4.86% Swing in 2012

[Yelnoc]

According to Leip's swing data for 2008, voters swung to the Democratic Party by 9.73%.  The below scenario assumes a half-back swing; 4.86%.  The 4.86% has been distributed evenly, subtracted from Obama and added to the Republican in all 50 state + D.C.  As you can see, that produces a very tight election. 

Republican:280
Democrat:258

States with a 1% Margin
Colorado
Iowa
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire

[Yelnoc]

This map is wrong. First off you need to take each state and apply their trend. A simple swing toward the Republican candidate will not happen because each state has a different trend.

Well, sure.  I'm just a lazy bastard.

@Everyone questioning my methodology: I subtracted 4.86% from Obama on the 2008 maps and gave it to McCain, who has been renamed "GOP Candidate."  Is that not the same thing as "reverse swing"?

[Yelnoc]

^ That would be a full swing. You said it was a half-swing initially.

A half-swing to the Republicans would be: 9.72/2=4.86. Subtract 4.86 from the D margin in 2008 (7.26-4.86=2.40).

So a "half" swing back to the Republicans would result in a D +2.40 election.

Does slicing off 4.86 from Obama and adding 4.86 to McCain result in this margin? No,  it results in R + 2.45. Which is  the 2004 margin, meaning it's just a full reverse swing.

I think that's the source of confusion, at least. I don't know really know what you were trying to do.

Yeah, I was confused because it said the total swing to Obama was 9.73%.  But that would have resulted in a ridiculous Republican landslide.  So I divided it by two, which I thought was half.

For heck's sake, here is a "real" "half-swing" map.

Obama 291
Republican 247

[Yelnoc]

Here is a 1 and 1/2 swing (7.29%).

Obama 212
Republican 326

[Yelnoc]

Uniform swings = Laziness. Though its true of course that it would be some hard work in seeing the swingability of every state.

Well, sure, I'm not actually going to devote that much time to this.  You go ahead though

[Yelnoc]

Yeah, if anyone wants to state by state trend for the 4.86% one, by all means.  T'would be muy interesante.