Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I would guess Moore wins from anywhere between 3-5 points; though a Jones victory wouldn't absolutely shock me. Anyway a lot is obviously going to depend on turnout.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I’m in Gadsden right now.. a lot more signs are out today for both candidates. Jones still has more than Moore.

Our those lawn signs or signs just on public property?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.

lol this is so random.

AP's test results appear fairly realistic for this race, though turnout seems too high. They should try to be more unrealistic in case anyone accidentally thinks the numbers are real.

I remember on Super Tuesday one of the networks published test data for exit polls before polls closed and some users seemed to believe the data was legit.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

What would the race look like if Jones ran as a pro-life Democrat?

Maybe a 1% or 2% better at best but not much more so. The election seems to be coming down to whether voters believe the allegations against Roy Moore.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?

No idea.  I'm not even sure we know who they're from.  Hopefully at least one will be a high-quality pollster and not some nocturnal aviation company.

One of them is apparently from Change Research not sure who the other one is from.

 https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/940261663835537409

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Does anyone know if their will be an exit poll released tomorrow?