US House Redistricting: Texas

[Deldem]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/us/22ttramsey.html

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I can't imagine that Perry would ever let this happen.

Basically, they've got two weeks.  The budget is the other big thing that has to happen, and even though there is a general framework, details are not exactly in stone yet.  I don't know whether they'll be able to accomplish both, and Texas redistricters have not shown great creativity so far, which means they may prefer the court to draw the boundaries and wait, as the court tends to protect incumbents.  We'll see.

They could call a special session. They did it in 2003. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Perry did it again.

[jimrtex]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/us/22ttramsey.html

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I can't imagine that Perry would ever let this happen.

The senate and house redistricting bills were passed yesterday.

It is pretty likely that there will be a special session to deal with redistricting, plus cleanup of everything that doesn't get finished this week.  Perry gets to set the agenda.  Traditionally, everyone can file bills and they can be taken up in committee, but they can't be passed unless they are on the call or added to the call.

State courts get first crack at redistricting.  In 2001, a state court drew a very nice congressional map, and then Pete Laney queered the deal.  The Texas Supreme Court threw out the state map.  It was only then that the federal court took over.

The federal district court drew a map that maintained existing boundaries to the extent possible (deferring to the legislative intent as expressed in past maps, and locating new districts where there was the most excess population.  This actually works out well for Republicans because a federal court won't draw a contorted district in DFW in an area where the population has not been increasing.  A federal court won't draw another fajita strip in South Texas.  And if the federal court draws the boundaries, it is not subject to Section 5 pre-clearance.

[freepcrusher]

i know this is slightly off topic, but I heard somewhere recently that Drew Brees had a grandfather who was a congressman in the 1970s and 1980s. Did any of you guys know this?

[RI]

i know this is slightly off topic, but I heard somewhere recently that Drew Brees had a grandfather who was a congressman in the 1970s and 1980s. Did any of you guys know this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Hightower

[jimrtex]

Rep. Barton files in state in Navarro County, at 12:01 A.M. Sunday.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/05/23/3097836/facing-legislative-inaction-barton.html

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rep. Barton files in state in Navarro County, at 12:01 A.M. Sunday.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/05/23/3097836/facing-legislative-inaction-barton.html

How is this expected to impact the map?  Any chance of the court's map being less gerrymandered than what the legislature would've produced.

[krazen1211]

Rep. Barton files in state in Navarro County, at 12:01 A.M. Sunday.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/05/23/3097836/facing-legislative-inaction-barton.html

http://jacksonvilleprogress.com/local/x108199430/Congressional-redistricting-likely-in-special-session

Congressional redistricting likely in special session





These clowns basically need someone to tell them what to do and I'm glad Barton is stepping up to the plate.

Politico though is throwing out the numbers. Smith plan is apparently a 25-11 plan, which is somewhat lame, but they claim Barton's plan is also a 25-11 plan, which is just silly as the Barton plan doesn't create the most important Dem district to make. Looking at that plan, Barton's is 26-10 that gives back the Farenholdt district.

[jimrtex]

Rep. Barton files in state in Navarro County, at 12:01 A.M. Sunday.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/05/23/3097836/facing-legislative-inaction-barton.html

How is this expected to impact the map?  Any chance of the court's map being less gerrymandered than what the legislature would've produced.

A federal court is required to follow past legislative intent.  They can only make the minimal changes to make the plan legal.  If you look at the 2001 plan, they left as much of the 1991/2/6 gerrymander in place as possible.

A state court might be a little more aggressive, but you could end up having it appealed and overturned.  That is what more or less happened in 2001.  A state court plan would still need to be precleared.

The legislature just moved the filing deadline to November-December (2011).  So a plan probably has to be in place by the first of October.  If it is a State plan, you would have to begin preclearance in early August.

[krazen1211]

Perry says he'll call a special session once they have a deal.

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/perry-session-on-congressional-maps-possible/

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Any map that means Green could possibly lose won't get preclearance, and would probably be found illegal in court.

[Dgov]

Any map that means Green could possibly lose won't get preclearance, and would probably be found illegal in court.

Why?  Is Gene Green's incumbency protected under the VRA?

Also, as I mentioned earlier, you can make the district much more Hispanic (to about 65-67% VAP Hispanic) without making it much less Republican (about 52% McCain).

If the Courts are going to shoot down a 65% Hispanic VAP District (More than his current one was in 2000 BTW), they're going to shoot down any map the Republicans propose.  Even then, unless the Courts decide to radically redraw the map instead of just adding back in the 60% Hispanic/30% Black precincts I threw into the 18th, there's really no risk to any other Republican incumbents.  And again, in that case they'd throw out any Republican map anyway.

[Verily]

Gene Green specifically is not protected, but the preferred Hispanic candidate is. Any 52% McCain district would fail the VRA because it would not typically elect the preferred candidate of the Hispanic voters, which makes it an illegal dilution of Hispanic voting power--regardless of how heavily Hispanic the seat is. (Assuming, of course, that the preferred Hispanic candidate is a Democrat, which they usually are. It is possible, though, to draw 55% Hispanic seats in South Florida that would elect only Democrats. That would likely also be illegal.)

[krazen1211]

Perry says he'll call a special session once they have a deal.

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/perry-session-on-congressional-maps-possible/

Apparently its a go. Dewhurst is putting it on the special session, under majority vote  rather than 2/3.


http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2011/05/31/redistricting_map_splits_travi.html?cxntfid=blogs_postcards


Hispanics of course are getting the Doggett district. That looks like a done deal. They definitely took a play from the Will County playbook.

At least among the leaders of the House and Senate, this plan looks like consensus.





Travis County would be split into five congressional districts, up from three, under a redistricting map proposed this morning by the leaders of the Texas House and Senate Redistricting committees.

