FL and lose NM. And Larry Sabato and Fox News had the same prediction. He only changed it because he was going by the exit polls.  And by the evening time he said that it was wrong and went back to his online polls. His online polls were the accurate ones. And he said he would trust those over projections anytime. And by the way like I said before Mason Dixon was only accurate because they had a high republican turnout.  The turnout will not be that way this way and I doubt if they predict based on in the past it will turn out that way. The Dems will turnout and we will sweep everything.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have to respond to your post. Eventhough you claim all these errors, you don't look at the approval ratings of these governors and senators. Vilsack might be going down because he has high disapproval ratings. MN has elected a Dem governor I don't know how long. And what other poll got Schwarzenegger ahead. And don't forget Baustamante was ahead early in the recall election and he lost. Just because you are ahead don't mean you are going to win especially like in IA and MN within the margin of error.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who is to say that Zogby isn't and the other ones are. You can argue that Zogby is right and the others are wrong. All I know is that Fox news and Larry Sabato had the same number of states Bush and Kerry won in 2004 and both are liberal and conservative. As long as Zogby is respected by Dems and Republicans I will respect his polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One last thing is like I said before, since the same the republicans turned out in the same number as Mason Dixon said and that isn't normal, then republicans win. But if you go by the Gallup and Zogby they  usually don't oversample republcians and the republicans aren't going to turn out like they did in 2000, 2002, and 2004 and they will lose and Mason Dixon will be on the losing in this time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Like I said I believe more so likely voters not registered voters. I believe Survey USA polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not necessarily. They say that they talk to 1000 people, 800 are registered to vote and 600 are likely to vote. Gallup uses the same method. That is reflective of the voting population. And that isn't a small number.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I made a mistake Knight Ridder Mason Dixon had WI close and MN going to Bush.