[krazen1211]

And, wow.

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

Plan 125 - PLANC125 - SOLOMONS-SELIGER CONGRESSIONAL PROPOSAL
 
This might just be it. And it is glorious in its own way. This could be the 27-9 map we're looking for.

The 33rd connects Arlington with Parker County. Safe R.

The 34th is the new Solomon Ortiz district that bypasses Nueces County and picks up some Hidalgo County Democrats.

The 15th might go Republican at a glance. The 28th experty snakes into Bexar County to grab what I think are the Bexar County blacks, which keeps the Hispanic VAP down. The 20th moves into the Leon Valley. The 23rd grabs a lot more conservative whites and ditches the most liberal hispanics.

The 35th is the vacant Austin to San Antonio district, probably Hispanic, while the 25th becomes a safe R.

The 36th is an absurdity connecting downtown Houston with Grimes County, Tyler County, and Beaumont/Port Arthur. Safe R as well. The 36th is pretty much the height of absurdity.

Tarrant is cracked 5 ways. Travis is cracked 5 ways. Dallas is cracked 5 ways. Harris is part of 9 Congressional districts....

[Brittain33]

This is what results when you try to do a least-change map for incumbents and add four new districts and when you despise one particular congressman.

[freepcrusher]

looks like a good map, but the Metroplex map will never survive in court

[krazen1211]

This is what results when you try to do a least-change map for incumbents and add four new districts and when you despise one particular congressman.

You referring to Ron Paul? Or Doggett?

They didn't have to do anything like this, though. I don't know why they just didn't split Montgomery County between Brady and Poe, and kept the 36th looking sane.

[Brittain33]

The 15th might go Republican at a glance. The 28th experty snakes into Bexar County to grab what I think are the Bexar County blacks, which keeps the Hispanic VAP down.

I cheated and looked at the reports. The 15th is 80% VAP Hispanic (similar to 16th) and the 28th has a trivially small Black population, FWIW. Doggett could still win the primary in the 35th, I believe.

[Brittain33]

This is what results when you try to do a least-change map for incumbents and add four new districts and when you despise one particular congressman.

You referring to Ron Paul? Or Doggett?

They didn't have to do anything like this, though. I don't know why they just didn't split Montgomery County between Brady and Poe, and kept the 36th looking sane.

Doggett. I didn't consider the impact on Paul. Maybe Paul can primary Farenthold if he doesn't like the new 14th? Farenthold doesn't seem tough to defeat.

The 36th is completely absurd, the only explanation that makes sense to me was that they wanted Brady to have all familiar territory.

[Brittain33]

For the record: I do not care if Timothy or Bob condemn this map.

[krazen1211]

The 15th might go Republican at a glance. The 28th experty snakes into Bexar County to grab what I think are the Bexar County blacks, which keeps the Hispanic VAP down.

I cheated and looked at the reports. The 15th is 80% VAP Hispanic (similar to 16th) and the 28th has a trivially small Black population, FWIW. Doggett could still win the primary in the 35th, I believe.

Oh, I did not even know they had those reports. That makes things so much easier, thanks.

[Brittain33]

Wasn't there some kind of Barton vs. Smith fight over redistricting? From the looks of Barton's district, he lost. His district looks like Sessions's. Winnable, but with a large number of Democrats.

[krazen1211]

Wasn't there some kind of Barton vs. Smith fight over redistricting? From the looks of Barton's district, he lost. His district looks like Sessions's. Winnable, but with a large number of Democrats.

He won the battle but lost the war. Barton always wanted to avoid the Dem district in DFW. Naturally that means that he would have to grab some areas somewhere. Smith never had that issue as there are 2 Democrats in that area.

I have to imagine though that Barton is not happy with THAT many of those areas.


http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/texas-state-lawmakers-unveil-congressional-map/


Edit: You are right about the 15th though. It's about 59% Obama. Might be enough to beat Hinojosa for a cycle, but that's about it. Moving Harlinglen in would drop that to about 57%.

[Dgov]

Gene Green specifically is not protected, but the preferred Hispanic candidate is. Any 52% McCain district would fail the VRA because it would not typically elect the preferred candidate of the Hispanic voters, which makes it an illegal dilution of Hispanic voting power--regardless of how heavily Hispanic the seat is. (Assuming, of course, that the preferred Hispanic candidate is a Democrat, which they usually are. It is possible, though, to draw 55% Hispanic seats in South Florida that would elect only Democrats. That would likely also be illegal.)

I was being sarcastic about Gene Green

Still, I don't really see how this interpretation could actually work.  The Problem is that the current 23rd and 27th would therefore not count as VRA-Districts anymore since they recently elected a candidate that the Hispanic-Majority didn't vote for.  Those are court-drawn districts, and I literally don't think you can make them more DEM while still adding more Hispanic-majority districts to the state.

Also, if its a straight "They Have to vote for Democrats" Rule, there's really no point in even submitting a map.   By Definition, the Texas map would have to be at least 24-12 Republican at minimum to even satisfy it, rendering the whole damn thing a pointless exercise in the first place.

[Verily]

They don't have to always vote for the preferred Hispanic candidate. Just often enough that the Hispanic voting influence is not clearly being diluted. (And what they did with Farenthold reflects that; he got a safe seat, and they created a new Hispanic seat to replace the Farenthold seat.)

TX-23 is similar; it can elect Republicans sometimes, it just has to generally reflect Hispanic voter will. Which the old probably does, but the new one probably does not and may get thrown out. (It would be easy enough to up the Democratic percentage anyway--Corpus has a bunch of Hispanics who could be taken, for example, and the new TX-28 and TX-15 are packed more than they need to be.)

And, yes, the map does have to be 24-12. Or, at least, it has to be at least 24-10-2 or so.